S&P will be near 600 in the next month or so (I'll take a little flexibility and say it'll get there in the next 5-8 weeks). The global equity crash that began 18 months ago will get a massive second wind as warped quantitative easing fails to accomplish Bernanke's desires (unless he desires to destroy the American Economy).
Well Sir if you would... Please explain to a dumb redneck - why I would want to get out Thanks Maybe I should add - instead of shorting it
By lo all the bulls are going to laugh at this post, im not because I do agree the bottom is not in yet, every talking head is becoming bullish saying most of this recession is behind us, they have no clue how long this recession is going to last, I put it at least a 5 year recession, maybe even longer. As for this latest rally, another oversold bear market rally. The fed is trying so hard to get this economy back on track its become a laughing matter at this point. The economy may start to show signs of stabalizing however any kind of growth we have seen in the past decade will not be seen for many years. Sell the rallies if you havent bulls, this market is going to fall hard once again, see you all back at new lows in due time.
Just get out and buy back at fresh market lows. No need to hold long, the economy has found no footing. Inflation is going to run rampant over the next decade, thanks to liquidity injections that they think will help an economic collapse.
The market is moving up because they see the future increase in inflation. The doesn't mean the market will not tank again. It also means that I in no way would ever make the type of trade many of you here discuss. Simply reckless trading talk period.
I've yet to be wrong on 4 out of my last 4 macro calls. The only people would claim differently are just completely biased, and won't accept truth. I doubt I'll be wrong on this call, either. What we're witnessing now is global job losses on a massive scale that is only accelerating, the shrinking of credit to fuel consumer and business spending, incredible tensions between formerly amicable trading partners, militaristic tones growing between old enemies, a bottomless pit of falling consumer confidence, record shrinkage in exports in all export-dependent nations, rising credit card, auto and home delinquency/foreclosure rates, and discordant attempts by major economic powers to fight the death spiral in the global economy as these nations can't agree on a strategy, let alone implement a rational one (Europe is tight fisted with monetary expansion while Bernanke is on a f**king bender with his 'quantative easing,' effectively spending 1.3 trillion taxpayer dollars on the shittiest assets imaginable, from 30 year treasuries to the note on Billy Budweiser's double wide). All Bernanke is doing is running around patching holes in the damn with bubble gum, in a wide reaching, schizophrenic, ad hoc attempt to revive credit markets and spending, and reflate toxic asset values. It won't work. Money on the consumer side is not circulating, and monetary policy can not and will not fix the woes caused by panicked global consumers spending only on the bare necessities.
All due respect Sir I don't care if your right or wrong I don't care if the market goes to 1M, or 0 I want to know why I should get out I make money 2 1/2 times faster when it drops... Why do I want to get out - instead of shorting it ... please explain - You may know something I don't, and I like learning Thank You Redneck
Inflation is not good for equities. Just look at the cpi vs the market in the 70's. A few resource/gold/oil stocks my do well in an inflationary environment but hard assets work best. Obama is going to keep us in recession for 4 years so maybe the stagflation won't be so bad.