At what point do people believe one may have a clue? When they're right twice? Three times? 4? Don't be sucked in by vague, bullish talk about 'cheap equities.' They will become much cheaper, and for some time.
I may have come off as hypocritical and illogical... but I certainly didn't mean to. I certainly can spot the massive problems in the economies of the world. Frankly by now anyone who cannot would have to be blind, deaf and dumb as it's pretty obvious the world is in a depression and headed for very troubled times... the likes of which no one has seen since the Great Depression. My point was that for me... predictions mean nothing unless they are backed by price action on the charts that I can trade and profit from. I can have something written in stone and I still won't trade that until I see confirming price action. I trust the charts... not any economist, politician, Fed reserve governor, guru trader #257 etc. Back in August/September when the crap was really starting to hit the fan I said to several people I thought the Dow for example would likely get down to 1500. That was an educated guess based on the world going into a severe depression far beyond anything we've seen in many generations. Will that prediction (wild guess?) of Dow 1500 come true? Who knows... but I'll trade forex crosses and any other markets that I feel I can make a profit in regardless of where the economy goes. I hope the hell the markets aren't pummeled to that level as many other facets of society will likely begin to break down and civil unrest across the world will likely take place... plenty of dire outlooks can be imagined. I'm sure many use their brain power to conjure up all types of macroeconomic viewpoints and then trade off those assumptions. I don't do that... but certainly more power to anyone with enough brains to come up with accurate forecasts and the guts to back those forecasts with trading capital. To each their own and I'm certainly not saying my way is the best or only way. I'm wrong half the time on my trades so I'm certainly not the smartest or most accurate trader around... luckily perfection isn't needed to make a steady income from the markets.
-Will that prediction (wild guess?) of Dow 1500 come true? Who knows... but I'll trade forex crosses and any other markets that I feel I can make a profit in regardless of where the economy goes.- bingo ... the great traders are out to win regardless of the market or who the other side is across the field they make their adjustments and move on to victory www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocV5bGHdYag
Although I don't share it, I respect this point of view, ntm... I personally do more macro, not charts or TA. To each their own, as you say. I am firmly short equities here. See no reason to be long something more junior in capital structure for small or even nonexistent yield pickup. See every reason to be short, given the macro outlook.
According to these two gentleman from GS, their clients would not be amused if ES falls below option strike 745.00 March : 02-02-09 07:06 PM Investors should buy put options on the Standard & Poorâs 500 Index because the benchmark for U.S. stocks may fall back to the 11-year low it reached in November, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. âDismalâ fourth-quarter profits and forecasts from companies as well as waning investor confidence in President Barack Obamaâs economic stimulus plan may drive the S&P 500 toward 752.44 in the next month, Goldman strategists said. For investors using a âput spreadâ strategy, the highest payoff would be generated through buying March 825 puts and selling March 745 puts, Krag âBuzzâ Gregory and John Marshall wrote in a report distributed to clients today. That trade would produce $1.85 in profit for every $1 invested should the S&P 500 drop to its November low, they said. The index declined 0.1 percent to 824.94 at 1:14 p.m. in New York today.
It was another slammer jammer. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/RATnKiVRSs0&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/RATnKiVRSs0&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>