Given the huge drops we have seen in GDP for the last quarter around the world, the much worse than anticipated potential write downs in Europe, the list of news out just last week goes on and on, I was amazed that we didn't break to new lows end of last week. That late rally Thursday saved the market's bacon but you don't get too many saves like that that stick. The new administration is fast losing the market's confidence to pull rabbits out of their hat that will make any meaningful difference in arresting the economic slide. And to be fair the Obama administration is saying that everything they are doing will take time to work and that things will get worse before they get better, doesn't get much clearer than that.
Wall St. tumbles on recession and bank anxiety Tuesday February 17, 2009, 10:11 am EST NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks sank on Tuesday on concern that the recession is worsening and that efforts to stabilize the beleaguered financial system may not be enough. The slide took the benchmark S&P 500 below the 800 level for the first time since the bear market low of November 21 as financials and shares of big energy companies weighed. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stock...377533.html;_ylt=AsuRfMt6fgFbuhY4hY1xune7YWsA
Europe is in deep trouble, as are U.S. states (and consumers). That article about 22 trillion U.S.D. of toxic assets being held (they tried to keep the number confidential) on the balance sheets of European Banks will haunt us all. Asia has pneumonia. America has TB. Europe has meningitis.
It doesnt matter which administration is in the house, no matter how much stimulus they push and tax credits they put through nothing is going to stop this, this crisis is in the tens of trillions of dollars.
Has anyone stopped to consider the true size of US economy if the ponzis are removed, if the public could just meet with the healthcare providers without the middlemen, if cars were driven nearer their modern day life potential, if people stuck to their chosen business instead of leveraging into get rich quick schemes; if people treated housing as a place to live and enjoy, etc etc. What do you think the size of US economy would be. 10Trillion or less Whatever figure you imagine is where this economy is heading and 800B of loose change is not going to stop it.
bylow is heavily short the balls sector, with emphasis in the courage subgroup. All kidding aside I just find it amusing that he would have the correct macro view and devote so much time to read and research and not put any trades based on that
Check out the Dow transports, the new tell? The sox and the Qs are both sitting on their down trend line. The sox has been a leading tell for a while now, if it closes below it is worth noting.
Personally, I make predictions about markets because when the prediction is both correct and at variance with market expectations, and I back it with decent $$$, I generally make substantial sums of money. Why is it acceptable to trade off chart patterns you have observed for years and find predictive, but not for someone else to trade off economic patterns they have observed for years and find predictive? Your viewpoint is illogical and hypocritical, not to mention close-minded - poor qualities for someone who hopes to continue making a living as a trader. Just because you cannot spot massive structural economic balances, understand their likely denouement, and trade profitably off that insight, does not mean that others are unable to do so.
Lots of risk for small return, I'll pass. I am however long puts on the S&P, and trading the index from the short-side as a long-term position. I will continue with that until stocks stop acting like they are in a bear market.