Next time I get a feeling that I could outguess the market, I would think about the two nobel prize winners in LTCM. They couldn't do it, how could I?
Your statement brings up a couple of good points: 1. You're not going to succeed by trying to outguess the market. If you do succeed, it's because you used proper money management. I know you've heard it a hundred times, but the KEY to making money is TAKING SMALL QUICK LOSSES and LETTING YOUR PROFITS RIDE and... 2. Trading is a business. And just like any business, it takes years to become expert in.
It cost me more $$ than I care to think about to discover that "I" was my only obsticle when it can to being a successful trader. Every day I thank God I found the way to remove "me" from the equation. I hope you are more successful and achieve this goal on your own, I could not! HAPPY NEW YEAR
I like systems , but will not buy one unless it is proven to be profitable with real money trading . Walter
Tell you what, I'm a pretty damn good analyst. I even call turning points to exact numbers all of the time, and I'm almost always right on target. I still have a hard time listening to my own calls, while others profit huge off of what I say. Trading and market analysis are two different things. With all that said, it definately does come down to good money management if you want to be profitable in the long run. I give myself daily profit and drawdown caps, weekly profit and drawdown caps, and even monthly drawdown and profit caps. I hear all of these traders telling me that I should hold trades for longer periods and blah blah blah. So I tried to do what other people have said about holding trades, and for the first time in my life I was listening to what others had to say about the market. For the first time in my life I started to lose money, and my little experiment with a different style of trading has kind of sucked. So if you can make money, even with your big ego, stick to whatever you are doing. Because most people aren't makin' a dime these days.
Hi, Just out of curiosity: What happens to Scholes and Merton after the LTCM collapse ? I heard that one of them was selling his house few years ago. Are they back to teaching ?