yer gut is flat out wrong i was screaming for people to buy HANS over and over again. sounds to me like sour grapes. fwiw, i don't trade (generally) stocks. i trade index futures. on an intraday basis. stocks and options are much longer holding periods. rarely intraday trades \
I agree, sentiment is growing. But sentiment was high in early 1987, and commodities had broken out of a base, bonds had broken down out of a symmetrical triangle by April 1987. Yet the stock market continued going up, until Black Monday. I would prefer to see a real technical reason to sell gold, but anyways, I have my stops and I have a profit cushion in gold from the last few days of trading so I'm not too worried. Thanks for the economic analysis (no sarcasm) I'll keep it in mind.
Mav You're wrong about everyone being long gold. Virtually nobody is and virtually everyone keeps calling for a top as they have done since $300. How can 'everyone' be long gold when the money invested in the Rydex gold fund is at 2-3 year lows and has been falling for the last year. Also, most Gold bugs are idiots and are not long. They think they've got the skill to trade in and out of the market and right now most of them are out because they sold towards the end of last year hoping to buy back at cheaper prices which so far haven't come. Also, hard to have economic 'stability' when you have such reckless and anti-prudent Central Bankers in control. Gold will top when we get a reversal of the 10:1 ratio which we've had since $300, ie for every 1 person says its going higher we have 10 saying it's a 'top'. So when we get 10 higher callers for 1 top caller that's the signal to take profits. Until then, do nothing, don't try and be clever, don't think and just hold on to your gold stocks, that by the way for most people is very hard to do
a further thought on the subject.. this is very far from the reality of the situation. almost all of the central banks and bullion banks in the world are trapped in short gold carry trades so magnificent in size that generally all reported central bank reserves around the world are overreported in the range of 30-50%. even much of the world's reserve gold doesn't exist except on paper, ironically.
can you clarify your position? as i pointed out, deflation has been historically good for gold and the weight of open spec interest is dwarfed by institutionalized gold lending. the only other things you expressed were your sense of fair value and a preference for china and silver. none of this is to say gold will necessarily appreciate. i'm interested in risks to the gold trade
nm, it's late and i forgot your following post about china bringing stability to world mkts. predicting the future is tenuous at best, i just have a hard time envisioning an orderly touchdown for dollar demand as china demands better reserves. i think any central bank move into gold is going to chase it up quickly, and the more expensive it gets the more imperitive it becomes for others to act thus the potential for exponentiality in metal. i don't know where the danger zone is for banks, but there is one.
Whoever started this thread.. spot gold 574, just $1 from resistance... Either cover, or face bankruptcy in errmmm a few weeks.