Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by gugaplex, Mar 25, 2006.
Gold will likely hit $575-ish and tumble $530's shortly thereafter.
why not just follow the trend?
I agree, but keep the leash tight and be prepared to have to re enter.
jeez. gold. it's a frigging bull market .
buy the pullbacks . sell the pops.
rinse, lather, repeat
can you find effective short entries? sure. but the risk/reward is vastly inferior to the long opportunities.
accumulate gold on dips. pare some off on selloffs.
are u late to the game? sure. you shoulda been buying gold several years ago.
also, gold stocks are CHEAP compared to spot gold. prices regress to a mean. shorting gold stocks is not the hi probability play.
gold stocks are cheap relative to gold.
at least understand the spread dynamics.
it's getting sort of annoying to hear you repeat this in every gold thread considering you're a hobbyist with a day job.. esp if ur talking about a grand or two of gold profits or more likely a few hundred bucks. unless you made heavy bank, then by all means commense patting urself on the back for an early call
i am not a hobbyist.
this is what i do for a living
and i guess i should pat myself in my back.
should i have invested MORE in gold?
but i am always more about risk management than going for the jugular
i am very happy with my gold profits. gold could go to zero tomorrow and it would still have been my most profitable investment over the last 5 years (second is the stock HANS)
now, i am just letting the gold investment ride, after taking a fair amount of profits.
it has moved from investment material to trade material
a good trading rule to follow is to buy dips in a bull market
this is a bull market in gold
and if u are not noticing how absurdly cheap gold is compared to equities, or how absurdly cheap gold stocks are compared to spot metal, then i suggest you may be the hobbyist
it was just your references to your day job and blowouts that gave the repetitious bragging a distressed tone. not even sure why i'm posting about it. a good person to study imo would be the dude who made 400k on his trade without a repeated need to be acknowledged for it. but obviously there's something deeper haunting me than anything you've said.
i'm just feeling good about finally having a toe in gold at this point and i totally concur, it looks very cheap. could be a ride, and i guess seasonally this is a tricky time to stay in this trade, but there were a few solid points to add to it this past week and i did. trying to catch a point along a long term trend that's safe to hold from, while offering enough opportuntity to make it worthwhile is going to take a lot of patience
i'm just waking up to opportunities outside the intraday, and a little pissed i didn't do so sooner. the inflation trend is one of the deepest ones i see, so, go gold
Who ever started this thread:
Get ready to go broke.
as i said. i have another fulltime job.
but this is not a hobby and this is my source of income
hobbies cost money.
jobs make money.
i never for one second treat trading as a hobby.
i respect that very much and sorry for being needlessly aggressive. congrats on a really good sounding trade
allowing my mind to wander, i'm imagining the artificial price depression of gold slowly begins to unwind and gold begins to catch up with industrial metals as well as platinum.
simultaneously the eq mkts put in a business cycle top. as M3 is created at unprecedented levels to service wreckless spending and debt, as well as 30 years of administrative meddling in economic reporting, the cycle of dollars out into creditor nations and back into our eq and real estate mkts starts to go exponential. this conveniently stabilizes paper real estate wealth since demand appears constant... conversion to euro and gold reserves accelerates
perhaps there's even an energy or political catalyst event, but since it's really the us consumer who's going broke as foreigners become the real owners of us assets, domestic consumption falls and international competition heats up for monetary stability everywhere at the same time as china and india face accelerating volatility in their dollar accounts. (basically now?)
this pressures rates upward at a time when the fed is nearly 180 degrees out of phase, shaking confidence in stimulative policy, the markets and home equity. hard commodities begin to trade increasingly in euros, the dollar slips. as it slips, a slow motion vortex is created between the dollar and consumption. maybe military spending accelerates in an attempt to shake the dollar's might. metals win
our entire global monetary and lending system bleeps like a heartbeat on an ecg as war and/or pork spending go exponential. i sell my 10 lot of 550 zg's for 3-5000.00 an ounce to someone who just wants a cup of coffee in a non-quarantined, radiation free zone for less than $17 and i retire as the last cheerful consumer on earth.
everyone will be ok, but a lot of 'money' is going to change hands. (it's a joke btw, i don't presume to actually know anything serious about global economics) but if nothing else, the gold bug camp makes for some very colorful fantasies and i am almost half-way into this position right now on a tentative basis. i'm willing to take a small loss on it and prepared to be completely wrong on monday morning, or maybe some monday morning in 2007, expecting it unfortunately as i attempt to ratchet into it. interesting to try and assemble the picture though
i like to think that by making this trade i decrease the liklihood of that outcome in my own small way. buy gold ... and arb decades of inevitable monetary policy. it's a force larger than any single person, government, or empire. could it be that simple? or is this just the familiar wall of worry
sometimes i wonder if the US will end up having to destroy parts of itself or create a massive war in order to survive as an economic entity.
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