=================== Art Cashin & Karol88 mentioned the French riots; dont think most Americans are that disorderly, but some are much worse. 1960's big city riots were rough.Kent State Campus killings showed dont mob the military, theyre trained to ''execute a mission'' There is some danger anywhere, some counties in Tennessee, have what they call ''Russian boars'' ,wild swine, as mean as any beast of the field . And many people , in 1930s knew how to catch a fish/quail; now many think fish only come out of a tuna can. Fuel is more concentrated. People clearly had better work habits in 1930s ; a well as Judeo-Christian principles were much more widespread, then.And many people in earlier times had more respect for the military/law & order; disrespect for military, could be deadly................................... Clearly there is more of a danger of riots,in big cities like Detroit; but with the big Muslim population there, maybe different this time, you think?????
The Great Depression had the veterans's march to Washington, and that ended with a few people getting killed.
With companies like Caterpillar, General Motors, MSFT, Pfizer, Boeing, etc. (Blue Chippers) laying off people buy the tens of thousands, the trickle down effect is going to be a force multiplier of historic proportions. I never thought a 15% 'official' unemployment rate would be possible a year ago, and now, not only do I think it's possible, but with each passing day, I hear more and more people that I think of as sensible and credible speaking along these ranges as definite possibilities. I don't watch CNBC that much, but I did go out of my way to catch the interview they did with Julian Robertson, and if any of you caught that, he basically could not have been more bearish - he essentially said 12%++ unemployment was more than just possible, and when asked if yields on U.S. treasuries would soon reach 7%, he said he didn't want to try and guess the ultimate rate, but 7% was 'conservative.' His favorite play was to short treasuries. He believes there's no way long bond yields won't soar if the government follows through on its half-assed plans to simply print and toss a shitload of money against the wall, in the hopes that one out of every 5 dollars 'sticks.'
The majority of American's are sheeople. They will not Riot. The "Riots" going on in Euro land are Socialist Students and some factory workers, in low numbers. 1000 people, 2000 in some small city in Russia. You had 2 million in DC to great the new idiot. Yes, 15% or even 20% is likley for unemployment. Was at a Gov. Dinner last night. Gov. Perry spoke clear and loud. Texas unemployment rate is 2.5% less than the 7.2. Texas Gov is agressive in seeking to attract more of the West and East Coast Businesses to come to Texas. Republican's run Texas, no unions, Guns, gold, land. Texas has its own Energy Grid, no State Tax. Major companies are moving to Texas in droves. Texas is fine.
I would not be so quick to say Americans will not protest. As has been said before, there is no pain. Buying coffee at McDonalds instead of Starbucks is not pain. For most, it is an expenditure (still)driven by choice, not out of necessity. Out of necessity is when the pain will be felt. That said, the boomers, with roots in peaceful (and not so peaceful) demonstrations, standing up for a set of morals and-or beliefs, are not and will not be afraid of being arrested or shunned by neighbors. Life goes full circle for them. Depressingly, I'm not sure about today's 20/30/40-somethings. When their sense of entitlement becomes threatened, it will become known. As for unemployment, December 2008 U6 is already at 13.5%. 15-20% is a no-brainer for U6. I expect U6 to go low-30s% For those that have no idea what U6 is here you go, in ET-approved Wikipedia format: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment about 1/2 way down the page in the section titled United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. And if anyone cares to challenge the statement about December 2008 U6 being at 13.5%, First I tell you that you are a dolt and you need to wake the fuck up. And here you go: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm Once unthinkable, now unstoppable obama-lama
You dont think there is a possibility of civil unrest in the US, I think there a really good chance this happens, you cannot compare 1920's and 1930's to 2000 and beyond, were in a completely different era. What is happening in the country today and around the world is something we have never witnessed before. Do you have any idea what the power of greed has done to this world today, I have no clue where we are headed but I can say that I believe its going to get alot worse before it even gets a tad bit better.