Get long wheat?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Pekelo, Feb 10, 2011.

  1. Pekelo


    I don't trade it but found this article:

    " Egypt had its Clavell moment on February 8 when the Food and Agricultural Organization warned that drought in China might require the world's largest wheat producer to import vast amounts of the grain, forcing the market price to levels never seen before."

    "Not until June will we know the extent of the damage to China's winter wheat crop, virtually all its production. Extremely low rainfall this winter parched more than 5 million hectares of 14 million hectares planted, and the next few weeks' weather will determine if the world faces a real shortage of the staff of life.

    Hoarding on the part of North African countries, starting with Algeria, has already pushed up the wheat price in the Mediterranean to a 20% premium over the price shown on the Chicago futures market. The immediate risk is that pre-emptive purchases of wheat will price the grain out of the reach of poor Egyptians, not to mention Pakistanis and Bengalis.

    And if reserve-rich China, usually self-sufficient, goes into the world market to buy millions of tons of wheat, the price of wheat can rise to an arbitrarily high level."
  2. All "that", and it closes sharply lower? :confused: :eek: :D
  3. Pekelo


    Only a moron would think that a longer term prediction could have an immediate effect...

    Let's get back to this topic in 2-3 months, shall we???
  4. Larson

    Larson Guest

    Mr. nazz is saying wheat "could" be putting in a short-term top. I am suspicious of these articles as well after wheat has had a good run. The price gets too high and there will be a global riot.:D
  5. 1) Was that "prediction" born out of logic or the madness of high prices? :confused:
    2) Take as much time as you need to ponder more on that. :cool:
    3) What is a "Clavell Moment"? I score "off the charts" on math tests but do poorly on verbal. :) :(
  6. Pekelo


    Hm, I never heard that rioting lowers the price of anything, but it will be interesting to see.
  7. ================
    Mr Pek;

    Long term wheat trends [years, decades/doublechecked it before posting]of wheat are STILL uptrending;
    while i enjoyed that news article, medium & short term its bearish[Downtrending & 50day moving average = bearish.................................................:D

    Its heading towards the June low;
    price & 50dma. Not a prediction, especially with long term trends =Up ttrending

    20 day chart & ;
    60 day chart=bearish, but 1 year thu 7 year thru 17 year trend
    ....=equals bullish.:cool: Parabolic time & price[not my favorite, but occasionaly useful ]says 7.77 area important

    murray t turtle
  8. Wheat is actually very bearish now...looking like it wants to hit 7.50 ASAP and then breakdown into the high 6.00's...I would say, NO, do not get long wheat now!
  9. Calling short Wheat at 7.86 now
  10. yep, it really happened...and still is...made +9 full points (not just ticks) today trading Wheat...thankful...
    #10     Mar 9, 2011