Germany must be forced out of the Euro Monetary Union.

Discussion in 'Economics' started by piezoe, Jul 17, 2015.

  1. sheda

    sheda

    Tic Toc
     
    #91     Jul 28, 2015
  2. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    It does help exports. The fact that the positive is offset elsewhere has nothing to do with the fact that exports have been shown to increase when a currency is devalued (modestly, not your hyperinflation examples, of course).
     
    #92     Jul 28, 2015
  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    Zimbabwe would not be an apropos example here. There are some parallels between the Argentine situation and Greece, but it is a strained comparison because Argentina had its own currency. It would seem closer parallels can be drawn between Greece and Puerto Rico. In any case, the Zimbabwe situation is not germane here.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2015
    #93     Jul 28, 2015
  4. Yes it may help exports sure. But the net effect is most often still negative. I do not recall any economy that pulled itself out of a recession because of its cheap currency. I believe that is where you put your trust or hope in with Greece which is that with their own currency they can deflate and start exporting like champions again. ExportIng what? Tourism? We had this discussion so many times already. You have so far not been able to demonstrate how that is supposed to work. Heck, most Greeks do not even understand econ 101: with lower demand they rather raise prices to make up for the revenue shortfall. In a way it's a perfect reflection of their mindset: a willingness to enjoy good times but the refusal to go through tough times.

     
    #94     Jul 28, 2015
    zdreg likes this.
  5. zdreg

    zdreg

    zimbabwe is germane. we are talking about the future with the current extreme left wing government. money printing is a tool used by these government to cover their excesses, particularly profligate spending.

    greece had its own hyperinflation later than germany. furthermore, while Germany has historical memory intact when it comes to hyperinflation , Greece by its actions does not. therefore we can expect the worse if greece should have its own currency.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...s-needed-to-bring-Greeks-to-their-senses.html
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2015
    #95     Jul 29, 2015
  6. zdreg

    zdreg

    "I was in France in May. What A lovely country! I have spent a great deal of time in Austria, and less, but always enjoyable, in Germany. I love all of these countries, and only wish them the very best."
    did you visit the banlieues(ghettos) of paris from which the caliph embracing europe will emanate?

    you should wish your own country the best. it is headed down the same road as greece and france. it likely will end up in a worst situation because it has seemingly permanent violent underclass who are clueless to the idea of work, has the highest incarceration rate and is spending money like a drunken sailor
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2015
    #96     Jul 29, 2015
  7. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    [​IMG]

    Unit Labor Costs in EMU - Brown Brothers Harriman


    The focus on the European periphery is in terms of the debt overhang. Many observers see excessive lending by banks and the sovereign debt over-hang as the main cause of European woes.

    Yet in some ways, these problems reflect a deeper cause: the lack of competitiveness. One of the key measures of competitiveness is unit labor costs. It is a function of wages, benefits and productivity.

    Prior to monetary union, many countries in Europe would, from time-to-time, alter their central rate in the Exchange Rate Mechanism in an attempt to boost competitiveness. Rather than constant minute prices changes, as under floating exchange rates, Europe had opted for a step function. During periods of stasis, the periphery, but France as well, would lose competitiveness, especially against Germany. A lower mid-point of the ERM band would be negotiated, and the process would continue.

    Monetary union blocks that path. The loss of competitiveness is masked by the accumulation of debt. The end of the global credit cycle in 2007-2008 warned of the limits of such a strategy, but many European officials were caught up in the schadenfreude over the US sub-prime mess to appreciate the storm headed its way.

    The risk of lending to some home buyers in the US was mispriced. In Europe, the risk of lending to some countries was mispriced. Spain's 10-year bond traded briefly through Germany. Greece sold 10-year bonds in November 2009 around 200 bp on top of Germany.
    [​IMG]

    This chart shows unit labor costs from a number of EMU members. It is drawn from Eurostat data was recently posted in The Telegraph. There are several observations to be shared. First, as the debt levels were rising in the early years of monetary union, the periphery was losing competitiveness as measured by the unit labor costs. Second, German unit labor costs trended lower from 2000 through the start of the global financial crisis. It is this divergence that became particularly problematic. The path to currency devaluation was blocked.

    This forced an internal devaluation. It could have occurred through structural reforms that lifted productivity. However, ultimately the more painful path of lower wages and pensions was chosen instead. There is nothing in the Maastricht Treaty that established the monetary union forced this course. It was the failure of leadership more than the lack of an optimal currency zone that is the root cause.

    Still progress in lowering unit labor costs has been seen. The adjustment is taking place at variable speeds. Of the countries included in the graph, Portugal's unit labor costs have converged the most with Germany. Germany's unit labor costs have stopped falling. They have risen gradually since 2008. Unit labor costs in Greece and Spain have adjusted, but more is needed to restore competitiveness. Improvement in Ireland has stalled. Italy is the outlier as it has hardly shown any improvement.
     
    #97     Jul 29, 2015
  8. According to Greek newspaper Kathimerini, a third suit against Varoufakis is expected to be handed to parliament over his involvement in planning a potential parallel payments system which could have been used to remove Greece from the eurozone.
     
    #98     Jul 29, 2015
  9. piezoe

    piezoe

    You have confused what Germany did after WWI , what Argentina did, and what Zimbabwe did with the alternatives being suggested for Greece. You may not understand the difference between real printing and expanding a money supply via bond purchases by a central bank -- the latter is often referred to as "printing" but it is technically not. There is a very big difference..
     
    #99     Jul 29, 2015
  10. zdreg

    zdreg


    what is the difference?
     
    #100     Jul 29, 2015