Not necessarily, it could be bullish or neutral. You mentioned in your posts why certain factors would not inhibit (and have not inhibited) bull markets in the past in future--this is a passiv stance. I believe you have yet to establish one point that supports the bullish case of German real estate in particular. Keep in mind that many folks responding to you have owned real estate in Germany (including myself).
Generalization won't help when you are investing a particular market. The attitude toward real estate in Germany is fairly unique and has deep cultural roots. Any bull move would come from foreign investment. There is also nothing to prevent German housing from going side-ways for the next decades (just like U.S. real estate has done most of the time). Bingo! And look at their stock and real estate markets now... flat, nada. Well, if you really want to go for it I wish you luck. Just be sure no to invest in an area that gets taken over by Turks. (No, I'm not a racist and yes this is a real problem).
Hi Cutten, I came across this thread, and I've been to Germany recently just for checking out investment alternatives in real estate. Unfortunately, I have problems finding a suitable investment vehicle. Are you planning buying properties outright and manage it yourself? I had a look at some closed end funds, but the fees are horrendous!
I have thought about this and it might be worth considering further. In fact, even before this thread was created by Cutten I had been considering real estate purchases in Germany. Especially since it was my home town for over 12 years. The main consideration really is the cost of holding your position in the investment. This is akin to paying dividends when shorting stocks or paying interest on a negative forex carry trade. In the case of realestate this would be taxes, maintenance fees, etc. The lower this cost, the longer one can wait (if necessary) for a market to rise in value. Since real estate can go sideways for quite a while, this is an important factor. I know homeowners in the States that are facing just this problem. Their taxes are in the 4-5 figures and they can't sell their home. And if they actually put money into their homes to make them sell, they get re-evaluated and their taxes go up even further... welcome to hell. Due to legislative centralization in the EU this ought to be less of a problem (i.e. less local corruption). Another issue are laws pertaining to renters. These have in the past been very strict and it could still be very hard to get a renter out in case you wanted to sell. Something else to look into are which German real estate / loan / mortgage laws could possibly be merged into general EU law (and with that which changes could take place). Considering the past 3 years' occurances, they will probbalt Let's revive the discussion...
this is off topic, but some of you have lived in Berlin. I'm considering moving there. Do you know of any good trading arcades or prop firms?