Since this situation involves a "closed environment" with a navy ship and an island with no other infections beyond these sailors -- I expect in time a complete study of the situation will be revealed by military medical authorities. Especially when they have to go in front in Congress and defend their rejection of any recruit who had COVID-19. Keep in mind that the first five sailors were sick weeks apart between the first symptoms and the second symptoms. This does bring up the question - if only a percentage of people who recover from COVID-19 are immune to catching it again --- then what is this percentage? Plus the additional question - if immunity to COVID-19 only lasts for a period of time after recovering then what is this period of time? Until firm answers are provided by the medical community to both of these questions --- then any proposal for "natural herd immunity" simply is not realistic.
Tell me how just letting the low risk group run about is going in Brazil. Let's go over the definition of R) also known as Rnaught again - R0 is the infectious rate of a disease with no mitigation. R - the infection rate number is the rate of a disease with mitigation at a certain time. R0 rate of a disease is exactly the same of low risk and high risk individuals. The idea that a "low risk group may have an R0 of close to zero" is nonsense. Rnaught is the same for everyone. High risk people who are probably staying at home are not superspreaders. Your superspreader is your low risk individual who goes out to crowded gatherings and spreads the disease to a large number of individuals. The perfect recent example being the COVID positive party guy in South Korea who went to 3 discos and infected at least 160 people with 46,000 traced by contact leading to a lockdown of the local city and for all discos to be closed in the country to prevent this from ever occurring again.
I know people in Georgia and The State is doing fine. God Bless Governor Brian Kemp. A true warrior. Not afraid to take a stand and deliver. In Georgia they are going to make it by any means necessary. Good to know there are still some real Americans in positions of responsibility that know how to do their job. Again - God Bless Governor Brian Kemp
So tell me again why all the North Carolina restaurant owners are re-opening dine-in with enthusiasm while most restaurant owners in Georgia refuse to open dine-in a month after their reopening. Restaurant owners eager, excited that eating out is once again an option in Raleigh https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/re...-is-once-again-an-option-in-raleigh/19109556/
The use of the word may tells all. These scientists conducted a limited study and somehow have the wisdom to project that their findings are absolute. There is no such thing. Even a vaccine like the flu vaccine is limited because they try to anticipate what flu virus will strike that year so, at the most, you get a limited amount of protection. I have had gotten sick of the flu even with the flu vaccine but, maybe, not as worst if I did not get a flu shot. Nothing beats natural immunity. In any sample, there would be outliers which is a very tiny percentage. That is unavoidable but, ridiculous if you say 97% or 98% got immunity from say smallpox or measles, that it is useless after all, 2% still does not have absolute protection. Fact still is you have immunity for most people and that should suffice. And for every study you put out, I am sure there are multiple studies stating the opposite because researchers do not have a vested interest in grant monies to keep conducting studies? That is called bias and even before you conduct a study? That is why figures need to be audited so that, BS studies are exposed for the sham that they are.
Georgia and all these states that opened will be fine. It is the extreme liberal states with high death rates from Corona Virus like New York, New Jersey and Michigan who should be worried. There won't be much jobs left when they finally, open their states. Of course, the liberal way is higher taxes on top of that. California is just a preview of what extreme liberal states and their governors purposely keeping their states shutdown for petty, political purposes will reap. Let us see how bad it gets for these extreme liberal states 6 months down the line. That would be come the November 3, 2020 elections.
Explain to us why Georgia has a much higher unemployment figure - 40.3% than all 49 other states. Higher than New York, New Jersey, California, and Michigan. Despite Georgia being open already for a month they lead the nation in unemployment. I'll fetch my popcorn so I can be entertained with your explanation of why this is. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ikely-please-trump.343634/page-6#post-5106995
it could a low risk individual who has a great many contacts... but if that were the soley the case... we would most likely be seeing far more clusters developing all over in areas around say costcos and super markets. we may not know what makes a super spreader right now... but the data seems to be showing that super spreaders are responsible for 80 percent of the cases. your analysis based on the SIR model and R0 is not useful for Covid. Basically your models sucks and you have been full of shit this entire time. Its is very possible most people with the virus do not infect anyone. I know multiple people who had it and did not even infect a family member. I will also tell you your models absolutely suck for the following reason. If the R0s you have been pushing were accurate for Covid. A virus in which half the people are asymptomatic. And many would be infectious before they new they were sick... There is no fucking way... this virus would not have erupted and destroyed Sweden and us and everywhere that is not completely shut down... == The problem, according to Reich & Co., is that SIR is focused heavily on one number above all others, the "R-naught," the theoretical transmission rate, how many people, on average, each infected person can infect. It's been the dominant focus of models of COVID-19 for months now. Instead, Reich and team emphasize not the average, but the extraordinary cases in society, the people who have many more contacts than most people, and can therefore infect an unusually large amount of people. Super-spreaders have been studied for many years with respect to numerous epidemics. The 2014-2015 outbreak of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, or "MERS," was traced to one South Korean individual who spread the disease to numerous individuals, two of whom spread the disease to further large groups. Similar patterns of "index" patients were observed with Ebola and with the SARS outbreak in 2002 to 2003. https://www.zdnet.com/article/googl...uper-spreaders-are-a-big-part-of-the-problem/ Scientists don't know exactly why certain people "shed" virus, meaning, pass it on, more than others. It might have to do with weakened immunity in those individuals, but there are other hypotheses. (Scientist Gary Wong and colleagues at the Chinese Academy of Science provided an excellent explanation of the super-spreader phenomenon in a paper a few years ago, and their work is cited by Reich & Co.) Reich, who is a data scientist at Google, doesn't have the explanation for why super-spreading happens. Rather, he and colleagues take the fact of super-spreading as a given to create predictions of what super-spreading does in a pandemic.
It was because a Democratic Congress sanctioned unemployment benefit + PUA of $600 a week - with no oversight. If you make less than $18 an hour, unemployment pays more. Who would ever thing that paying people unemployment + an extra $600 a week with no real oversight would be a problem? Obviously not the Democrats. This is the main reason that Atlanta's mayor - keisha lance bottoms (I kid you not, that is her real name) is urging everyone to stay at home - Telling her people - "You "ain't" black if you ain't taken that." Black's might only make up 13% of the US population but they are 32% of the Georgia population. Georgia has a much Higher black Population than most states.
jem - This is way over gwb - tradings head. The skinny - the data has and still is being collected incorrectly. Trash in = Trash out.