George Soros: future is not only onknown, it's unknowable

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by crgarcia, Jul 13, 2009.

  1. Equilibrium applies best only to markets that deal with known quantities. But financial markets deal with quantities that are not only largely unknown but unknowable. They discount a future that is contingent on how the financial markets assess it at present. The appropriate concept, in my view, is reflexivity, not equilibrium. Reflexive processes are not just unpredictable; they are genuinely indeterminate because the outcomes depend on the predictions that investors have made. The process may be self-correcting, in which case you tend toward equilibrium, or it can be initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating, in which case you have a boom and a bust.
  2. go and get a life!

    don't post whatever you read or hear, you are too eager for attention, just like your president (I assume you are American).
  3. Go, you make a reality check!

    There's almost nil chances that you'll make money (in the long run) by trading commodities!
  4. That is not Soros's conclusion. It is your own.
  5. As we know,
    There are known knowns.
    There are things we know we know.
    We also know
    There are known unknowns.
    That is to say
    We know there are some things
    We do not know.
    But there are also unknown unknowns,
    The ones we don't know
    We don't know.

    —Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
  6. bellman


    Wow, an exclusive interview by geocities!
  7. Soros is not a trader.

    He is an investor (and sometimes a market manipulator).
  8. That's what he says, yes, but he makes plenty of quick trades in FX and futures. What he means is probably that he trades on a longer time frame than a day-trader and is not like a floor trader. I greatly admire Soros but from reading all his books I've come to realize that he can be self-serving with his language.

    It might be best to call him a speculator, if the word weren't so sullied. He plays the global macro game -- that's maybe what he's referring to. He's not scalping a few points because MACD turned or order flow is this or that way.

    Also to be noted, Soros "invests" in accounts managed by what he might call traders, even day traders. Niederhoffer comes to mind.

    A Motley Fool article published just yesterday:

    Are You A Trader Or An Investor?
    "A neat example to separate the two is to have a quick look at two of the most famous living investors – or should that be traders!? Warren Buffet is unequivocally an investor. As a rule, he buys companies which he perceives as undervalued and holds onto his investment as long as he continues to like the company's prospects. In other words, he has no fixed price or plan for exiting the stock, but instead reviews and updates his thoughts on its prospects over time.

    <b>George Soros, on the other hand, is a trader by nature.</b> [my emphasis] Most famously, he shorted sterling when he thought the currency to be overvalued and ready to be withdrawn from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. This is a good case in point. The trade was short term and had a target exit price; when the pound was allowed to float freely, he exited his position making an estimated $1.1bn in the process."
  9. Soros manipulated the market with his pound bet. He got central bank info.
    Besides $10B actually moves the market.
  10. Pekelo


    Today when the SPX was at 946 I predicted that it would peak at 951-52 and I even gave a reason for it.(as opposed to pulling numbers out of my ass)

    The SPX high of the day was at 951.62.

    Now I am either extremely lucky, or sometimes for some people the future is predictable.

    Oh, I am just kidding with you guys, I am the luckiest SOB on this site!! :)
    #10     Jul 20, 2009