IIRC, some people on here had a trading contest in a dedicated journal years ago. How they verified the results or trades...I have no idea. Maybe some ET participants can enter something like this, though: Home - World Cup Trading Championships World Cup Trading Championships (worldcupchampionships.com) Let's go, gents!
Given the fact that shortgages were a result of low/zero productivity, it should have been easy to predict upcoming inflation much sooner & raise rates bit earlier, say, 6 months prior ~ ?
I think so and the same can be said for many other countries too. The central banks apparent apathy towards what appeared to be obvious inflation was and is quite baffling.
To add in my two fiat-cents... and I may be showing my age here, but people are giving too much credit/worry at times like this to the Fed. Keep in mind that a significant amount of money printing actually is done by your average Joe-Blow bank down the street. When a person wants a loan, they go to the bank, and the bank agrees to this, basically pulling magical money out of thin air. You have now money and debt that was literally pulled out of thin air and made-up on the spot (on paper). Now, when they start to get too greedy and sub-prime loans bubble... guess what happens? I lived through that shit-show once... got to watch it first hand. And watched it blow-up as expected.
Of course you are referring to credit created by fractional reserve baking. But lets not forget this kind of "magical money", as you call it, disappears when the loan that created it is paid off. The Fed influences credit by raising or lowering interest rates, and via its power to regulate. Without fractional reserve banking many of us would still be living with our parents until middle age. It is fractional reserve banking that is responsible for raising living standards throughout modern capitalist economies. I don't think anyone in their right mind wants to get rid of fractional reserve banking! It wasn't fractional reserve banking that caused the mortgage fiasco and financial crisis you are referring to. The cause was multivariate, however in large part it was due to a breakdown in loan underwriting standards and failure of the chief regulator, the Fed, to act in a timely manner to bring a stop to this, despite the full knowledge of the Fed as to what was going on. The Fed Chairman at the time, Alan Greenspan, has said that he believed Bankers would not act against their own best interests. I find this explanation incomplete and unsatisfactory. I think it's far more likely that he thought, either consciously or subconsciously, that the situation, if you leave it alone and given time, would correct itself spontaneously without undo harm. His generation of economists had been taught incorrectly that markets in disequilibrium will move spontaneously back toward equilibrium. That's not necessarily true.
You raise an interesting point that I have no doubt will go right over the heads of most here. I want to think about what you posted however. In other words, should pandemic induced falling productivity, especially in the face of artificially propped up demand via fiscal measures, been a harbinger of eventual supply shortage fueled inflation that the Fed overlooked and was unprepared for? The Fed announced that inflation was temporary, meaning, I suppose, that they thought productivity would rapidly kick back up post pandemic. Apparently the world economy had other plans.
I mistook you for someone else in the past which led me to a stupid choice, but one thing didn't changed - your knowladge level. Curious about the answer.
%% LOL/mostly right+ right about about white. Couple of different points; a bear market makes daily lows every day, so wait a bit more + more if you really like low$\LOL. ................................................................ The other point is what many people think is white\OK watch this\ true, a polar bear has white good looking hair, actually its skin is black to absorb the sun. Notice polar bear nose area , black skin \LOL. Even a black bear comes in brown phases + albino black bear is white LOL.