Joe Biden now leads Donald Trump by 9.3% in the FiveThirtyEight national average. He leads by 7.6% in Michigan, 6.4% in Pennsylvania, and 7.1% in Wisconsin. He leads by 4.5% in Arizona, 3.7% in Florida, and 2.3% in North Carolina. Philip Bump: Even if state polls are underestimating Trump as much as they did in 2016, Biden is in position to win.
The latest Rasmussen Reports survey offers a grim forecast for the president. It shows him trailing Biden by 12 points, 52 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. That’s a 4 point swing from last week, and a 13 point swing from two weeks ago — when a Rasmussen survey showed Trump leading by 1.
From Quinnipiac: FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 40% PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 54%, Trump 41% IOWA: Biden 50%, Trump 45% From Marquette Law School: WISCONSIN: Biden 46%, Trump 41% From New York Times/Siena College: OHIO: Biden 45%, Trump 44% NEVADA: Biden 48%, Trump 42% From Cherry Communications: FLORIDA: Biden 49%, Trump 44% From EMC Research: TEXAS: Biden 49%, Trump 49% From Data Orbital: ARIZONA: Biden 48%, Trump 43% From Civiqs: TEXAS: Biden 48%. Trump 48% IOWA: Biden 48%, Trump 47% From Emerson College: PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 47%