Don't get me wrong. The free-market world hates the liberal political situation in the U.S.-the market's been sloppy since the Dem Congress entered in early 2007-but the unsettling criss at the the Treasury has flown under the radar in the mist of the inauguration hoopla. Geithner is unexpectedly not going to happen and the market is pretty freaked. Already a few editorials are calling for his head and with the inauguration now history the press will focus increasingly on Geithner's nomination. He's no better than a 1 in 3 to make it......
Fading intrade again?I dont know, 94% seems a lot to fade. I thought the depression contract was mispriced but I was missing something the intraders didnt, the contract wasnt for a depression at all. market seem to be smarter than us a lot of the time
My job as a trader is to enter an efficient market-I accept the last print as present sentiment value- and bet that today hasn't properly valued to-morrow. Intrade is like any other market. It doesn't know the future. Case in point were the VP candidates. Neither Palin nor Biden were even hinted as poss nominees by Intrade bettors-myself included.