Ok, I'm a little confused. How is 453k in jobs lost this month positive. I mean, we are still loosing 453k jobs and have been loosing that amount for the last year. I could see if there was a drastic change, to say 300 or 250k lost. And if we are loosing around 400K per month how is unemployment still at 9.5%. (Of course I know the numbers are bullshit) 1.7% gdp. I can see that. The inventory push is over this quarter. Many companies are stocked. But consumer spending is still low and retail looks to lag. So, revised upwards based on? The market has had the best september in 70 years. Yea, coming of one of the worst lows since the Great Depression.....lol. Man, I hope people do not drink this coolaid, and loose what little they have left.
No one said it is positive. Some might buy stocks in this market but they will be surprised by a heavy sell when we get a seemingly positive news in the near future. There is always a delay to the market reaction. I know for a fact that tech stocks will not do well in Q1 next year. Just imagine what could be Q1 GDP. Maybe 0.7 or 0.5.
Could be another example of "market climbing a wall of worry". I'm always amused by that notion... you know, some news is bad and the market deflects it or even rallies... I believe this phenomenon is due to nearly perpetual optimism by market players of (1) "somehow" it will work out for the positive, or (2) the Powers will prevent a decline or even goose a rally... regardless of the fundamentals. Some truth to all of this... and supporting rationale for playing the markets technically.
its a shell game, instead of watching the fundamentals, we have converted over mentally to what the fed is going to do, we are following the fed, scary
Unemployment number stays flat because there are as many not being counted due to duration as there are new ones coming in. Who knows what the real number is? The disconnect between wall street and main street is wider than ever. Two completely different realities. My Magic 8 Ball analysis, August was oversold, Sept. over bought, Oct. goes sideways, Nov. & Dec. rally on election results and Jan. hits the wall of reality. 2011 the market will be down 10%, minimum.
Last Thursday, Unemployment Claims were much worse than expected, and stocks still managed to rally. This time, it's only slightly better than the consensus number (along with GDP, just fractionally better) and we see some unexplained surge in the futures. As usual, everything is emotion and POMO-driven. As for GDP, remember gov't spending can ramp that number up as well. And if there's one thing the gov't can do these days, it's spend/waste money by the billions. However, oil is getting close to 80, and stocks don't do well once oil hits the 83-85 range. Upside is limited, unlike the downside...