E55 AMG in Tectite Grey with Charcoal Leather.....might just pull the trigger in January, gotta love the great GDP prosperity we are now in!!!
Now I know why I'm so reluctant to go long this market. Makes a person wonder what the catalyst might be for the bottom to fall out when reality hits. It's like we're living in parallel universes, the real one, and the contrived one. "They" have all got an agenda that continually buries the truth. The CEO of Honeywell said on CNBC yesterday a.m. that he has no idea where this huge number is coming from, that he just doesn't see it in reality. I'm sure he would be interested in your work ! Very interesting, thanks ...
Friday, October 10, 2003 Intel Chairman Says U.S. Is Losing Edge One of the founding fathers of the nation's high-technology industry warned in dire terms yesterday that U.S. dominance in key tech sectors is in jeopardy, threatening the country's economic recovery and growth. http://www.bizreport.com/article.php?art_id=5124&PHPSESSID=87b4ea5df1983d3d7dd701d0aa3b6193
jstanton very nice interpretation of the numbers so I commend you. Next time you get up at 5 a.m. though try some decaf it might help, best regards
Who would have though some truth talking from, of all companies, Intel. I like their products and technology but always seemed like a good stock to short.. Those jobs are going overseas for only two reasons. 1. It's cheaper 2. People have no sense of patriotism when it comes to killing American jobs. Put a American flag bumper sticker on the car, no problem. Keep those jobs here and pay the CEO $10 million instead of $15 million - not likely.
Money supply shrinking http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdf Its heading straight down! http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdf While GDP hits 7.2% money growth goes negative? Nice trick, how did they do that? Normally during boom times the money supply expands! Rippley is running the economy. Folks are taking money out of the bank. Where did it go?
I'm all for drilling down into the numbers, but I don't see the support for your conclusion that the report was "lies." Your problem seems to be with the formula for GDP, not the actual report. Residential construction was huge, not that this was a surprise to anyone following the housing or mortgage comapny stocks. This strength is encouraging because when people buy houses, they also tend to furnish them. So there is reason to believe the strength will filter into other areas. Government spending adds to GDP. That's part of the formula. Certainly I would prefer to see business investment be the driver and not government, but those dollars are still going into the economy. The Fed has pumped a lot of money and we have had tax cuts. That explains the strength of the data, it doesn't make it somehow bogus. That's what supposed to happen. The GDP numbers are inflation adjusted, so I don't understand your insinuation that they are a result of rising prices. Perhaps some areas, like energy, have had greater than normal rises, but I'm not sure how material that is. I have to say that it did occur to me that this strongest in 20 years GDP report came at an awfully convenient time for the administration. It cuts the legs off the Democrat challengers, and preempts the sort of "worst economy in 40 years" campaign of lies that they ran against Bush 41. What goes around, comes around I guess.
So... is it worse than the typical GDP report or is this standard operating procedure?? and if the economy proves to be very robust and vibrant will you give the credit to Clinton??
I agree and appreciate the effort the threadstarter made. Very convenient for the administration. However, jobs creation is lagging and they have 12 months to produce numbers, actually 8 months, because you need some time for newly hired people to develop a sense of gratitude and vote Bush. Iraq won't be resolved by then, and reports put Saddam as the insurgent leader. No good for good ole Georgie. You are in the DC beltway? Are you in Govt.? I don't like Jorge Del La Bush, but if the Repubicans get the economy going and $$$ come my way, he's my man 2004.
fyi: NYPost article thinks all is pretty rosy and might help reelect Bush: http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/9529.htm October 31, 2003 -- THERE'S no getting around it: Life is getting a whole lot better for Americans and a whole lot worse for the Democrats running for president. The huge national economic growth spurt announced yesterday came as a thrilling surprise even to Bush stalwarts. One former key economic adviser told me on Tuesday that he was all excited because he believed the growth rate would be 6 percent. Instead, it was 7.2 percent - which means it was 15 percent greater than even this cockeyed optimist had hoped for. The more you look at the numbers, the more remarkable they are. One key to the growth rate in the second quarter of this year was the huge increase in defense spending - which, thanks to the war in Iraq, rose a staggering 44 percent. But in the third quarter, government spending as a whole rose only 1.4 percent, which means almost all the economic growth came in the private sector. And a lot of that growth came exactly where you would want it to come - from growth in business spending. That grew by 11 percent, which means businesses are finally shelling out big-time for new equipment. And in very short order, they will need new workers to run that equipment, which means the employment picture is on the verge of brightening considerably. Consumer spending, which has kept the economy afloat the past two years as businesses have contracted, rose robustly as well, by almost 7 percent. And that would not have been possible without a brilliant economic plan devised by the Bush administration. In the most recent tax bill, the administration convinced Congress to accelerate its plan to increase the yearly tax deduction for children by 40 percent, from $600 to $1,000. And then, rather than waiting for April 2004 to roll around, the government sent households with minor children an immediate tax-rebate check sometime in August. "The Treasury mailed checks to most people who claimed the Child Tax Credit last year, as an advance payment of the credit's increase," according to the IRS. "If you claimed this credit on your 2002 tax return, you may be eligible for up to $400 for each qualifying child . . . You don't have to do anything to get these benefits . . . The IRS figures if you're entitled to any advance Child Tax Credit payment and has it sent straight to your mailbox - automatically. You don't have to call, apply or fill out another form." With 72 million children under the age of 18, the tax rebate has been flooding the economy with almost $30 billion in liquidity. The effect has been explosive and positive. That was true as well in August 2001, when the government sent every American taxpaying household a $300 rebate following the passage of the big tax cut that year. Those dollars kept the economy from going into a free fall thanks to the business slowdown and 9/11. This is nothing less than a disaster for those seeking the Democratic nomination. In a September debate, Dick Gephardt claimed that George W. Bush was the worst president for the U.S. economy since Herbert Hoover - and that is a view echoed by most of the other candidates. Well, the economy contracted almost 25 percent in size during the Hoover presidency. By contrast, there were only eight months during which the economy was in recession during the Bush presidency - from March to November 2001. The recession began when Bush was in office only six weeks and ended two months after 9/11. That's pretty impressive, even before you think about the 7.2 percent growth figure. The dark lining in this silver cloud is, of course, the loss of 2 million jobs - but that will be ending. Even if growth slows down to a less sizzling pace of 4 percent or so, there will be sustained job creation throughout 2004. And if that does happen, it's almost a certainty that one person will be keeping his job: George W. Bush