We are continuing to resolve the 238.87 level. The market closed above the River level at 236.53, so short trades continue to be aggressive and we continue to hold longs. Long Strategy If you are long from the 236 area, stay long. Risk would be a failure to close above 238.87 which we are testing now. If we do not overcome this level exit. Final target above this level is 241.21 where all longs should exit. Traders can look to set longs on a move down to 236.53. Risk would be an hourly close below River at 236.53. If this occurs, traders should exit. You can always re-enter if we move back above. Targets are 238.87/239.18, then 241.21 where all longs should exit. New longs can also be established on an hourly close above 239.19. Risk would be an hourly close below 238.87. Target is 241.21. Short Strategy (Higher Risk) Traders can enter new shorts if we do not close above the 238.87 area. Look to enter on an hourly close below this level. Risk is an hourly close above 239.18. Target is 236.53. Cover completely here.
Please note that I have made adjustments to both the static levels (black) and the dynamic River levels (blue) based on the price action over the last 5 weeks. The static levels will be fixed for approximately 4-5 weeks depending on volatility. The model has changed and we are trading at the River level of 239.27 so my bias has moved to Neutral until this level is resolved. Traders may wish to stand aside until the next directional move becomes clearer. If you trade, expect volatility on the hourly closes. Long Strategy (Neutral) If you are holding longs, stay long. Risk is an hourly close below 239.27. Target is 241.84. Exit completely here. Traders can look to set new longs on an hourly close above 239.18. Target is 241.84. Exit completely here. Short Strategy (Neutral) Traders can enter new shorts on an hourly close below 238.80. Risk is an hourly close above River at 239.27.Target is 236.53. Cover completely here.