WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A handful of economists sharply revised upward their estimates for second-quarter gross domestic product on Friday, with some even predicting GDP could turn out to be positive in the April-June quarter. The trade deficit in May - released earlier in the day by the government -- surprised economists by narrowing to $26.0 billion, the lowest level in almost ten years. Exports rose smartly in the month, while imports declined a bit. The economic team at Macroeconomic Advisers, which tracks GDP growth after every major indicator, has raised its forecast for second quarter to a small 0.2% decline, up from its most recent forecast of a steep 2.0% drop. Economists at RDQ Economics said that they see "a significant possibility" that real GDP could actually grow slightly in the second quarter. The economy contracted at a 5.5% pace in the first quarter. But many economists continued to be leery of calling for positive growth in the second quarter. Many noted that stores are still allowing their shelves to empty and are not re-ordering goods. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/q2-gdp-could-be-positive-due-to-trade-data
Is the trade deficit narrower because exports rose or because we can no longer afford to buy crap from China without our jobs? My guess is the latter.
On the one hand... there will be easy comparisons, as they attempted to write off everything including the kitchen sink. On the other hand, it's the government reporting on how things are going (much like the fox reporting on how the chickens are doing). And while self-serving lies can rule the day for a while, they cannot do so indefinitely. The REAL Bottom Line... (1) jobs are still being lost, rapido and (2) well-paying jobs will NOT be coming back in significant numbers any time soon.