predictions from firms: FIRM GDP GDP Jobless LEI Price Idx Claims ----------------------------------------------------------- Number of replies 67 42 38 51 MEDIAN 2.2% 1.8% 315 0.1% AVERAGE 2.2% 1.8% 317 0.1% High Forecast 2.4% 1.8% 335 0.3% Low Forecast 2.0% 1.7% 310 -0.3% Previous 2.2% 1.8% 304 0.2% ----------------------------------------------------------- ABN Amro 2.1% n/a n/a 0.2% 4CAST Ltd. 2.1% 1.7% 310 0.2% Action Economics 2.2% 1.8% 315 0.0% AIG Global Invest. 2.1% n/a n/a 0.1% Alleti Gestielle SGR 2.2% 1.8% 320 n/a Allianz Dresdner 2.2% n/a n/a n/a Argus Research Corp. 2.4% 1.8% n/a 0.1% BBVA 2.2% 1.8% n/a 0.0% BMO Capital Markets 2.2% 1.8% 314 0.0% BNP Paribas 2.1% 1.8% 310 -0.3% B of A Capital 2.2% n/a 312 0.1% B of A Securities 2.2% 1.8% n/a 0.0% Banca IMI 2.2% n/a n/a 0.1% Banco Itau Europa 2.2% n/a n/a n/a Barclays Capital 2.2% 1.8% 315 n/a Bear Stearns 2.1% 1.7% n/a 0.1% Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi 2.1% 1.7% 311 0.1% Briefing.com 2.2% 1.8% 315 0.0% Calyon 2.2% 1.8% n/a n/a CFC Group 2.2% n/a 312 0.1% CIBC World Markets 2.2% 1.8% n/a n/a Citigroup 2.2% 1.8% n/a 0.3% ClearView Economics 2.2% 1.7% n/a n/a Commerzbank 2.2% n/a 325 0.0% Countrywide SEC 2.2% 1.8% 312 0.0% Credit Suisse 2.0% 1.8% 315 -0.1% Daiwa Securities 2.2% 1.8% n/a 0.0% Danske Bank 2.2% n/a n/a n/a DekaBank 2.1% n/a n/a 0.1% Desjardins Group 2.2% 1.8% 319 0.0% Deutsche Bank Research 2.2% 1.8% 315 n/a Deutsche PostBank 2.2% n/a n/a 0.0% Dresdner Kleinwort 2.2% n/a n/a 0.2% DZ Bank 2.2% 1.8% n/a 0.0% FTN Financial 2.2% n/a n/a n/a Fortis 2.2% n/a n/a n/a Global Insight 2.1% n/a n/a n/a Goldman Sachs 2.2% 1.8% n/a 0.2% H&R Block Financial 2.2% n/a 335 0.1% High Frequency Economics 2.2% n/a 330 0.1% HSBC Markets n/a n/a 330 n/a HypoVereinsbank n/a n/a 320 0.1% I.D.E.A. 2.2% 1.8% 319 0.1% ING Financial Markets 2.2% 1.8% 320 0.0% Informa Global Markets 2.2% 1.8% 327 0.1% Insight Economics 2.2% 1.8% 310 0.0% J.P. Morgan 2.0% n/a 320 0.0% JPMorgan Asset Mg 2.2% 1.7% 310 0.2% Lehman Brothers 2.1% 1.8% 310 0.1% Lloyds TSB 2.2% n/a 312 0.2% Maria Fiorini Ramirez 2.2% 1.8% n/a n/a Macroeconomic 2.2% 1.8% 310 0.0% Merrill Lynch 2.2% 1.8% n/a 0.0% Moody's Economy.com 2.1% n/a 315 0.1% Morgan Stanley 2.1% n/a n/a 0.1% National City Bank 2.2% 1.8% n/a 0.1% Nomura 2.2% 1.8% n/a 0.2% Nord/LB 2.2% 1.8% n/a 0.0% PNC Bank 2.3% 1.8% n/a 0.1% Promotora Bursatil n/a n/a 313 n/a RBS Greenwich Capital 2.0% 1.8% 330 0.1% Ried, Thunberg & Co. 2.1% n/a 320 0.1% Scotia Capital 2.2% n/a 310 -0.1% Societe Generale 2.2% 1.8% 310 n/a Stone & McCarthy 2.2% 1.8% 330 0.1% Thomson/IFR 2.1% 1.8% 312 0.0% UBS Securities LLC 2.1% 1.8% n/a n/a Univ. of MD 2.1% 1.7% n/a n/a Wells Fargo 2.2% n/a 315 0.0% Wrightson 2.2% n/a 330 n/a
Yes, pretty much as expected. Volume should start dropping now ahead of the hollidays. Market participants seem happy with the current markets levels. Unless something big happens we should expect little moves from now on. But the markets are often surprising, so I will keep my eyes open and also trade with less capital. It was a pretty good year, surprisingly easy to trade, from a swing trading perspective. The upside bias of the markets was spectacular since August. We should not expect the same in 2007. Probably more volatile. We will see.