Discussion in 'Forex' started by victorycountry, Apr 6, 2016.
Yesterday, price hit the bottom, and thus, GBPUSD is highly likely in bullish sentiment from today.
D1 reads as sideways chop, looks like 1.4000 might be a good low of chop range.
Downtrend ended end of Jan area from the look of it, will it break lower and downtrend more or chop range 1.4000 ish to 1.4500 ??
Plance your bets!!
made a new low today, so how come price bottomed yesterday?
You're right. GBPUSD made new low early this morning in my time zone and I was talking about that low which went just below 1.4000. Because I live in NZ, I said it wrong cos in my time zone, London session and NY session open on different day.
I agree with you, on daily, it's going through sideway chop.
When I looked at 15/30min chart this morning, prices made V (/\) shape (in 15min & 30 min) and made higher high which you can only observe at bottom (top) & also on daily chart, I observe the inverse hammer.
imho, prices will not fall further at this stage.
I also observe lots of long contracts on 30 min chart.
I think this is more than enough evidence that GBPUSD is in bullish sentiment.
Nah this isn't enough data to justify it's bullish time, it's a V that's all, bad news causes selling dragged it down, then good news shot it back up again.
If there is more bad news generally than good news, then confidence will slide and more sellers and less buyers = still lower.
Bad news causes bad news and good causes good and that's had trends form.
Maybe in the long run, you might be right (cos I have not really checked any GBP's inflation and interest rate changes relative to USD lately) but I am an intraday trader, not a daily swing trader. As far as intraday is concerned, it's highly likely that bullish sentiment has entered GBPUSD.
Unlike futures market, FX does not have expiration day but still there is a rolling period - that's when banks reverse their positions at the bottom/top and I am very sure that's when V shape happens.
Or am I missing something?
V shapes happen all the time, your brain just doesn't see the V shapes that fail
Defo no magic date, banks reverse there positions, it's all news driven no way to predict the news, news is mixed at the moment hence chop, a while ago it was bad hence downtrend simples.
If your intraday like me, then setting up a bias of the market is bullish, only take longs is just wrong, you want to be trading, what the market is doing that minute pretty much, no point confusing yourself with anything longer term.
Bias's always always end up going badly, don't think, just react.
Thanks for your advice cos I am still learning.
I believe at least it takes 2 years to become an expert in one industry and I've been trading just over a year but thanks to old ET threads, I have improved so much.
Like you said, I would not initiate any trade until news release time although I do short during Asian sessions when prices go through bearish market cos they just fall like leaves until London session opening.
In bearish market, news works as pullback although there is one exception to it (it has to cross one moving average level in 1 H chart but initially prices rise again when it touches this moving average level).
Looking at that moving average level, I see that resistance level around 1.41800 (may change later cos it's moving average level) in 1H chart.
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