GBPUSD Brexit washout

Discussion in 'Forex' started by athlonmank8, Dec 5, 2018.

  1. Really looks like it's going to tank here soon. May's in hot water and there's no fix in sight.

    Chart just has nothing until 1.23/1.22.
  2. Turveyd


    As a brit and also a anarchist, this is going to be interesting!!

    Not May's fault, can't leave the EU say fuck you and expect them to give you the same deal we've got currently, Cancel leaving or suffer are the only options, blame UKIP!!
    luisHK likes this.
  3. Interestingly, this one came up on my monthly chart analysis at the end of November. My indicators suggest there is a possibility that December will be a higher close for this pair. Watching how this trades off the most recent low on Dec. 4.
  4. Sig


    How in the world do you chartists justify the belief that a forex chart is going to determine what the government of the UK will do regarding Brexit (or any other major event)? I don't think May is checking out the Forex chart and saying "look, here's a teacup and kettle being smashed over a head and shoulders attached to a falling wedge. Definitely need a second referendum!" Or is this all preordained and the chart is the equivalent of reading the goat entrails?
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2018
  5. I don't need to justify it. I don't worry about major events that are fathomable.

  6. Sig


    Alrighty, clearly working on the level of goat enrtail interpretation then!
  7. "Not caring what other people think is a superpower." Happy Holidays to you!
  8. No May isnt checking a Forex chart but at the same time your reasoning isnt necessarily right. The market is one big casino and right now the house is saying lower.

    Im confused as to why you think the market wouldnt be a good indicator of what the consensus is.

    Dont mean to put you off from your odd goat fantasy.
    formikatrading likes this.
  9. Sig


    You're saying something fundamentally quite different from @formikatrading. Does the current price of a forex pair reflect the current market consensus of all factors that would influence that pair? Absolutely, we're in violent agreement on that point!
    On the other hand, @formikatrading states "My indicators suggest there is a possibility that December will be a higher close for this pair. Watching how this trades off the most recent low on Dec. 4." He's saying that some twitch on the chart he saw clues him into the fact that the current price is not the best estimate of what will happen but instead another outcome is more likely, in other words he's saying the house is wrong and he and his types alone know this because of their interpretation of a chart!
    The house may very well be wrong, it turns out crowds aren't always or even statistically more likely to be right, it is a probability based event not an absolute, and any number of real world events are going to happen that will influence the final result. One thing that any rational person can be certain of, though, is that the pattern the @formikatrading types of the world see in a chart or tea leaves or anything else will neither influence nor be predictive of the final result of a large real-world event like Brexit.

    BTW, a practice called haruspex (the reading of entrails) was common in ancient Rome and variations show up in many societies from early civilization to medieval times. It is fascinating to me that apophenia seems to be a common human condition across millenia and societies, as well as the modern versus historic forms the practice has taken on. I wouldn't call it a fantasy as much as an interest in what appears to be a hard wired facet of some percentage, if not all, human brains. I will admit some level of fascination with the @formikatrading types and how enough of them together can influence the world, as well as what we can do to limit their flights of fancy to places where they won't hurt themselves or at a minimum the rest of us.
    athlonmank8 likes this.
  10. From my years of experience, I have to just trust what I'm seeing and not what I think. If something is fathomable and is being discussed publicly (even if the outcome isn't known), I can't fear it -- that includes elections, terrorist attacks, anthrax scares, wars, political instability, etc. When I have worried about what could happen in a situation, then I'm just guessing and in the same boat as the rest of the world -- and then I miss out on the best opportunities. At the end of the day, you have to choose a system / strategy and trade it. With GPB/USD, I have seen some things on multiple time frames that make it an interesting trade from the long side for December. I can take the trade and then manage the risk. That's all I can do. Again, I'm being process-focused, not outcome focused. Whether you agree with it or not or whether you think it makes sense from your own standpoint or your opinion of me are not my concern.

    At the end of the day, you have to find an edge, whatever that may be. The people I learned from, in terms of style (Paul Tudor Jones, Soros, Larry Williams, etc). are not traders who wait for the outcome of a situation. In fact, watch the "Trader" video with Paul Tudor Jones and you'll see how he trades oil in the midst of uncertainty with OPEC. Larry Williams told everyone to buy the S&P 500 on any sell-off related to the 2016 election, regardless of the outcome! Again, you may think I'm full of crap, but I have spent years testing various indicators and approaches. Where I have failed the most is in failing to trust what I'm seeing, regardless of what everyone else is saying or I'm feeling. In fact, my best ideas are usually when people think I'm absolutely crazy. My own mindset is the weakest link in my approach and something I have been working on the past year. In any event, best wishes to all of you!
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018
    #10     Dec 6, 2018
    billv likes this.