GBP

downtrend still intact though, it is going to have to chop through serious wood to break 1.35

 

I am backing treble bottom, whether trend will or will not change can only be a 50/50 shot. Bottom formations that do work can provide a trader with a huge reward vs risk (I was bit late, as didn't spot it in time), there will always be failures & there will be successes.

 

50% retracement targets taken from various ranges (Hi/Lo). I only bother looking at 50% retracement zones. 1.35 current 50% retracement zone confluence with 2008 reaction Lo, IMO that is the primary target at the moment. I am gunning for 1.4 if I see rejections of 1.35 I may have to pull the trigger prior to 1.4 is reached.

 

At this point I don't think we can say anything for certain before the results of the general election in the UK. The pair is very undecided.

 

Election will be won by the Conservatives, there just isn't any solid opposition this time.

 

The other main reason boils down to USD, is it just a retracement or will USD continue falling.

 

And that depends on the political situation in the States, which has been quite unpredictable lately.

 

As well as interest rate & overall state of economy, which according to stock markets is very very healthy.

 

True.
Either way, for now the pair is bearish. I think it will likely continue falling to 1.2700 - 1.2680.

 

Nah, major forces are waiting for the results on elections. This will definitely be the trigger. But I think some of long will be unwound 1-2 days before the day of the event.