is there anyway we can be 100% sure that cable no longer going downward. because I plan to place a few buy when it start traveling upward. steve
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Here's some info I learned about the GBP/USD today. Depending on your experience level - I'm a beginner - this may be way too basic for your tastes and that's ok. I'm not here to start a fight or argument, just passing along info that is not my own as I promised. This may or may not be useful for someone who's interested in investigating more about the GBP to make their own objective decisions. It is my wish that this be helpful. I am not a GBP trader or anything like that. Just interested in learning more about the markets to one day be profitable. 1) A fibonacci is always drawn from the top of a wave to the bottom of the wave 2) GBP/USD loves the 50% retracement 3) On the 4hr. chart recently we had a bounce of the 50% retracement (Dec. 12 high to Jan 22 low) 4) That bounce helped confirmed the bearish trend. 5) By going to the daily (or weekly if you prefer) chart and pulling a fib from the high in Nov. 2007 to the low in Nov. 2005, you'll see that the GBP/USD is headed toward the 50 fib line. This line also roughly lines up with several old highs as well. 6) So let's be oriented to the downside as price is aiming for support on the 4 hr. chart and is projecting to push through that support 7) When we cross that support we consider price going all the way to the 50% level on the bigger chart, making around 300 pips of potential profit for us. 8) When dealing with GBP/USD keep your stops 30 pips away from the fibonnaci level on any order, buy or sell. This helps save you from fake spikes up or down. 9) Money management rule - we shouldn't be greedy. Get out if your trade on GBP/USD goes 50 pips against you and only risk 2% of your equity per trade. If you see 20-30 pips profit, book it. Wait a few minutes and if the trend is going in the same direction, then enter again. If you see 15 pips this time, just book it. No need to think, "man, I'm going to make 100 pips this time." 10) Also, you can risk around 10% of your equity on a single day, that is the maximum. This means about 5 trades a day. 11) No one can be rich in one day, but if you follow this money management rule, in around 2 months you will have your account doubled. 12) don't use such stuff as robots, EA's, etc. 13) The G7 meeting happened saturday. In the upcoming days European Banks will be posting their balance sheet and all the banks are expected to show losses due to the subprime issue. This portends selling for the euro and the pound this week as people will prefer to buy the dollar this week due to the stimulus package and other fundamental reasons. So at the moment USD is favorable this week and bearish euro and pound. Have a good week.
Could you post some picture also. I'm confused, what do you mean by bigger chart. >3) On the 4hr. chart recently we had a >bounce of the 50% retracement (Dec. >12 high to Jan 22 low) Why do you choose this time interval. Wouldn't it better to choose when its peaking at 2.1111 How could a 50% RETRACRE, confirm a bearish trend. thanks
By bigger chart I mean the bigger timeframe, the Daily (or weekly) chart. Once you get on the daily chart, try placing your fibonacci drawing tool on the extremes I mentioned and finding the 50% retracement line. I'll answer more for you after US market close and post a chart. Hopefully it won't be too after the fact. ttys
Anyone long again? im in from 9493, and think I can get 100 pips. 4hr charts looks like odds are in my favor with both an MA cross nearing, and rising stochastics. Stop at 9400.
On this chart, I note some places where I think there are waves (blue) and we use the high and low of those waves to draw the Fib. You can see the wave drawn in red lines on the chart. It shows the high and low that we used to draw the most recent Fib. That fibonacci is where price bounced off of the 50% retracement. I'm a beginner so I made a mistake drawing the Fib and corrected it for you.
Here is the larger time frame chart of the GBPUSD. Best wishes to you. I'm only sharing what I've picked up. I think it's up to all of us to determine for ourselves what's useful and what isn't. Take care.