British house prices fell for a third consecutive month in January - housing market data from the UK continues to weaken - consumer credit and mortgage approvals falling short of expectations - I think puts pressure on the GBP....
A couple of longer term ideas on the GBP: Looking at the GBP daily we can see that the bearish 'death cross' of the 50 period ema crossing the 200 period ema took place in late December. We are also not far from some major fib retracement levels where I would expect to see resistance with the 38% at 2.0031 and the 50% at 2.024...
looking at the 4hr, seems we can get another down move. Think ill short with u. how many lots do you usually trade?
Here's my take on the pound. GBPUSD(Close 1.9683) No prior analysis to follow. For Monday, I expect the GBPUSD to move down to 9624 in Asia/Europe, if this level holds price should reverse for a re-test of 1.9682 in London. Short term aggressive traders can set longs out of 9624 and target 9682. If price continues upward through the 9682 level, then target 9735 and exit all longs at 9735. Wait for value to build. If 9735 holds, then traders should look to set shorts for a move back down. If price moves down through 9624 in Asia/Europe and holds below, then traders can set shorts for a move down to 9509. Cover all shorts here. A move below this level is very significant. NA UPDATE: This worked out perfectly. The pair made a low of 9625. You should have set longs and held through 9682 and exited at 9735. We are currently trading at 9764. My bias is down from but I would like to see value build and the pair move back below 9735 before setting up shorts. I would recommend being flat at this point.
BOE will announce their interest rate decision this week - the market is expecting rates to be lowered by 25bp. The economy has been suffering with a weakening housing market - I'm expecting negative fundamental data to put pressure on the GBP near term...