Now back to trading. over the past few weeks, eurusd has rather small day range. so that makes trading rather challenging. occasionally gbpusd has big day range due to brexit news.
I totally agree with EU - this pair has been a bit of a nightmare for the past few weeks with low volatility and little sense of interweek pullbacks, which is great if you're a LTF trend follower, but how many of these individuals do we know who actually have a constant monthly pay cheque... Yes - GBP is basically a measure of Brexit right now with classical TA taking a backseat IMHO. It doesn't take much news, or rumors to make the pound fly off the handle. However saying that, the short position which was put on yesterday is certainly making a run to the profit level.
UPDATE: WEEK 12 of 52 - EUR.USD SL LEVEL HIT: -1.99% LOSS (+45.3pips) ~3.3pips negative slippage The FOMC news ended any realistic chance of the EU trade closing at BE; and that’s all it was, a “chance”. I knew that it should have been stopped out prior to this. Always fun to be dragged along the floor with an ounce of hope! Gotta love FX or it’s not for you. So what does this mean…well it means the week is over with both the GU and EU pending orders being triggered and closed. GU closed for +4.04% EU closed for -1.99% Net gain of +1.99% after compounded adjustment. Well, that’s me done for the week, not great, again EU let us down and GU was picture perfect. Catch you over the weekend for next weeks pending orders.
I know right, today has been a strange one, although GU has presented some real nuggets of opportunity. Artifically inflated against the USD FOMC News, then sold against reality...who would have known...
Might as well drop this in here, although it's separate to the signals given here - that's right, it's my own discretionary account where I go against the grain. It's outperforming the weekly signals this month at +8.64% this month to date. As always you can find this on the first post as it's linked and verified to myfxbook. I've also realised that many traders here tend to estimate their own account balances, so it's only fair I do the same. The discretionary account has $20,000 USD in real dollar terms, whilst the weekly signal account which I link here has six figures. I'm not fucking about here, these are real trades listed before the event. If you don't like the fact that they are tied to a demo account for my own unfortunate privacy then i'm sure there are many other threads you can follow. Anyway, i'm done now for the week - it's been productive, an educated gamble at times, but more importantly it's been profitable. Catch you over the weekend with new trade levels for the new upcoming week.
So the markets are finished for another week - not a bad one for myself, closing in profit, with minimal drawdown. Yes, I already hear you say that this account is new with not enough data to draw a conclusion from that holds any validity within myfxbook. So with that being said, let me roll with this and bring in the following trade levels for the next week commencing Monday 25th March. Week 13 of 52 - Trade Levels GBP.USD & EUR.USD GBP.USD - This week i’m looking for either a long at 1.2961 or a short at 1.3289. This would be an OCO set-up where one cancels the other upon being triggered. In both instances I will be using a 70pip stop and a 140pip TP based on the ATR which dictates this. The position size will be 0.28 std lots which represents a 2% of account risk. EUR.USD - This week i’m looking for a short at 1.1333 with a 40pip stop and a 80pip TP based on the ATR which again dictates this. The position size will be 0.47 std lots which represents a 2% risk of account. Here is a visual representation of the levels that I'm looking at for this new week... Note: A few system rules that need to be understood before you think i'm making adjustments to my pre-trading weekly calls. All pending orders are live from when the markets open for business. All pending orders expire if not triggered come midnight Thursday evening UK time. Occasionally, yet rarely, although it does happen, I will bypass the above signals prior to them being triggered should I see an overwhelming reason to do so. This decision is also systematic and built into the trading approach. The criteria will not be discussed as to why this can occur, but real time updates will hit this thread should it happen. Position sizing is compounded up or down at each month end given the net change from the prior month against the stop level being implemented. And that's it, hopefully this will be easy to follow - each week i'll copy the above format and list the levels i'm looking to trade at. As always, these can be seen in the myfxbook account which i've linked here post #1. These are pre-market open trade levels, so if you have an issue with me showing these in a demo account then i'm sure you can happily move on. This is an exact replica of the trades taken in my own cash accounts, I do however respect my own privacy when it comes to showing account balances; hence the public demo account for public viewing purposes. For those of you who are switched on, the trading approach that I use is rather simple, obvious, yet effective. Trading the weekly high and low ranges and also paying attention to the weekly big 50% retrace levels when confluence is clear from a PA point of view. My own personal opinion with the FX markets is that simplicity is key, as is sticking with it. The rule set that I use to determine these levels is rather complex, yet systematic. It's curve fitted over a large enough sample size to provide statistical positive expectancy over time. Every six months the 'curve' is reanalysed to ensure that the trading system is aligned to the market, this being the only time that adjustments can be made to the core methodology & numerical constants used for analysis.
In simple terms, yes this is correct. Perhaps the most common way to judge if a market is contracting or expanding whilst positioning yourself above the typical market “noise”. Granted, it doesn’t always work, but it’s a hell of a good foundation to start from when attempting to quantify a market variable so that a systematic approach can be taken. Great question!