GBA's "2021 Stock Phantasma"

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Jan 1, 2021.

  1. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    $AIRT
    $28
    Off the radar type. Good niche now. I think.
    Lost money on it a few years back. Should have bought it in the teens.

    Wait for a correction. Its a decent stock.
    ---------------------


    Air T, Inc. Reports Fiscal 2021 Results

    Air T, Inc. (NASDAQ:AIRT)

    Revenues from Continuing Operations totaled $175.1 million for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2021, a decrease of $61.7 million, or 26.0% from the prior year.

    Operating Loss from Continuing Operations was $9.2 million for the fiscal ended March 31, 2021, a decrease of $16.5 million from the prior year's Operating Income from Continuing Operations of $7.3 million.

    Adjusted EBITDA* loss of $1.3 million for the year ended March 31, 2021, compared to an Adjusted EBITDA* profit of $9.0 million in the prior year.

    Loss per share of $2.53 for the year ended March 31, 2021, compared to income per share of $2.74 for the prior year.

    Total Equity decreased from $25.0 million as of March 31, 2020 to $14.7 million as of March 31, 2021, a decrease of 41.2%.

    *Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure; see below for further explanation and reconciliation to GAAP measure.

    Company Chairman and CEO Nick Swenson commented:

    'Air T's management is thankful to the people who made a difference in Fiscal 2021. They focused and worked together to make the best out of a difficult time. If you are an Air T stakeholder of some kind, we recommend you seek out the good people of Air T and thank them for the good work they have done in a turbulent world. While the pandemic reduced revenues from some of our businesses by over 80% and they had nowhere to hide, we want to highlight two outstanding performers during the past year. First, as often before, we thank Mike Moore and his Global Ground Support team for knocking it out of the park in fiscal 2021. With a fistful of orders in hand, and the threat of operational chaos, they powered through and delivered a great operational and financial result. The other Mike, Mike Bandalan of Mountain Air Cargo, also demonstrated excellent leadership with the support of his team. The transformation begun when Bandalan took the helm was accelerated during the past year. The essential needs of all the quarantined households were met by the 'classic MAC service' that Mike has renewed! Finally, a shout-out to the Contrail team and the Corporate team for their persistence in completing the multi-partner Contrail JV. We drew on our pragmatism and sense of humor to solve the many issues arising from a four-partner JV entity!'

    We have great expectations about the way a snappy economic rebound will play through many of our businesses. Our teams are ready, willing and able to take on this new type of challenge-growth. I'm not inclined to patter on about the future. Instead, I simply ask you to patiently 'watch this space.' I believe we are better coordinated, better managed, and as determined and resilient as ever. This means we are well-positioned to continue working hard to deliver dynamic forward motion.'

    Business Segment Results

    Overnight Air Cargo
    ● This segment provides air express delivery services, substantially all for FedEx.
    ● Revenues for this segment decreased 12.0% to $66.3 million in Fiscal 2021 compared to $75.3 million in the prior year, principally attributable to lower sales to maintenance customers outside of FedEx as a result of COVID-19 and lower admin fees from FedEx due to fewer operating aircraft (66 aircraft in fiscal 2021 compared to 69 aircraft in fiscal 2020).
    ● Adjusted EBITDA* for this segment was $2.2 million for the year ended March 31, 2021, an increase of $1.4 million when compared to the prior year, primarily due to increased operating efficiencies achieved in Fiscal 2021.

    Aviation ground equipment manufacturing and sales ('GGS')
    ● This segment, which is the world's largest manufacturer of aircraft de-icing equipment, manufactures and provides mobile deicers and other specialized equipment products to passenger and cargo airlines, airports, and military and industrial customers.
    ● Revenues for this segment totaled $60.7 million for Fiscal 2021, up 2.5% versus $59.2 million in the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by a higher volume of truck sales to the U.S. Air Force.
    ● Adjusted EBITDA* for this segment was $9.1 million in the year ended March 31, 2021, an increase of $1.5 million compared to the prior year, due primarily to the revenue increase noted above.
    ● As of March 31, 2021 this segment's order backlog was $10.3 million versus $51.5 million on March 31,2020.

    Commercial Jet Engines and Part
    ● This segment leases commercial jet engines and aircraft; buys, sells and trades in surplus and aftermarket commercial jet engines, engine parts, airframes, and airframe parts, avionics, and other; then delivers the related documents and logistics.
    ● Revenues for this segment totaled $46.8 million in Fiscal 2021, a decrease of $54.5 million versus Fiscal 2020. The decrease is primarily attributable to the fact that all the companies within this segment had lower engine and component sales and lease income due to the impact of COVID-19.
    ● Adjusted EBITDA* for this segment was a loss of $3.9 million for the year ended March 31, 2021 compared to an Adjusted EBITDA* profit of $8.7 million in the prior year predominantly due to the revenue decrease caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Corporate and Other
    • This segment includes expenses attributable to core Corporate functions, investment research, and specialized resources that are available to business units.
    • This segment's Adjusted EBITDA* loss for the year ended March 31, 2021 represented a loss of $8.8 million, compared to an Adjusted EBITDA* loss of $8.2 million in the prior year.
    *Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure; see below for further explanation and reconciliation to GAAP measure.

    Non-GAAP Financial Measures
    The Company uses adjusted earnings before taxes, interest, and depreciation and amortization ('Adjusted EBITDA'), a non-GAAP financial measure as defined by the SEC, to evaluate the Company's financial performance. This performance measure is not defined by accounting principles generally accepted in the United States and should be considered in addition to, and not in lieu of, GAAP financial measures.

    Adjusted EBITDA is defined as earnings before taxes, interest, and depreciation and amortization, adjusted for specified items. The Company calculates Adjusted EBITDA by removing the impact of specific items and adding back the amounts of interest expense and depreciation and amortization to earnings before income taxes. When calculating Adjusted EBITDA, the Company does not add back depreciation expense for aircraft engines that are on lease, as the Company believes this expense matches with the corresponding revenue earned on engine leases. Depreciation expense for leased engines totaled $1.9 million and $4.4 million for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.

    Management believes that Adjusted EBITDA is a useful measure of the Company's performance because it provides investors additional information about the Company's operations allowing better evaluation of underlying business performance and better period-to-period comparability. Adjusted EBITDA is not intended to replace or be an alternative to operating income from continuing operations, the most directly comparable amounts reported under GAAP.

    The tables below provide a reconciliation of operating income from continuing operations to Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA by segment for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2021 and 2020 (in thousands):
     
    #7051     Jul 24, 2021
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Hmmm

    This is interesting:


    7/23/2021 Nicholas John Swenson CEO Buy 1,900 $28.65 $54,435.00

    7/21/2021 Nicholas John Swenson CEO Buy 2,485 $27.56 $68,486.60 59,170
    7/19/2021 Nicholas John Swenson CEO Buy 1,197 $24.53 $29,362.41

    7/12/2021 Nicholas John Swenson CEO Buy 690 $23.84 $16,449.60 59,170
    7/8/2021 Nicholas John Swenson CEO Buy 400 $24.32 $9,728.00

    1/29/2021 Raymond E Cabillot Director Buy 1,291 $20.25 $26,142.75 7,500
    1/28/2021 Nicholas John Swenson CEO Buy 1,874 $20.25 $37,948.50 59,170
    1/27/2021 Raymond E Cabillot Director Buy 500 $20.25 $10,125.00 7,500
    12/29/2020 Nicholas John Swenson CEO Buy 16,731 $18.25 $305,340.75 60,461
    12/29/2020 Raymond E Cabillot Director Buy 22,980 $18.76 $431,104.80 7,328
     
    #7052     Jul 24, 2021
  3. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    The "guru's" hate it.
    ====================

    Does Air T (NASDAQ:AIRT) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
    Contributor
    Simply Wall St Simply Wall St
    Published
    Jul 5, 2021 3:07AM EDT



    Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Air T, Inc. (NASDAQ:AIRT) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

    Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
    Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

    What Is Air T's Net Debt?
    The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Air T had US$88.1m in debt in March 2021; about the same as the year before. However, it also had US$12.4m in cash, and so its net debt is US$75.7m.

    [​IMG]NasdaqGM:AIRT Debt to Equity History July 5th 2021
    How Strong Is Air T's Balance Sheet?

    We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Air T had liabilities of US$28.2m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$91.3m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$12.4m and US$10.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$96.1m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.


    Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$70.6m, we think shareholders really should watch Air T's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Air T's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend.

    Over 12 months, Air T made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to US$175m, which is a fall of 26%. That makes us nervous, to say the least.

    Caveat Emptor
    While Air T's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Indeed, it lost a very considerable US$9.0m at the EBIT level. When we look at that alongside the significant liabilities, we're not particularly confident about the company. We'd want to see some strong near-term improvements before getting too interested in the stock. Not least because it had negative free cash flow of US$7.8m over the last twelve months. So suffice it to say we consider the stock to be risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet.
     
    #7053     Jul 24, 2021
  4. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    But are we diversified?
    At least we have Katrina.

    https://www.airt.net/company/leadership/

    [​IMG]
    Nick Swenson
    Chairman & CEO

    [​IMG]
    Brian Ochocki
    Chief Financial Officer

    [​IMG]
    Mark Jundt
    General Counsel

    [​IMG]
    Katrina Philp
    Chief of Staff

    [​IMG]
    Mitch Pothen
    Vice President, Technology

    Our Operating Priorities

    Our “Investor-Operator Partnership” business model aims to drive long-term value creation by:

    • Supporting the dynamic leadership and growth at our portfolio of powerful companies, ensuring they are well-capitalized and operate interdependently yet interrelated.
    • Diligently allocating our shareholder capital by acquiring the right kind of cash-flow generating businesses.
    • Strengthening our balance sheet and cash-generating assets.
    • Driving overall improved performance and after-tax cash flow.
    • Building edge in the marketplace.
    “Through our acquisitions and investments, along with our ongoing support of the dynamic leadership within our portfolio of powerful companies, we seek to focus our resources, activate growth and deliver long-term value creation for everyone associated with AIR T, INC. “

    — Nick Swenson

    Business Unit Senior Leadership
    [​IMG]
    Michael Moore, CEO
    Global Ground Support, LLC

    [​IMG]
    Mark Harris, CEO
    Worthington Aviation, Inc., AirCo Group

    [​IMG]
    Joe Kuhn, CEO
    Contrail Aviation Support, LLC

    [​IMG]
    Michael Bandalan, CEO
    Mountain Air Cargo, Inc., CSA Air, Inc.

    [​IMG]
    Dave Bixler, President
    Jet Yard, LLC

    [​IMG]
    Paul Stewart, President
    Ambry Hill Technologies

    [​IMG]
    Richard Lee, CEO
    Delphax Solutions, Inc.
     
    #7054     Jul 24, 2021
  5. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Turn off the girls' Olympic beach volleyball, and tell me what this means Stoney!!

    =======================================

    Air T Announces It Will Not Extend the Warrants (AIRTW) to Purchase Alpha Income Preferred Securities (AIRTP) Beyond August 30, 2021
    Published
    Jun 23, 2021 4:05PM EDT


    Warrants (AIRTW) to purchase Alpha Income Preferred Securities (AIRTP) will expire August 30, 2021, as previously announced

    DENVER, CO / ACCESSWIRE / June 23, 2021 / Air T, Inc. (NASDAQ:AIRT), announced today that the Warrants ("Warrants") (NASDAQ:AIRTW) to purchase its Alpha Income Preferred (AIP) securities of Air T Funding (NASDAQ:AIRTP) will not be extended.

    After two generous extensions, the Warrants will expire as scheduled on August 30, 2021. This leaves only 42 trading days until the Warrants expire. AIRTW holders can buy 8% Trust Preferred securities (NASDAQ: AIRTP) for $24.00. The Trust Preferred securities have closed at or above $25.00 on 24 of the last 30 trading days.

    Each Warrant is exercisable for one-tenth of a share of AIP for $2.40. Therefore, each ten (10) Warrants confer upon the holder the right to purchase one (1) full share of AIP for $24.00, representing a 4% discount to the stated value of $25.00 for one share.

    The offering of AIP upon exercise of the Warrants is made only by means of a prospectus. Copies of the final prospectus relating to the offering, which is included in Air T's registration statement on Form S-1 (File Nos. 333-228485 and 333-228485-01), and the prospectus supplements dated June 9, 2020, September 2, 2020, January 11, 2021 and May 14, 2021, may be obtained for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.

    Alternatively, copies of the prospectus and prospectus supplement may be obtained for free from Katrina Philp, Chief of Staff, Air T, Inc., telephone (612) 405-5896, email kphilp@airt.net.

    ABOUT AIR T, INC.

    Established in 1980, Air T Inc. is a portfolio of powerful businesses and financial assets, each of which is independent yet interrelated. Its core segments are overnight air cargo, aviation ground support equipment manufacturing, and commercial aircraft asset management and logistics. We seek to expand, strengthen and diversify Air T's after-tax cash flow per share. Our goal is to build Air T's core businesses, and when appropriate, to expand into adjacent and other industries. We seek to activate growth and overcome challenges while delivering meaningful value for all stakeholders.
     
    #7055     Jul 24, 2021
  6. janes

    janes

    nicholas def didn't wait for a correction
     
    #7056     Jul 24, 2021
    vanzandt likes this.
  7. janes

    janes

    hey stoney, re: ELMS, an EV SPAC is about the last thing i want to buy pretty much ever right now, but this one came up in my research so now i'm looking at it, too. might be at bottom? maybe i'll take a look at upcoming events
     
    #7057     Jul 24, 2021

  8. Too funny- What if the one women was born a man? And I bet the CEO has been asked to show ID or be escorted out of the building many times!>>>
     
    #7058     Jul 25, 2021

  9. I love this company! A) Great name B) Good symbol C) they have a niche' that will occur a lot faster than the long haul segment! I see this all last-mile stuff happening and on schedule. I do plan at some point to buy a bunch of these busted SPAC's I do not know when. It would help if I could make a cent on the two I own first, to see the SPAC's in general right themselves. That event does not seem to be happening because they keep coming! And the companies are junkier and junkier.

    I'm surprised at myself. I bought into the concept of SPACS when I should of known better and when the HF was laughing at me... I did it in my etrade account, I couldn't even sneak one into my larger accounts. I guess that's good.


    To just add a third loser seems self-destructive. But yes ELMS is a Buy and a Bottom!

    THESE TWO ARE Top Of My List.

    ELMS-

    CLNN-

    & This new one coming...->
    • Ginkgo specializes in strain improvement, enzyme discovery, cultured ingredients development (often done through engineered yeast), and mammalian cell engineering for various end markets including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, industrials, and food, amongst others.
    • Ginkgo is one the fastest-growing biotechnology companies with an 84% expected 4-year CAGR with net revenues of $64M (+18% y/y) in 2020 across their 70 major customer programs on top of a net loss as expected of -$126.6M.
    Soaring Eagle: SPAC Merger With Promising Synthetic Biology Specialist, Ginkgo Bioworks

    AIRT- Was this Airtran? & they changed their name. Have used Air Tran in the past.

    Positive- A lot of cargo plane use is happening.
    Negative they own a bunch of companies that specialize in de-icing planes... Global warming-?

    Positive- They ping off Fed Ex and have some sort of relationship with them.
    Neg- Their balance sheet used to be in a lot better shape-- took on debt in 2020.

    Q3 2021 Results- Revenue was down 23.9%, other metrics bounced back strong. Operating income came in at a positive $1.1 million. EPS was $0.74 million.

    Van->US$12.4m in cash, and so its net debt is US$75.7m.<---(I think they may have $40 mln more cash) ***
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2021
    #7059     Jul 25, 2021
    vanzandt likes this.
  10. Alright another big winner idea here- EVFM

    There's a commercial on TV now with a bunch of gals spinning around and dancing and saying how happy they are for some sort of pincer clip they are going to insert into themselves before sex. Owch.

    This is different-

    That same commercial says at the end in low tones-- will not be of use against sexually transmitted diseases...

    This is different- This is Cream Of tartar!

    Concerns about the risks of hormone-based birth control helped give rise to the Phexxi concept, says gynaecologist Kelly Culwell, Evofem’s chief medical officer. Phexxi’s active ingredients include three highly acidic compounds: lactic acid, citric acid and potassium bitartrate — a compound known as cream of tartar when used in cooking. Seminal fluid is alkaline, so after sex it temporarily raises the pH of the vagina, making it easier for sperm to thrive. Phexxi’s viscous gel layer keeps vaginal pH within a range of about 3.5 to 4.5, creating an acidic environment that kills sperm.

    A similar effect has previously been achieved by gels, foams or films that contain the spermicide nonoxynol-9, which users can insert into the vagina. But in some women, nonoxynol-9 can cause pain and irritation. One of the concerns with traditional spermicide is that “it damages the cell walls of sperm, but can also damage the cell walls of the vagina”, Verma says. This damage can make spermicide users vulnerable to HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases.Verma thinks that Phexxi’s acid-based formulation should be gentler on the vagina. The gel might also be appealing for people who cannot tolerate hormones or who do not want a long-term prescription, Culwell says. “Some women don’t want to take a pill every single day.”

    Then, on December 22, 2020, the company announced that:

    it has entered into an agreement with the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to participate in the Medicaid National Drug Rebate Program (NDRP), providing access to Phexxi® (lactic acid, citric acid and potassium bitartrate) for the Medicaid population effective January 1, 2021.

    It further clarified that:

    Medicaid provides health coverage to 69.8 million people in the United States, including approximately 25 million adult women2. Medicaid is administered by states, according to federal requirements, where each state can determine specific coverage for Phexxi. Per the terms of the NDRP, states must generally cover a manufacturer's drugs as of the mandatory effective date.

    Business Insider also weighed in positively on Phexxi, naming it one of "the 11 most mind-blowing health discoveries and innovations of 2020". The article was particularly positive on the fact that Phexxi is hormone-free. Recent NY Times article has added to the positive thought momentum. - NOW WHAT OF THE STOCK!

    About EVFM
    EVFM
    0.89<----- WTF!!!!! THIS IS MISPRICED.
    -0.91
    -4.04%

    Prior Insider Buying) Year 2020- @ $2.00 level <------------

    [​IMG]

    The exciting kicker here is a possible 2nd use--
    The NY Times article makes several points quite well, including that there's a trend towards wanting non-hormonal solutions, that indeed many women can't use hormones (due to other conditions), and that an on-demand form of contraception gives women much more control of their reproductive lives. It also highlights the fact that a second use for the product is now in Phase III testing <----

    If the testing goes well and the F.D.A. approves it, the Phexxi formulation could be used as a prevention method for the sexually transmitted infections chlamydia and gonorrhea.They are a growing problem in the United States, with cases having increased every year for more than half a decade.

    Public health officials have expressed widespread concern over gonorrhea’s growing resistance to antibiotics. Currently, Evofem is recruiting women for a Phase 3 trial.
     
    #7060     Jul 25, 2021
    vanzandt likes this.