GBA's "2021 Stock Phantasma"

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Jan 1, 2021.

  1. Van One of these guys is Corsair and one of these guys is Luminar but which is which?

     
    #231     Jan 9, 2021
    vanzandt likes this.
  2. From Motley Fool-
    Despite a raging pandemic that wrecked broad swaths of the economy, many growth stocks enjoyed blockbuster gains in 2020. With a new year upon us, investors are looking for opportunities that can deliver similarly strong returns for 2021. After scouring the tech sector for promising candidates, my highest-conviction growth stock to deliver market-beating returns this year is Corsair Gaming(NASDAQ:CRSR), which went public in September.

    Here's why.

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    OH VAN LOOK AT THOSE HEADPHONES- COMFY MUCH.

    What Corsair does
    Corsair has been around for decades, offering PC components like high-performance memory and power supplies, as well as peripherals like keyboards and mice, along with computer cases catered to gaming enthusiasts. That's been the core of Corsair's business for the majority of its history, and if it sounds like a somewhat boring and relatively low-margin hardware endeavor...that's because it is. Or rather,was.

    But in the summer of 2018, Corsair made an important strategic pivot with the acquisition of Elgato Gaming: The company was going to bet big on live-streaming. Elgato is one of the leading providers of live-streaming gear like capture cards, content control panels, and green screens. Corsair followed up this acquisition with the 2019 purchases of Origin, which makes high-performance custom PCs, and SCUF, which makes controllers and headsets. In late 2020, Corsair scooped up EpocCam, which turns smartphones into high-definition webcams, and Gamer Sensei, a paid game coaching platform.

    That's a lot of acquisitions, but when you put them all together Corsair has created a vast ecosystem of complementary offerings that all cater to various aspects of the esports and live-streaming boom. It's not an exaggeration to say that the shopping spree is transformative to the business. Corsair has dramatically expanded its market share in numerous categories, and now leads in several.

    Live-streaming is an unstoppable megatrend
    The rise of live-streaming and esports is not particularly new, and the COVID-19 pandemic certainly accelerated adoption -- total hours watched across all live-streaming platforms skyrocketed by 92% year over year to 7.5billionhours in the third quarter, according to Streamlabs. At the same time, live-streaming is still in the relative early innings.

    On Corsair's first earnings call as a public company, CEO Andy Paul noted an incredible statistic: The vast majority of streaming channels have less than 100 viewers. What that data point suggests is that most streamers are not expecting to become the next blockbuster star making millions in ad revenue but are instead investing in streaming gear simply to engage with relatively small online communities. Live-streaming channels are becoming "social sharing mechanisms," according to Paul, which means that the market opportunity includes just about anyone that might be interested in casually streaming.

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    BUY ME VAN- CORSAIR.

    Sure, the company's core customers are gaming enthusiasts who spend anywhere from $1,000 to $1,800 on streaming equipment, but there is considerable opportunity to serve casual streamers that are willing to invest a few hundred dollars into a streaming setup.

    Perhaps most importantly, Paul does not believe that the surging demand is merely a pull-forward effect from future quarters. Much of the growth is coming from first-time customers who are now discovering streaming for the first time, and many customers end up spending more over time just like they would with any new hobby.

    Show me the money
    As far as financials go, sales are marching steadily higher at impressive rates. Revenue jumped 61% in the third quarter to $457.1 million, and Corsair boosted its full-year guidance at the end of November because momentum has been strengthening throughout Q4. The company now expects revenue in 2020 to be in the range of $1.65 billion to $1.67 billion, representing 51% growth compared to 2019 at the midpoint. That also translates into a forecast of about $512.5 million in revenue in the fourth quarter.

    [​IMG]

    Some of the growth was attributable to acquisitions, but CFO Michael Potter noted that organic growth in the third quarter was still 52%, hardly worth complaining about. It's also encouraging that gross margin is rapidly expanding, thanks primarily to a mix shift toward more profitable products like SCUF offerings and streaming equipment.

    "This is a great overall story and formula for continued overall margin expansion, as our fastest-growing and highest-margin segment also sits in our largest market," Potter added.

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    Corsair is also expanding its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel, as Origin and SCUF were already primarily generating revenue through DTC sales. Approximately 25% of Corsair's revenue in the first three quarters of 2020 came from Amazon.

    Paying down debt
    The company raised net proceeds of $118.6 million through itsI PO(with certain selling stakeholders raising $120.7 million), of which $86.6 million was used to pay down existing debt and strengthen the balance sheet. Corsair still has $376.1 million in total long-term debt, which is a meaningful debt load.

    Corsair has about $120 million in cash on hand and another $48 million available through a revolver, which should be ample liquidity as it works to pay down debt with operating cash flow while still funding growth. For what it's worth, credit rating agencies recently upgraded its debt ratings, as the company is posting strong revenue growth and its leverage ratio continues to steadily improve.


    Logitech is a competitive concern since it also serves the gaming market and has a strong brand, but the overall market is growing so rapidly that there should be room for multiple winners.

    The other prominent risk is that Corsair is majority controlled by EagleTree Capital following a 2017 investment. The private equity firm holds nearly 80% of shares outstanding and wields majority voting power as a result. Public investors won't have much say in strategic decisions or other voting matters, and the float will also be a relatively small proportion of total shares outstanding.

    Lock-up agreements will expire about six months after the IPO, at which point nearly 78 million shares will become available in the market. That could create some volatility in a few months, particularly if EagleTree starts to unload some of its position.

    Van This will be a short eventually!!!!
     
    #232     Jan 9, 2021
  3. [​IMG]
    TipRanks

    December 23, 2020
    Luminar Technologies (LAZR) makes LIDAR -- the "Light Detection And Ranging" equipment and software that could, one day, make most cars in the world capable of driving from Point A to Point B entirely autonomously. Knowing this, it seems kind of strange to point out but… Luminar stock can't quite make up its mind which direction it is heading.

    Since coming public in a reverse merger IPO through special purpose acquisition company "Gores Metropoulous" on Dec. 3, Luminar shares first nearly doubled to close at $41.80 on Dec. 8, then got cut nearly in half the following week. The past seven days have seen the stock zigzag once again, to the point that, by the closing trade on Tuesday ($37.37 a share), Luminar shares had recovered nearly all their losses of the previous week.

    As volatile as this stock has been this month, you might expect Wall Street analysts to have very strong feelings about it. But in fact, the latest rating on Luminar, penned by Baird analystTristan Gerra, was a lukewarm Neutral (i.e. Hold). (To watch Gerra's track record,click here)

    Describing Luminar as "a pure play in solid-state lidars," Gerra argues that the company's products already have some utility in cars driving at the L0 to L2 levels of autonomy (incorporating driver-assist functions such as automatic emergency braking, and assisting with parking and driving within a lane). Luminar's wares will become particularly well suited, though, once cars reach the higher L3 to L4 levels of autonomy, which encompass everything from driving at highway speeds on freeways, to the beginnings of "automated urban mobility," i.e. driving in congested urban environments with their confusing mix of automobiles, cyclists, pedestrians, and pets. Later, lidar will be absolutely essential for cars to achieve upper levels of L4 autonomy, and eventually L5 -- the kind of full automation that would enable driverless taxis, for example.

    Problem is, it's hard to say exactly when each of these levels will be reached, what a given level of autonomy will translate into in terms of revenue for Luminar, or how much the company might squeeze out of those revenues. As Gerra points out, "Luminar’s historical revenues have been small (~$12-13 million in 2018 and 2019)." If the company succeeds in putting as much as $1,000 to $2,500 worth of its equipment in every autonomous car sold, Luminar is promising sales growing past the $200 million range by perhaps 2023, doubling a year later (and achieving positive cash flow and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization as well), doubling sales again in 2025 and growing its profits -- and proceeding more or less vertically from there on out.

    Suffice it to say this is a bright picture Luminar paints, but as Gerra points out, it's one not without risks, including "unproven manufacturing capabilities, performance in adverse weather conditions, timing of adoption, pricing, and potential vertical integration" -- and competition from market leader Velodyne Lidar (VLDR) to boot.
     
    #233     Jan 9, 2021
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    #234     Jan 9, 2021
  5. It just occurred to me we have GoPro in the Phantasma
     
    #235     Jan 9, 2021
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    #236     Jan 9, 2021
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    #237     Jan 9, 2021
  8. Well folks I'll leave you now because I'll never top this video wise... I look for Diversity in a Co and I found it.... This is so kooky, so correct, so fab... I am a proud owner of this stock also known as OPKO!-
     
    #238     Jan 9, 2021
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    #239     Jan 9, 2021
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    #240     Jan 9, 2021