Man I just read this thread backeards al the way to page 60 before I found what i wanted... In doing so I came across a few stocks that we most certainly should of bought. So they should be the first for the Instacart List... DNMR-! Man VAN nailed that and I screwed up.... we had all day to buy between $34 and $39 and I failed us somehow. My attitude to these SPACs is the problem.... The 3D stock was ExOne (XONE) <-- These guys maybe could interest that ARK-backed co...
Back To Bill Miller-- Famed investor Bill Miller's Deep Value Strategy likes financials and expects they should see a "significant improvement in profitability this year, according to a copy of investor later dated Feb. 4. Financials are expected to benefit from lower loan loss provisioning, improving loan growth, strong capital market activity, and a steepening yield curve. The fund increased its weight in the financial in past couple of months. Holders of financial securities also stand to benefit from "very attractive" absolute and relative valuation levels and a greater return of capital from increased share repurchases and strong dividends, senior portfolio manager Daniel Lysik wrote in the letter. The fund initiated a position in Wells Fargo(NYSE:WFC)in the second half of last year and expects a return to 10%+ ROE, normalized EPS of $5/share and book value likely approaching $50/share. The fund expects that Wells Fargo shares will be a top performer over the next couple of years. The Deep Value Strategy also recently increased its position size in annuity and life insurance company Brighthouse Financial(NASDAQ:BHF). Brighthouse's equity appears "significantly mispriced," closing the year at a greater than 70% discount to book value and price-to-earnings multiple of 3 times, a significant discount to it peers and the overall market. Another recent addition is media company Gannett(NYSE:GCI)and a successful transformation of the company over the next couple of years may be worth in excess of $20/share. For the fourth quarter, the Deep Value Strategy was up 64.9% (net), more than 2x the S&P 1500 Pure Value Index. For the year, the Deep Value Strategy gained more than 70%. Recall Jan. 8,ADT and Desktop Metal gain on Bill Miller pitch; says DXC takeout offer too low. 1-DXC- 2-Desktop Metal? 3-BHF (Brighthouse fin)
Revisiting Tea.- Summary DavidsTea continues to make progress with its shift towards its e-commerce and wholesale channels growing by 145% in the most recent quarter. Substantially leaner organization as a result of the transformation led to back-to-back profitable quarters with the seasonally strongest quarter ahead. Introduction of new concepts like the recently launched subscription service is accompanied by a more than necessary change in the management team. DavidsTea is confident that it will successfully complete the restructuring process in the near term and emerge as a sustainably profitable company without diluting current shareholders. Investment thesis After a substantial increase in DAVIDsTEA Inc.'s (DavidsTea) (DTEA) share price of more than 150% since mylast bullish article- published exactly 3 months ago - I want to put this price development into perspective. In this previous article, my valuation considerations made me argue that the fair value of the stock at the time was around US$ 5/share. In light of the recent events, however, the risk-reward profile has improved yet again, leading to an even higher valuation based on currently available information. As a result of the strong Q3 earnings and the information regarding the ongoing restructuring proceeding, I have revised the numbers in my financial model upwards and also updated my projection for the probable settlement payments. In addition, the management stated in the last conference call that they plan to successfully complete the restructuring process in the first quarter of 2021 and emerge from the CCAA proceeding as a leaner and more successful company without any dilutive impact for current shareholders. Finally, the fact that the main shareholder and interim CEO Herschel Segal is stepping down at the age of nearly 90 and handing the reins over to his daughter should also be received very well by the market. In sum, despite the recent surge in share price, I think the discrepancy between fair value and current market value is greater than ever. All financial figures presented in this report are in C$ unless otherwise stated. Review of Q3 figures and update of financial model With the continued strong momentum in its e-commerce and wholesale channels, DavidsTeaposted another quarter of impressive growthin its two main distribution channels. In the third quarter, sales from e-commerce and wholesale channels increased by 145.5% to $22.1 million from $9.0 million in the prior-year quarter. As part of its formal restructuring process, the company exited all of its unprofitable brick-and-mortar stores except for 18 Canadian stores which were reopened on August 21, 2020. These 18 flagship stores generated $4.1 million in the third quarter, resulting in average sales per store of around $230 thousand over this ten-week period. By comparison, in the third quarter last year, average sales per store over the usual 14-week period have been approx. $130 thousand. Thus, sales per store in 2020 increased by 75% despite a shorter comparison period of 4 weeks. Against the background of the current COVID-19 pandemic, these results from its reopened stores are quite promising. As a result of the still relatively high delivery and distribution costs, the gross margin for the third quarter came in at 41.3%. In my view, there is some significant potential for cost reductions in the logistics and packaging expenses. As DavidsTea pivots to a digital-first strategy, it is showing continuous improvements in profitability driven by its focus on the e-commerce and wholesale channels. In the last quarter, adjusted EBITDA was in positive territory for a second consecutive quarter with $3.3 million compared to negative $2.2 million in the third quarter of last year (reported EBITDA even amounted to $15.3 million, mainly due to accounting gains as a result of the restructuring process). This highly attractive EBITDA margin of 12.6% is a consequence of the strong sales traction for both channels as well as the significantly reduced general and administrative infrastructure necessary to support the ongoing business. As there seems to be a wrong understanding about DavidsTea’s current cash position and its recent operating cash flow, I want to shed some light on its major balance sheet items. Source:Quarterly reportsin 2020 of DavidsTea As shown in the table above, the decrease in the cash balance of $12.3 million in the third quarter mainly results from an intentional increase in net working capital to be in a good position to meet the high demand in the seasonally strong fourth quarter. It is worth noting that the significant increase in “Prepaid expenses and deposits” over the last 6 months stems from the fact that DavidsTea had to make vendor deposits for both services and inventory-related purchases during the CCAA proceeding. By comparing this figure with the respective amount in the first quarter, it becomes clear that approx. $9 million of additional cash is currently sitting in this balance sheet item. As of October 31, 2020, DavidsTea recorded lease liabilities for its headquarters, warehouse and reopened 18 stores of $0.9 million. In my view, this clearly demonstrates the substantially more favorable lease terms for its real estate as a result of the renegotiation with its landlords. ... This leaves us with an annual EBITDA after lease payments of approx. $18.6 million - an upward revision of around $6 million compared to my last forecast - with an EBITDA margin of 14.9% in DavidsTea’s transition year. This significant upward revision mainly results from the first-time recognition of the new brick-and-mortar business in my updated financial model. Its recent financials suggest that I have significantly underestimated the sales and EBITDA potential of these 18 stores and overestimated the cannibalization effect on the e-commerce and wholesale sales channels. One concluding remark as I think it went unnoticed by most shareholders: Pursuant to the provisions of the CCAA proceedings, DavidsTea's management - with the assistance of its monitor PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) - must prepare cash flow projections on a weekly basis.According to the last monitor’s report, the company topped its cash flow target by $6 million for the 14-week period that ended December 5, 2020, as retail, e-commerce, and wholesale demand was higher than anticipated. As a third of this period falls in the fourth quarter, we can be quite confident that DavidsTea can achieve my EBITDA forecast for the last quarter. Source: Screenshot fromSimilarWeb In addition, DavidsTea was ranked the fourth most visited grocery website in Canada in the month of November. Addressing the competitive landscape, SimilarWeb also lists its main online competitors selling all sorts of tea varieties and tea accessories. Based on my analysis of the respective monthly site visits, it’s fair to say that DavidsTea is doing quite well compared to these niche online tea vendors. Source: Data provided by SimilarWeb DavidsTea should be in a good position to settle all its claims of its former landlords and other creditors over the next two years without any dilutive measures for current shareholders. Thus, I think shareholders’ fears of a potential significant dilution as a result of the CCAA proceeding are largely unfounded (as management stated a couple of times before). In the most recent monitor’s report, we also received a first indication regarding the envisaged timeline for the remaining steps in the restructuring proceeding: Against the background of a potential settlement payment in the first quarter of 2021, the recent launch of its first seasonal subscription box called the “Tea Tasting Club” received too little attention. For a single purchase of US$140, subscribers receive four boxes (each featuring up to eight exclusive blends of seasonal teas), gain access to curated content, and can participate in an online member-only community. This new initiative provides a couple of benefits but first and foremost, I expect significant incremental cash inflows in the months leading up to the potential settlement deal with its landlords. This should substantially strengthen DavidsTea’s negotiation position vis-à-vis its creditors as it gives room for a higher initial down payment of the total settlement amount. The appeal of a subscription service lies in the fact that the company receives the full annual cash amount before it has to deliver even a single product to its customers (the resulting deferred revenue will be recognized proportionally as revenue on the income statement over the four quarters of the fiscal year). Source: WebsiteDavidsTea The recently launched subscription box is apparently very well received as it has already been featured as the winner of the category“Best in Tea” by the well-known magazine Food & Wine. Valuation update Assuming no significant change in net working capital and minor future CapEx requirements as a result of the new business model, my financial model projects a pro-forma adjusted annual free cash flow (FCF) of $18.5 million for the current financial year. Given the strong growth trajectory of its e-commerce and wholesale channels, DavidsTea should be granted a FCF multiple of at least 15 times (same as in my previous article), resulting in an enterprise value of $278 million. Based on the company's current cash balance (incl. cash equivalents) and my assumed payments as a result of the current restructuring proceeding, my price target has been lifted from 4.60 US$/share to around 7.60 US$/share, In addition, the recently announced change in the management team should also be viewed favorably by the market. I think the fact that the company was run by a nearly 90-year-old interim CEO for more than two years was a major drag on the stock performance, even though the fatal decision of a massive store expansion was made by his predecessor. In addition, the current CFO Frank Zitella will step down from his position once his successor has been found and focus only on the company’s operations as COO in the future. I welcome the decision to promote his daughter Sarah Segal to the new CEO for two reasons. First, as a former head of product development and founding manager of an e-commerce candy shop, she may combine her in-depth knowledge of DavidsTea’s product portfolio with a new leadership style and innovative fresh ideas (for example, I give her substantial credit for the launch of the seasonal subscription box). Secondly, in my opinion, the decision to appoint the daughter of the former CEO still owning around 46% of the company again demonstrates their confidence to come to terms with its creditors and emerge from the present restructuring proceeding relatively unscathed without much inherited burdens. Conclusion Despite the recent rally in DavidsTea’s share price, the two main catalysts are still in place that have the potential to drive its valuation substantially higher: so far, the market still questions its arguably significant earnings potential after the restructuring process as well as the fact that it can exit the CCAA procedure without any dilutive impact for current shareholders. If these doubts can be resolved, we should see a significant revaluation of the stock price over the coming months. Whole art here- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4401213-davidstea-dont-to-read-tea-leaves-anymore
OH MY GOD DESKTOP METAL IS A 3D STOCK!!! We gete verything we get a potential buyout from that Nano dude and w egt BillMillr's blessing the dude is on fire!!! And Deep value is my type of meal.!!! Hollah! The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Desktop Metal Is Leading The Way Summary 3D printing allows companies to mass produce high-quality, more efficient parts for a fraction of the cost of traditional manufacturing processes. Desktop Metal boasts the most advanced 3D printing technology in the industry and is expected to grow revenues at a CAGR of 87% through 2025. At a conservative EV/Revenue multiple of 10.0x 2025 estimated revenue, the stock is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.3% through 2025. Desktop Metal(NYSE:DM)is a leading 3D printing company poised to benefit from current manufacturing trends. Analysts expect the 3D printing industry to grow at a CAGR of 25% between 2025-2030. Among the different 3D printing processes available today, binder jetting is seen as the one technique that could transform manufacturing. Desktop Metal focuses mainly on this technique, and their Production system is the fastest 3D printer on the market designed for mass production. Analysts expect them to grow revenues at a CAGR of 87% through 2025. The main risk is Desktop Metal's ability to withstand competition. Rival company ExOne(NASDAQ:XONE)is a key competitor that also focuses on binder jet technology and once had the fastest 3D printer available. Other well-known companies with significant resources, such as HP(NYSE:HPQ), have also entered the space, and the competition continues to rise. The need for 3D printing arises from a few fundamental limitations of traditional manufacturing processes. Both machining and casting are unable to develop products with very complex structures. Machining is limited by a tool's ability to cut and form these structures and casting is limited by the ability to create intricate molds. Since complex structures are not feasible, components must be produced in many different parts. An excellent example of this problem is a fuel nozzle developed by Airbus. Airbus used to create this component by ordering 20 different parts and having them shipped to a factory to be assembled.In 2016, Airbus began using additive manufacturing to develop the nozzle in one piece, reducing both the assembly time and their reliance on suppliers. It also cut the weight of the component by 25%. Additive manufacturing's ability to physically produce these complex digital models in one piece is a game-changer.Scientists predictthat AI's involvement in this process will continue to improve its efficiency and use cases. As the technology continues to improve, casting and machinery will still play a large role in mass production. In the future, however, 3D printing will be a significant part of the manufacturing process. Additive Manufacturing Processes Understanding the types of additive manufacturing processes helps us better understand Desktop Metal's position in the industry. The most widely used techniques are laser powder bed fusion, material extrusion, and binder jetting. Laser fusion works by melting and fusing metal powders through a high-powered laser. This technique is the most popular one used by companies, but its speed is constrained by the machine's single laser head. Material extrusion uses a nozzle to deposit heated metal layer by layer. This process is also constrained by a single nozzle that deposits material. Binder jetting acts like an ink-jet printer we use today, depositing material as it moves back and forth. This technique is by far the fastest, but the developed parts must go through a sintering process afterward. Sintering involves heating the components in a furnace for 24 hours to fuse the metal. Because of its high-speeds and material flexibility, binder jetting is seen as the 3D printing process thatcould transformhigh-volume manufacturing. Chart:Additively Where Desktop Metal Comes In Desktop Metalis an additive manufacturing company that uses the binder jetting system. The company boasts four products: The Fiber system, Studio system, Shop system, and Production system. The Production system is designed for mass production and uses a single-pass jetting technology that is 100x faster than laser-based methods. It is also the fastest 3D printer on the market designed for mass production. It is currently used by select companies but will begin shipping in volume in the second half of 2021. This system allows companies to produce high-quality parts at volume for a fraction of traditional manufacturing costs. It also has an advanced sintering technology that automatically cycles based on material selection without any user programming required. All products can be accessed digitally on a computer or phone through a cloud-enabled browser and receive remote over-the-air updates for new features and enhancements.
VAN DM TOOK OFF THROUGH $29 Desktop Metal call volume above normal and directionally bullish 12:25 DM Bullish option flow detected in Desktop Metal with 15,959 calls trading, 1.8x expected, and implied vol increasing almost 3 points to 101.33%. Feb-21 35 calls and Feb-21 40 calls are the most active options, with total volume in those strikes near 6,200 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.23. SO THAT MEANS $35+ CORRECT?
BOOOOO! Utz Brands downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson 07:41 UTZ DA Davidson analyst Brian Holland downgraded Utz Brands to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged $24 price target. The stock has run up 70% since he initiated coverage last July, with about half of that appreciation following the company's "strategically compelling" acquisition of On The Border, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Holland adds that at over 20-times expected next-12-months EBITDA valuation, Utz has "little, if any" room for multiple expansion. Show Related Items >>
Company Profile DXC Technology Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides information technology services and solutions primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. It operates in two segments, Global Business Services (GBS) and Global Infrastructure Services (GIS). The GBS segment offers a portfolio of analytics services and extensive partner ecosystem that help its customers to gain rapid insights, automate operations, and accelerate their digital transformation journeys; and software engineering and solutions that enable businesses to run and manage their mission-critical functions, transform their operations, and develop new ways of doing business. This segment also uses various technologies and methods to accelerate the creation, modernization, delivery, and maintenance of secure applications allowing customers to innovate faster while reducing risk, time to market, and total cost of ownership. In addition, it offers business process services, which include digital integration and optimization of front and back office processes, and agile process automation. The GIS segment adapts legacy apps to cloud, migrate the right workloads, and securely manage their multi-cloud environments; and offers security solutions help predict attacks, proactively respond to threats, and ensure compliance, as well as to protect data, applications, and infrastructure. It also provides IT outsourcing services support infrastructure, applications, and workplace IT operations, including hardware, software, physical/virtual end-user devices, collaboration tools, and IT support services. In addition, this segment offers workplace and mobility services to fit its customer’s employee, business, and IT needs from intelligent collaboration; and modern device management, digital support services, Internet of Things and mobility services. The company has a strategic collaboration with Microsoft. DXC Technology Company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Tysons, Virginia.
LAST WED- Clean Energy initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse 06:29 CLNE Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta initiated coverage of Clean Energy with an Outperform rating and $17 price target. Gupta believes that given its downstream distribution network, Clean Energy is uniquely positioned to benefit from renewable natural gas supply growth and that it will attract incremental fund flows from both environmental, social, and corporate governance and energy investors.