The question here is could this be like 2022 when the IT stocks got hammered but Oil stocks were hot and the TSX was flat not down. If the economy doesn't totally tank, the commodity stocks in general are undervalued compared to commodity prices and in some cases cash streams , and areas like small caps and auto parts have badly lagged broader indexes for a long time now. At one point, it was Gold miners that badly lagged markets and since then you can see stocks like New Gold went from way under a $1 to over $5 now ( it pains me to admit I stopped buying it at $1.19 when some joker analyst put a 0.90 target on it; at one point it was a core trading position in my account as was Kinross the value trap play I used to own ).
I think any recovery play Magna is a great large cap play to double in price, and Martinrea is a good trading short term vehicle. Timing of course is unclear I wouldn't want to own any of them until Trump relents on 25% tariffs on Canadian auto parts. Magna does have a lot of connections in Europe though might be worth getting in early ( haven't researched it yet ).
VVV Valvoline to acquire Breeze Autocare for about $625M NewsThu, Feb. 20 Earnings Call Insights: Valvoline targets 160-185 new store additions in FY25 amid refranchising efforts InsightsThu, Feb. 06 Mar. 28, 2025, 07:20 AM Mizuho believes President Trump’s 25% tariff announcement on new vehicles made outside the U.S. “represents another positive” for the domestic aftermarket auto parts operators. The tariffs should facilitate an older cohort of cars on the road and, therefore, the need for ongoing repairs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes AutoZone (AZO) and its top pick O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) “remain growthy safe-havens amid a still uncertain spending backdrop and fears around demand destruction from reciprocal tariffs.” Channel checks indicate foot traffic data has picked up for both companies over the last few weeks, Mizuho adds. The firm also sees “developing positives” for CarMax (KMX) given the likelihood higher prices for new vehicles will ultimately lead to a shift towards the relative value of used car transactions. This will also benefit Valvoline (VVV) as new dealers can own the oil change relationship for the first several years post a new vehicle purchase, according to Mizuho. MCW Mister Car Wash sees FY25 adjusted EPS 43c-45c, consensus 39c » 02/19 MCW Sees FY25 revenue… Mister Car Wash reports Q4 adjusted EPS 9c, consensus 7c » 02/19 MCW Mister Car Wash initiated with bullish view at Raymond James, » 03/12 MCW Mar. 12, 2025, 03:30 PM Raymond James initiated coverage of Mister Car Wash (MCW) with an Outperform rating and $10price targetThe company holds just 1% market share of the “highly fragmented” U.S. car wash industry and is well positioned to capitalize on premiumization trends and incremental market share opportunities through new unit expansion and further member penetration, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that while competition and rising costs weighed on Mister Car Wash’s recent performance, it sees signs of cost stabilization and indications of an industry environment “starting to behave more rationally.”
Be ready Tues perhaps for that. It's all up to these other countries: do they want to placate Trump or teach him a painful lesson. If deals are cut great.
“ NasdaqGS - Delayed Quote•USD Driven Brands Holdings Inc.(DRVN) 17.86 -0.03 (-0.17%) At close: March 28 at 4:00:01 PM EDT 17.85 -0.01 (-0.06%) After hours: March 28 at 6:43:16 With experience across a diverse range of automotive services, our brands can handle all of your car care needs” https://www.drivenbrands.com/ The chart is nice!
Yes, the TSX tends to overreact more then US indexes when Trump did his thing early March many stocks dropped a ton first thing non-stop panic selling and the bottom that day was a great buying opportunity on midcap commodity stocks.
“… Trump’s 25% auto tariffs will unleash “pure chaos,” according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, but the Trump administration argues it is rebuilding an industry the U.S. squandered over decades through the wrong trade policies. Dan Ives already has a phrase to describe President Donald Trump’s punitive 25% duty on imported cars—he’s calling it the “tariff announcement heard around the world.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warned-car-tariffs-cost-americans-182940920.html
THE 2002 reference is interesting// I need to check my facts but we had a recession that was caused by a falling stock market prices not economic fundamentals in about that time frame. And I've been working up a thesis that is happening again now....