GBA PRESENTS- the public games

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Jul 22, 2024.

  1. Of Course!l. Iggy couldn’t refuse!

     
    #331     Jul 28, 2024
  2. Being a stonedinvestor means being able to find an investment out of anything mentioned or happening.

    I nailed one today folks. I'm listening to NPR talk about food inflation. Which we all know and we all know there is push back now at various food chains eating out but what of the supermarkets?

    Well this story goes on to say the big brands are starting to realize they have lost customers and maybe for good. Those buying Charmin their whole life, they are buying Kirkland.. Ok good news for Costco but..

    If consumers are buying many more private label offerings in the market then we are going to buy:


    THS TreeHouse Foods, Inc. @$38.75

    $38.74 0.22 (+0.57%)4:00 PM 07/26/24
    NYSE | $USD |

    Top private label food manufacturers
    Some supermarket retailers rely on private label brands for up to 20% of their revenue. There are many private label food manufacturers that supply products to supermarkets and other retailers. Some of the top private label food manufacturers include:

    1. TreeHouse Foods: A US based food manufacturer that specializes in private label products, including snacks, baking mixes, and canned goods.
     
    #332     Jul 28, 2024
  3. Trump lays out plan to turn U.S. into a 'crypto capital' and 'bitcoin superpower'
    BTC-USD-0.50%Yesterday, 6:22 PM
    [​IMG]
    Trump says will hold a strategic national bitcoin stockpile if re-elected; BTC turns green
    BTC-USD-0.50%Yesterday, 5:00 PM

    Get ready for the cognitive mess to put your nations cash balance into bitcoin-- This is absurd and dangerous.

    " My beautiful Christians in 4 more years you won't have to vote anymore it will be ' fixed' "

    Now you know why the Nazi- stuff... I told you!!!--> If you value your ability to vote in a democracy you had better stand the fuck up!!!
     
    #333     Jul 28, 2024
  4. I've had a couple requests to look at ABT- There is one month support right here at $100/ It should hold. You are down from $120 and Down 9% on the year./

    If we break that $100 level-look for more support at $96-$97. ~si
     
    #334     Jul 28, 2024
  5. What a Start To A new thread!!!!

    #1 Already!!!!!:wtf:

    And so many good new ideas. I will formulate them onto one page this week.:fistbump:

    You are rolling with America's Top Stock Picker! :thumbsup:
    and smoking with America's best market direction prognosticator!:thumbsup:


    You lucky lucky Elite Traders.
    :cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:
     
    #335     Jul 28, 2024
  6. The possibility of a 2nd front now in Israel is something I warned you about already. I don't see how the stock market would take this news well if it happens.

    The irony is my sources tell me we have never been closer to a cease fire in Gaza! and I can't confirm this but I was told our highest ups are right now heading to wherever Egypt? for talks they hope will seal the deal.

    2nd Irony.. a truce in Gaza means Israel can free up and move forces and open a 2nd front with Lebanon.. so maybe it's not the good new we will initially think.

    AS USUAL YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST******************



     
    #336     Jul 28, 2024
  7. Ok so with our new oil idea... I think I am going to buy as well...

    What we have is a clear cut costs set up for 2024. And an under predict // over deliver set up with management.

    Here are some highlights from their last earnings call->


    Jack Hightower: I'm very excited to report we had a great start to the year. Results were in line or exceeded our expectations. We continued to stay committed to our 2024 core values, which, if you recall, include maintaining disciplined operations, strengthening our balance sheet, and maximizing shareholder value. We are going to continue staying within our capital budget expenditures and not getting out over our skis. Operationally, you heard me say last quarter that running a two-rig development program will allow our operations team to aggressively focus on reducing capital costs, optimize daily operations, and drive down operating expenses.

    The operations team absolutely delivered on these goals. Financially, we generated positive free cash flow from operations for the third consecutive quarter. We are prioritizing debt reduction in the utilization of that free cash flow while also steadily increasing capital returns to shareholders. In addition, we continued our pursuit of increasing shareholder value through raising our dividend, implementing our share buyback program, continuing to organically add high value liquids-rich inventory to our portfolio and ultimately maximizing shareholder value through our strategic alternatives process. Now turning to Side 5 on the operations front, we had a great first quarter. We held our average production levels flat compared to the fourth quarter at roughly 50,000 barrels a day.

    We made huge strides in continuing to lower our operating expenses, as evidenced by the 16% decrease in LOE or BOE from last quarter down to $6.30. And I want to take this opportunity to congratulate and thank our operations team for all their hard work as we are starting to realize significant progress and savings in this area. The reduction in LOE costs further improved our already peer-leading EBITDAX margins. Our operational success led to generating first quarter EBITDAX in line with our fourth quarter, which on a run rate approaches $1 billion. We increased our free cash flow by 42% compared to the last quarter and we've now generated positive free cash flow of over $150 million in the last three quarters. We utilized free cash generated in the first quarter to reduce long-term debt by $30 million.

    We increased our dividend by 60%, and we implemented our share repurchase plan, whereby we acquired over 565,000 shares during the first quarter. Now I'll turn the call back over to our President, Mike Hollis, to provide an update on our first quarter operations. Mike?

    Michael Hollis:Thanks, Jack. Now turning to Slide 6. As Jack previously mentioned, the team has been intensely focused on reducing costs across the board. On the capital side of the equation, costs continue to trend in the right direction for HighPeak, leading to increased capital efficiency. As I mentioned last quarter, we are trending well below our guided dollar per completed lateral foot costs for the year. One additional point that I'd like to make on the capital cost front that will continue to improve as we progress in our development program are our facility costs. Our central tank battery configuration is large, scalable, and efficient. And as our drilling program advances, we will be able to reduce the per-well facility cost on our new well tie-ins, thus reducing future total capital cost per foot.

    We anticipate seeing additional improvement throughout the year, but as always we continue to adhere to the under-promise, over-deliver philosophy. Now turning the focus to the operations side of the equation. And I'd like to take this opportunity to put a couple of numbers out there. HighPeak was able to keep our absolute dollars spent on LOE this quarter to roughly $200,000 below what we spent in Q1 of 2023, a year ago when our production was only 37,200 BOE per day. And again, we spent less in Q1 of 2024 while our production was roughly 50,000 BOEs a day. Some of the key drivers to accomplishing this feat are shown on the right-hand side of this slide, where you can see the field-wide build-out of our world-class electrical and produced water infrastructure systems.

    [​IMG]
    An aerial view of drilling rigs and gas pipelines in West Texas, revealing the company's operations.
    This system is built for the life of field. The operations group has been extremely busy over the past few years constructing these systems in both Flat Top and Signal Peak. And the fruits of their labor are absolutely starting to show. Other areas where our operation teams continue to make positive strides include optimizing our field-wide chemical programs, exploiting that world-class infrastructure, and maximizing the production of our base, all of which is supported by the reliability of our overhead electrical power distribution system. The capital investment the company has made in this system is and will continue to pay huge dividends as we develop our large inventory of high-value locations for decades to come, and by improving EBITDAX margins and lowering well breakeven costs.

    And as you can see on these maps, the majority of our acreage is now tied into these systems, which means only small incremental infrastructure dollars will be needed in the future as our development program continues, thus reducing future CapEx needs. Our overhead electrical system will be further enhanced by our flat top solar farm, which we look to commission within the next week or two. The timing of which is great, as we'll be able to take advantage of the summer West Texas sunshine to provide power to the field during daylight hours. This will greatly reduce our exposure to electrical spot prices and brownouts, which are frequent during the hot summer months in West Texas. As a reminder, our 2024 capital budget is slightly first half-weighted due to entering the year with three rigs and completing the ducts we carried into this year.

    And our infrastructure span is also first half-weighted to extend our infrastructure to our newly acquired acreage. Having great ROC coupled with low-cost operations and efficient deployment of capital, leads to increased corporate efficiency and free cash flow generation. And HighPeak will be able to continue this for decades because of our extensive runway of inventory. Now turning to Slide 7. HighPeak’s margins per BOE continues a commanding lead amongst our peer group. Our unhedged first quarter EBITDAX margin of $52.68 per BOE was close to 70% higher than our public peer average and over 30% higher than our closest peer. Adjusting our current volumes to an equivalent economic production rate to achieve the same cash flow for HighPeak based on our peer groups average cash margins would equate to HighPeak producing 85,000 BOE a day.

    We produce and generate meaningful EBITDAX no matter how you look at it. One contributing factor to increasing our margin is our focus on reducing LOE cost. As you can see on the chart on the right-hand side of the slide, we have delivered four consecutive quarters of reducing LOE cost per BOE. HighPeak posted a 26% reduction quarter-over-quarter, which equates to roughly $6 million less absolute dollars spent this quarter for roughly the same production we had last quarter of 4Q of 2023. All of that savings is additional free cash flow now and in the future. As we always say, not all BOEs are created equal, our high oil cut, coupled with our improving cost structure, will continue to drive differential margins for our shareholders. I'm always surprised and appreciative of what the operations team can deliver.

    They have met every stretch goal we've placed in front of them. And for such a liquids-rich BOE to have a lifting cost that competes with the best operators in the basin without having the added low-value gas BOEs in the denominator of the equation is a feat. If we had the same GOR of our peer group, think how lower LOE would be here at HighPeak. It would have a four handle on the number. Again, this is first-class performance and my hat goes off to the operations team. And as natural gas and NGL prices continue to face significant headwinds and our lifting costs continue to decrease, in my opinion, our margins will continue to stand head and shoulders above the peer group over the next handful of years. Now turning to Slide 8 to highlight our inventory-rich portfolio.

    HighPeak entered the year with approximately 2,600 locations, with over 1,700 in what we currently consider our primary delineated zones. Our current development plan is focused on our bread and butter, Wolfcamp A and Lower Spraberry adventures, where we have close to 15 years of high-value oil-rich inventory at our current development case. In addition, some of the zones that we presently classify as upside are being delineated throughout the county and directly offsetting our acreage. We remain extremely excited about these early results and are looking forward to moving some of these locations into our primary zone classification. I'd like to take a moment to focus on a very topical concept within our industry, and that's the notion of break-even cost.

    At HighPeak's current cost, including DCE&F, West Texas Lane, that's blood, guts, and feathers all in. Our portfolio has over 1,100 locations that generate a 10% or higher IRR at $50 a barrel. In addition, we anticipate being able to move more of our sticks into the sub $50 a barrel break-even category as we continue to drive down our costs and as our upside zones are proven out across the acreage position. We are extremely blessed at HighPeak to have decades worth of oil-rich, low-cost, high-margin inventory, which we will economically convert to free cash flow for our shareholders. And with those comments now complete, I'll now turn the call back over to Jack to wrap up on Slide 9.

    Jack Hightower:Thanks, Mike. That's a really great operational performance during this quarter. And as Mike just talked about, we have a great asset base full of high-margin, high oil production with decades of inventory. Over the last year, we have focused on operational and capital discipline in drilling within cash flow. Extremely important, we are going to maintain capital discipline. This, along with some oil price support, has led to us to being able to generate over $150 million of free cash flow over the last nine months. We will continue to proceed with the disciplined exploitation of our asset base to generate more free cash flow moving forward. As we do, we will use that cash flow to strengthen our balance sheet, pay down debt, and increase our liquidity.

    Through doing all these steps, I believe it is only a matter of time before the market recognizes the value dislocation of our stock and start to reward our shareholders with increased value.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    What a great set up! As these guys move more fields online the stock will go up and up and up.

    Eventual buy out. That Jack Hightower bought so much stock last year at these prices tells us... it's coming wait for it....
     
    #337     Jul 28, 2024
  8. HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc.-

    $16.72-0.28(-1.65%)4:00 PM 07/26/24

    Here's the rub... these guys were a SPAC. 2 years ago Cramer talked highly of them when the stock was $22. Give the vid a listen he talks about the SPAC-- I think one of the cleaner ones.///

     
    #338     Jul 28, 2024
  9. #339     Jul 28, 2024
  10. This note is from the end of 2023-- but it highlights a couple positives::: and I have seen where these guys once before hired bankers about a buyout....

    Wasatch Micro Cap Value Strategy made the following comment about HighPeak Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:HPK) in its Q3 2023 investor letter:

    "We also addedHighPeak Energy, Inc.(NASDAQ:HPK), an exploration & production (E&P) company that performs geological and geophysical services, petroleum engineering and drilling. HighPeak is focused on developing unconventional oil and natural gas reserves primarily in the Midland Basin of Texas. We like that the company’s energy reserves contain fewer byproducts than typically found in the reserves of competitors. Prior to our purchase, the stock was down because HighPeak had taken on too much debt. Under the leadership of Jack Hightower, the new chairman and CEO, the company has raised equity—largely from the management team—and has refinanced the debt. Going forward, we think HighPeak is attractive as an independent company or as an acquisition target of a larger competitor. Our confidence in HighPeak is enhanced by Mr. Hightower’s track record of success in the E&P industry and his willingness to put his own money where his mouth is."

    In the beginning of 2023 we had this and nothing came of it...

    U.S. oil producer HighPeak Energy says it will explore sale

    January 24, 2023
    HighPeak said it retained bankers from Credit Suisse and Wells Fargo to assist with exploring such options.

    The Board and I believe now is an opportune time to capture the value we do not consider is presently reflected in our share price," said HighPeak Chief Executive Jack Hightower in the statement.

    ////////////////////////
    Now with the cutting of costs and paying down of debt aren't we more enticing?

    This will end in a buyout.


     
    #340     Jul 28, 2024