When you are trying to find the real direction of the market sometimes you have to squint. 16 out of 21 companies reporting yesterday opened down - Follow the S&P levels I gave out for next week. Hopefully we just flat line into NVDA and then they don't let us down... As we approach this 1st rate cut make sure you have a good amount of cash. Remember what we told you last Oct.... The time to sell the rally is the 1st rate cut. History has shown that. ~si
Ted did they talk about joy? Were they pumped up over the Dems chances! What was the mood of the party. What kind of car did you rent to get there!!! Mustang?
Cars can torture you. My damn mazda has been making this loud sound upon first acceleration or when you are cruisng low speed and then accelerate-- a rattle. And it's been bothering me and my garage guy in the city is like What's up with that loud noise (In Spanish- I think he said that ) but he made a crazy sign around his head. And I drove up here to Ct and the sound was there.. it's been there on a constant basis for well over 2 months.. So I gave in I MADE A REPAIR APPOINTMENT WITH THE DEALERSHIP $$$. IT'S FOR NEXT WED. AND I JUST TOOK HER OUT-- NO FUCKING SOUND AT ALL!!!!!
What are our top lower Interest rate sectors? 3 so far..... 1-SPACE 2-SOLAR 3-EV 4- Real estate! Duh! But such a broad category-- could this include SOFI? And Home Financing sort of plays... Is home building in here? Or just REITS? Rate-sensitive real estate stocks outperform broader markets We have EPR Properties but that's different than straight up real estate. More entertainment based-It should still benefit - EPR EPR Properties- 7% yield great total return idea. $47.59 0.91(+1.95%)4:00 PM 08/23/24 Company Profile EPR Properties (NYSE:EPR) is the leading diversified experiential net lease real estate investment trust (REIT), specializing in select enduring experiential properties in the real estate industry. We focus on real estate venues that create value by facilitating out of home leisure and recreation experiences where consumers choose to spend their discretionary time and money. We have total assets of approximately $5.7 billion (after accumulated depreciation of approximately $1.4 billion) across 44 states. We adhere to rigorous underwriting and investing criteria centered on key industry, property and tenant level cash flow standards. We believe our focused approach provides a competitive advantage and the potential for stable and attractive returns.
STONEY!!! WHY DID YOU SELL CAVA AT $81? I DID ALL THE WORK FOR YOU LAST QUARTER WHEN IT WAS $78 _______________________ So CAVA... I noticed something while I was trying to figure out what they'll do tonight on earnings. 2023 had 53 weeks in it (at least it did in their accounting world)... and their report said they estimated ebitda benefited from the extra week by $2.5M... ok good. But in their guidance for 2024... they gave an ebitda range of $86M - $92M. Now I realize they are growing fast, and opening another 50 stores in 2024 will certainly pressure ebitda some, but if one week was good for $2.5M, then 52 weeks would be $130M So $86M-$92M sounds awful low-ball to me. Also forecast comps at 3%-5% sounds low too. This stock has had quite a run, up over 100% since the ipo... but if same store sales come in around 7%-8% and I'm right about that ebitda, this thing is gonna take out $100 tonight. If same store sales come in at or below guidance though, watch out below. But I don't think that'll be the case. #251 May 28, 2024 Share TrailerParkTed likes this. vanzandt vanzandt 35,949 Posts 13,431 Likes (Emphasis below mine)* We estimate that the benefit to fiscal 2023 income from operations and Adjusted EBITDA of the 53rd week was approximately $2.5 million due to higher CAVA Revenue and CAVA Restaurant-Level Profit Margin, partially offset by higher general and administrative expense of approximately $1 million to support the growth of the business. Fiscal 2024 Outlook: CAVA Group anticipates the following for fiscal 2024: Net New CAVA Restaurant Openings 48 to 52 CAVA Same Restaurant Sales Growth 3.0% to 5.0%<------ CAVA Restaurant-Level Profit Margin 22.7% to 23.3% Adjusted EBITDA $86.0 to $92.0 million <-------- #252 May 28, 2024 Share vanzandt vanzandt 35,949 Posts 13,431 Likes Two other things, purely supposition... Now don't get me wrong, CMG's food is awesome, and a great value imo, but everything gets old after awhile. Now I have never eaten at a CAVA, but if it's as great as everyone says, then I could certainly see them stealing some CMG customers out of a "lets try something new" consumer mindset alone. I assume it's the same demographic and price point as CMG. The other thing, again a guess on my part, but I bet shorts have been, and certainly are today, hitting this thing pretty hard based on its meteoric performance to date. That climb from $70 to $85 since May 1 has been pretty gradual, no sharp spikes really other than maybe Friday and today, but even those are tame... that tells me this might be setting a bear trap in advance of a huge gap up. $82.62 as I type. All eyes are gonna be on those same store sales though. If they come in over 7%... yowsa. Last edited: May 28, 2024 #253 May 28, 2024 Share vanzandt vanzandt 35,949 Posts 13,431 Likes vanzandt said: ... but if same store sales come in around 7%-8% and I'm right about that ebitda, this thing is gonna take out $100 tonight. Taking out $100 sounds pretty aggressive. That would be a move north of 20%. But if they are opening 50 new stores in 2024, that's a 16% increase over what they already have right there, so a 20% move is not as crazy as it sounds. Their balance sheet is solid, no debt, and the current float is about 90% of the total shares outstanding which is always good. All that said... it sure is difficult to buy a stock that is up 100% from it's ipo price less than a year ago. But the numbers seem to be there. Tough call. Options are pricing a 12% move... maybe wait, if it does sell off I think anything in the mid to high $60's will be bought pretty hard. #254 May 28, 2024 Share vanzandt vanzandt 35,949 Posts 13,431 Likes Same store sales: 2.3% Good beats though. #255 May 28, 2024 Share vanzandt vanzandt 35,949 Posts 13,431 Likes $78 is a good buy. #256 May 28, 2024 Share GreatCamel likes this. GreatCamel GreatCamel 429 Posts 149 Likes Van Question, assuming TRUMP wins which sectors you think one should position into? #257 May 28, 2024 Share vanzandt vanzandt 35,949 Posts 13,431 Likes I don't know why its selling off. The headline says forecast same store comps are 3.5%---that's wrong. ---- the report says 4.5%-6.5%, which is a raise over their February guidance of 3%-5% I think it's gonna bounce. $77.17 #258 May 28, 2024 Share vanzandt vanzandt 35,949 Posts 13,431 Likes GreatCamel said: Van Question, assuming TRUMP wins which sectors you think one should position into? Sector-wise it's hard to tell. Tech should remain strong, oil & gas services should do well as a sub-sector. Defense is already jacked up. It might be easier to figure out which ones to short. Or cherry-pick individual stocks. I think Boeing will do well in the absence of any more screw ups. Back to CAVA here... if it gets thru $78 here in a few minutes, it should keep going. $77.73 #259 May 28, 2024 Share vanzandt vanzandt 35,949 Posts 13,431 Likes vanzandt said: Back to CAVA here... if it gets thru $78 here in a few minutes, it should keep going. $77.73 There it goes. This thing should gap up nicely tomorrow. I think that was a classic after-hours low volume dump to shake out the weak hands with the whales gladly scooping up the shares. It's $80 now. #260 May 28, 2024 Share GreatCamel likes this. _______________________________________________________ $80---> $122 NEXT TIME LISTEN TO VAN STONEY!!!
Vz I'm a dummy. I for sure sold to soon. Your comments I never saw sorry. We had a great run because we got the shares at the IPO price it was a time nobody was shopping. So my gains were Huge. But i wish they were even huger. I did double dip and scored again so share wise it was a 2X weight in my portfolio. I certainly brought the children the right IPO! I'm glad you agree. Next up SweetGreen!
Yesterday Van I grilled a chicken for late lunch and made a chicken and feta sandwich. Then for dinner, same chicken on a salad with wine. Today I took the last of the chicken and made a chicken salad on baget. Using every bit of the animal. It is this humility that serves me well...
Make sure you watch the horse race today I just bet Torpedo to place. I feel like her longest distance ever, her first time against boys, some problems in the gate it's a lot to ask to win... But last second I may drop a win ticket too- I just love this horse. By the way Brunson is fat as fuck. What the hell, she just had babies and this raccoon is huge again. Last night I put some tuna fish out and she could barely squeeze through the rails it was funny to watch--- she's so fat all the sudden.. more babies.. ugh- oh when is this going to stop? and how many are coming... ? Maybe next time just leave nature alone...
I just saved Bacchus' life. OMG. He fell in the deep end. Blind motherfucker. I was on the other side of the pool getting late sun and he got up from a nap and cut the corner too close and fell right in. I couldn't believe it and went into lifeguard mode I dove in before I even knew what I was doing. I had my glasses on I can't get my ears wet none of that mattered just my baby. Holy shit we dragged him out. WOW