Stay the course! You are riding with stoney- too much jumping in and out hurts returns. Copper squeeze deepens as LME stockpiles plunge Copper is experiencing an historic backwardation as traders react to rapidly falling inventories, potential US tariffs, and a pricing crisis at smelters. Spot copper traded at a $345-per-tonne premium to three-month futures on Monday, the highest level since a record surge in 2021, signalling a sharp backwardation. Backwardation occurs when the price of a near-month contract is higher than that of a longer-term contract, an indication of tightening supply.
Readily available inventories on the LME have declined about 80% this year, and now equate to less than a day of global usage. The depletion has been fueled by a global race to move copper to the US ahead of potential import levies. Tariff speculation In February, US President Donald Trump directed the US Commerce Department to investigate the need for copper tariffs, with a report due within 270 days. The announcement triggered a surge in US-bound shipments as traders rushed to preempt any trade barriers. Refined copper imports to the US topped 200,000 tonnes in April, the highest in over a decade. At the same time, copper smelters in China were so desperate to find raw material that they are paying miners for converting their concentrates into refined metal. Spot treatment charges have fallen to $45 per tonne (TC) and -4.5 cents per lb (RC) level, amid excess smelting capacity and insufficient raw material supply, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. LME response The LME last week implemented measures to curb backwardation driven by individual traders holding large front-month positions. Similar steps were recently used in the aluminum market, where Mercuria Energy Group was required to lend back a major position at a capped rate to prevent sharp near-term price spikes. However, trading data suggests the copper squeeze is more systemic. Key short-term spreads on Monday moved independently of any single large trader, indicating broader market pressure. LME rules require traders holding more than 50% of available inventories and spot contracts to lend their positions back at a capped rate via the Tom/next spread—starting at 0.5% above the spot price. On Monday, that cap would have been $49.73 per tonne. But the spread briefly surged to $69, suggesting those rules weren’t triggered and the squeeze was driven by widespread buying. The pressure extends beyond near-dated contracts, with backwardations now evident through June 2026—a sharp shift from six months ago, when short-term contracts traded at a discount, signaling comfortable supply.
Prospect Capital CEO Barry buys 623,000 common shares » 16:48 PSEC PSEC Prospect Capital Corporation $3.15-0.01(-0.32%)4:00 PM 06/24/25 NASDAQ |$USD |Post-Market:$3.17+0.02(+0.63%)6:29 PM Got to say this Co looks like absolute crap. Don't buy unless it's a scalp tomm~~~~~~
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UPDATE- FTDR Frontdoor, Inc. + $19 $59.68 0.65(+1.10%)4:00 PM 06/24/25 NASDAQ |$USD |Post-Market:$59.684:31 PM
There are many aspects to consider with insider buying. Are the amounts strange odd amounts that several directors bought? Is it more than one person buying. Is one person so rich it doesn't matter to him? In this case look at the prices paid. Well above the share price now. Has the market overreacted? / MEG Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. $21.74 0.56(+2.64%)4:00 PM 06/24/25 NYSE |$USD |Post-Market:$21.744:04 PM
Hi Van. Consider this all a devious game. You create tariffs to pay for tax breaks for the super rich. You drive up prices to the average people. When do those higher prices hit? I think the fed said Sept -Oct. So far we have been just selling old goods already bought. When the consumer pulls in and inflation spikes the shit will hit the fan. Against that backdrop is this pressure game on the Fed get him to move before the numbers spike. There's timing there to consider. But I agree it will come faster because trade deals are not getting done. Right now follow your volume, if we tweak the high on light vol not good/ and how far to we go past it. If the move is short and shallow The sell off will come in Aug. ~stoney
I looked at this one Stoney.... I like the insider buys. And a nice inverted H&S on the one year. The books are iffy though.