Christ people these days and dogs... they're even worse my wife says I coddle the dog and give in too much. She doesn't know he bites me. Yes I like it but he bites me. (sort of) These damn Rhodesian's are supposed to be almost a barkless breed..NOT! they are So loud they can be heard all the way down the street and I'm serious I've heard him all the way at the other end of 22nd st. Now I have SENIOR night at my kids HS.. of course.. big basketball game all that stress and senior presentations have to be there....now this dog.. I gave him those pills I had to give him to get the vert. HIGH MAINTENANCE!!! In case anyone asks.. Rhodies....
Gummies are ideas I thought. This one was a rotten one either way. I really thought a big conglomerate like ROP would miss earnings this time. Cramer lol, I had that on the dvr, I watched it, he did say SYK was new for him, he said it 3 times. He also pumped my ISRG, which I finally closed. Said "he's liked it for decades". Now who has said that since day one here? I never heard Cramer say that lol. In fact, I always wondered why he never mentioned them or had the ceo on. Whatever. How 'bout PYPL. Ouch is right. Wtf happened? That'll take Ebay down I bet. I haven't looked yet. EDIT: Ebay down 3%
Love your attitude Van. Just don't look that's what I do. For all I know these guys may of put me in PYPL I tend to not open my statements. Are gummies ideas? Yes but they are also feelings. Urges. Spurts. Enthusiasm, new dimensions, new universes and usually secondary offerings.
Regarding PYPL's effect on Ebay. I'm 80% sure Ebay has taken their payment processing in house. I'm not sure what that means exactly but volume wise I don't think this earn miss would effect Ebay and in fact Ebay's changes may of affected PYPL! If I was a young stud I might think... Ok this sector will get slammed do I want in on Square?<-- which is a good idea except Apple is working on a built in Square type app into their next phone... so anyone can swipe a CC #'s... Which bring you to Shift4Paytments.... Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD 51.58-1.24(-2.35%)
Jason Moser:McDonald's is expanding its partnership with Beyond Meat, starting on February 14th. The meat plant burger will be available at 600 locations in two major metropolitan areas, San Francisco and Dallas-Fort Worth. I get how some people would look at this news as a win for Beyond Meat. I think it's a long-term, potentially a bigger win for McDonald's, both in terms of what they offer. But if this thing becomes a hit, doesn't it give McDonald's slightly more negotiating leverage with beef producers? Maria Gallagher:Well, I'm sure McDonald's is probably getting a great deal with Beyond Meat with the potential they have over 14,000 locations, so that's a huge market for Beyond. I think that McDonald's has lots of power in all of these negotiations already, but I agree definitely, it could increase their power. I think it's also interesting. This is a part of a three-year partnership. Beyond Meat has some of these other partnerships with Pizza Hut with their Beyond Sausage Crumbles, KFC with their Beyond Fried Chicken. That's at only about 10 KFC restaurants for a limited time. You see a lot of these fast-food chains are really testing out their consumer appetite in the US and Canada for these types of offerings. I think it's interesting. I think it's an important space because you see a lot more people are looking for less meat options but essentially I think Beyond specifically, it's a product that it's not that different, it's not that special. I'm sure I can get pushback from this, but most veggie burgers taste the same. Some people will disagree, but most people for the most part will say, they're commoditized. So the competition is only going to get more intense. I think the rhetoric in this space about the excitement with Beyond Meat, the excitement with all of these offerings is a little bit different from the reality of, if it's not Beyond Meat, it could be somebody else. Or if you go to a grocery store, if you're picking Beyond Meat, you're really just looking at Beyond Meat, Impossible, the Whole Foods brand, whatever it might be, you're just picking the cheapest option or the option that looks pretty good.
Now of course I'm itching to get back in FOUR. Wasn't even thinking this way until now.- Chris Hill:Shift4 Payments is not exactly a household name. The company went public in the summer of 2020 and while the stock is up 50 percent since its first day of trading, Shift4 has largely flown under Wall Street's radar. For more on a business that investors might want to take a closer look at, here's Matt Frankel and Jason Moser. Jason Moser:Matt, longtime listeners, though that you and I always enjoy talking stocks, particularly in the financial space. I mean, that's what we've done for so long. This week we're going to take a closer look at a company. It's still relatively new to the public markets. The company is Shift4 Payments, and before we get to what you like about this business, what is it that Shift4 Payments actually does? Matt Frankel:They are a payment processor at heart, but there's so much more than that. They're also a software-as-a-service company and they target specific industries. Their bread and butter is the restaurant business right now. They are a big competitor of Toast, if you know that company. Jason Moser:Yeah. Matt Frankel:They process payments. They have a point-of-sale system. It's actually like a whole restaurant operating system, that a lot of listeners don't know this about me. I came from the restaurant business. That was my first career another lifetime ago. Jason Moser:[laughs]. Matt Frankel:I took a look at what Shift4 offers to restaurants and we had nothing like it. When I was in the business way back in the day, it really just automates the whole thing. It provides technology like if you've ever gone to a restaurant where you could scan a QR code and then pay your bill. Jason Moser:Yeah. Matt Frankel:That's most likely Shift4 was the company behind that. They power these for some of the biggest brands in the business. Applebee's, IHOP, KFC, Denny's are all Shift4 customers. They're also big in the hospitality business, IHOP is a big customer of theirs. They try to be very specialized, which is what makes them a lot different from other payment processors. Square's a competitor, but they're not just all-in on restaurants if that makes sense. Jason Moser:Well, that does make sense, and I'm glad you said that because that was what I was reading about Shift4, it reminded me of huge user set atToast. Really it is that exposure to the restaurant industry. I think one of the things that you like about the business and one of the things I like about it too, it really feels like this is a one-stop shop. I mean, I think you said the key phrase there, operating system. For a restaurant to be able to have an operating system they can rely on, I mean, this is a system that does a number of different things for the restaurants, for the business itself, right? Matt Frankel:Right. It's a land and expand model which will provide one service such as the restaurant software system. One of the big things that differentiates them from Toast is that Toast doesn't have an in-house payment processing option. Them they'll cross-sell them that payment processing option, and they are expanding into new verticals like Gaming is a big focus of theirs right now, where they're building out things for Game. ThatMGMwas their first big get in that space where they're the payment or the infrastructure behind that. What they do is they provide a host of services for these specific industries like restaurants, where there are other competitors, but no one provides a comprehensive solution that they do. That's the secret sauce behind the model. Jason Moser:Yeah. You have a comprehensive solution coupled with a large and growing market opportunity, and then you have a recipe for tremendous potential success. I mean, let's talk a little bit about that market opportunity because, all-in, this is a massive market opportunity. Matt Frankel:Yeah, and I mean, it's tough to quantify and companies throw these trillion-dollar subs around, but they're never actually going to get. Shift4, they think their current market opportunity between all the companies they could go after is about $1.1 trillion in annualized payment volume. Pretty big market so far, they're planning on adding more verticals over time. Just to name a few non-profits are one of the newest things they want to get into. The healthcare business doing the healthcare payments in software solutions, and then technology as SpaceX, StarLink is actually one of their newest clients that has very high long-term potential for obvious reasons. As they build these verticals, they say their market opportunity is going to grow to about $3.7 trillion in payment volume. They're currently at about 50 billion, a very, very small fraction of where they think they could be. I don't see them ever getting into the trillions, at least not anytime soon but the point is that there is room to Ten-X this business and still be at a pretty small market share. Jason Moser:It feels like the leadership story here is one that investors should feel really good about. Is that right? Matt Frankel:For sure? I mean, I'm a big fan of their leadership team. I'd honestly dug into them about a year ago, so I can't remember the names off the top of my head right now but I remember their leaderships highly invested, great compensation structure that really aligns our interest with shareholders. Very shareholder-friendly management is the feel I get from. Jason Moser:Right. Just to be clear, we're talking about Founder CEO Jared Isaac and I think referring to you. I mean, still a young buck, I think in the CEO world. Matt Frankel:I have a whole sheet of stats in front of me, but that name wasn't on there. Jason Moser:Hey, listen, none of us is perfect Matt. None of us is perfect. Listen, that's something we always focus on, at least with leadership. I mean, it's never really these solid reason to invest, but it's always nice to know that you have founders involved there with skin in the game really with the passion to take that business as far as they can. We talk a lot about things we love about this business. Maybe clearly there are things to keep an eye on there. One thing that I go back to, I started thinking, I like the idea that they focus on such specific markets but are you concerned that in time maybe they pursue ancillary markets where they don't necessarily have an edge? I mean, I'm thinking something like a healthcare for example, where regulatory considerations could be a lot higher than something like the restaurant business. Do you feel like there's that opportunity for diversification? I guess, for lack of a better term. Matt Frankel:Yeah, there's a ton of execution risks when you're going into new verticals like that. Jason Moser:Yeah. Matt Frankel:There's a ton of risk involved with just being a specialist, by the way, in say, restaurants. Jason Moser:Sure. Matt Frankel:I mean, Shift4's business was much more affected by the pandemic than saySquareorPayPal. Because what happened to restaurants when the pandemic started. There's risk both ways. I like Shift4 for their core competencies, which are restaurants, hospitality, the things they do really well. I think there's enough room to grow just in those markets as it is. I guess that I mentioned, their current addressable markets about a little over a trillion dollars in annual payment volume. There at about 50. There's a lot of room to grow into their markets that they've already proven they can do. Yes, there is a lot of execution risk there, which is why I alluded to take that $3.7 trillion figure with a big grain of salt. Jason Moser:Yeah. Matt Frankel:Because the healthcare market might not work out for them. StarLink might not be a $100 billion annual revenue stream like they think it's going to be. Things like that but as far as their core business goes, you really can't argue with the success they've had so far. Jason Moser:No. I am glad you said success because I feel like there is a growing gap between the business itself and how the market is treating this company today. Because I mean, the stocks had a tough last 12 months down around 30 percent as we're speaking but generally speaking, I mean, when you look at the business, it's growing. That top line is growing. You've got this opportunity for plenty of other markets to reach there. How do you view this as an investment opportunity for investors? I mean, is this just some other FinTech name where you really got to wait for them to prove their use case or do you feel like there really is the opportunity, the differentiation that makes this an idea that investors should consider? Matt Frankel:Well, Greg, you just mentioned top-line because that answers the question right there. Shift4 has grown its top-line, its total payment volume, which is where it drives most of its revenue at a 37 percent annualized rate over the past five-years. That's higher than Square, PayPal,VisaorMastercard. That's a better five-year growth rate than any of those companies. The growth rate is even higher when you look at that core restaurant business, 52 percent growth in payment volume through their network annualized since 2017. I do think that the use cases being proven out. I mentioned some of the brands that used them. T-mobile Arena is one of their new entertainment brands that picked them up. If you go to that stadium in Las Vegas, you're going to be using Shift4.Caesars is a customer of theirs now.Hilton is a customer of theirs. I think just like this run. I don't like to just sit here and drop names [laughs] but this list of names. Jason Moser:We'd like names. Matt Frankel:Oh yeah, but this list of names really shows what the use case is. The fact that these big companies are picking them up over say, Square or over Toast. It shows that there is a big use case for these platform. Jason Moser:I agree. I think there is a lot to be said for that. Those big customers, they can lead you down a road of picking up a lot of new customers, both small and large. So that's good to hear and Matt it was really great catching back up with you this week. Thanks so much for digging into what really looks like a compelling name in the FinTech space.
<< WATCH LIST >> FOUR- Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) 52.13-0.69(-1.31%) As of 10:13AM EST. HEY LOOK I'M SMART! PayPal (PYPL) -Get PayPal Holdings, Inc. Report shares plunged to a 20-month low Wednesday after the group cautioned that eBay's (EBAY) -Get eBay Inc. Report decision to go with an in-house system payments system would carve more than $600 million from its near-term revenue forecast. EBAY IS A BUY HERE! eBay Inc. (EBAY) NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD 58.35-2.13(-3.53%) As of 10:15AM EST.