We must not forget that many inside Russia are good people. These new conscripts will get wiped out. It is not their fault. They have a crazy master. -
Confusing but I want to believe-- The “Dr. Copper and Fearful Gold” indicator is pointing to rising investor confidence and “stellar” stock-market returns ahead, Leuthold Group Chief Investment Strategist James Paulsen says. Paulsen wrote in a recent note thatthe indicator, which measures the ratio of copper prices (HG1:COM) to gold prices (XAUUSD:CUR), serves as a good proxy for investor sentiment thanks to what each metal’s value signifies about the economy. He said copper prices (HG1:COM) historically represent a leading economic indicator, as many industries use the metal in production. By contrast, gold prices (XAUUSD:CUR) typically go up when investors fear high inflation, recession or excessive market volatility, Paulsen said. As a result, “the ratio of those two prices is a good gauge of relative confidence in the future vs. fear - or, essentially, stock-market conviction.” Paulsen wrote. Right now, the Dr. Copper and Fearful Gold indicator is sitting at just its 13th percentile when measured in historic terms stretching back to 1990: Paulsen said that means “the comparative cheapness of confidence to fear” is lower than it’s been 87% of the time over the past 32 years. “Outside of the 2009 market bottom, the pre-Trump election low in 2016 and the pandemic trough, confidence has never been any cheaper vs. fear than now,” he wrote. “When the copper/gold ratio has been in its lower quartile (like today), forward stock market returns were stellar.” Paulsen said that since 1990, the S&P 500 (SPY) has risen at a 21% annualized rate over the next month any time the indicator has been at its 25th percentile or lower, as it is today. By contrast, the blue chips only gained a 5.3% average annualized rate of return in months when the index sits above the 25th percentile mark:
The tricky language-- a 21% annualized rate over the next month... That's not 21% in month that's divided by 12 right?. Which I can't do.... It's like 3%<-------- But at least we got that!
I've really been into the track and field for a while. But in these stressful times I need something a bit more relaxing. So I've been watching springboard diving.- Instead of the hard crash to the earth and the inner strength of these fine athletes, there's the cooling relief of a gentle splash and picture perfect form-
Depression comes in many forms. Today, with the stock market in meltdown mode, it’s natural to look back at other times of financial woe: The Great Recession of 2008-2009. The bursting tech bubble in 2000. The crash of 1987, never mind 1929 — and all manner of mini-downturns and flash crashes in between. The one that gives me the most dread is the long, soul-sucking slog between 1966 and 1982 — in other words, the 1970s. The stock market went up and down and up and down, but in the end went absolutely nowhere for 16 years (see below.) We have the inflation of the 70's the political upheaval of the 70's and the same space program why not the same stock market?
Cano, One Medical spark buyout interest amid shift to value-based care Sep. 24, 2022 12:00 PM ET Humana Inc. (HUM)AMZN,CVS,UNH,ONEM,CMAX,OSH,CANO,SGFY,AGL,PRVA From Cano Health (CANO) to One Medical (ONEM), the companies exposed to value-based care (VBC) are on a roll amid rising buyout interest as the industry heavyweights look to benefit from a lucrativealternative to a traditional reimbursement model. VBC ties reimbursements to the quality of care delivered, rewarding healthcare providers for both efficiency and effectiveness as opposed to the fee-for-service (FFS) model, which relies on historical bill charges or annual fee schedules. After COVID-19 underscored the drawbacks of the FFS model, companies are pivoting to VBC, which offers better economics amid favorable government policies. The early stage of the pandemic exposed the volume driven FFS system as declining patient volumes led to a substantial decrease in payments, Corinne Lewis, the Program Officer for Delivery System Reform at the healthcare think tank, The Commonwealth Fund, pointed out. "So, providers are recognizing the need to move toward more value-based approaches for more flexibility and protection against future volumeshocks," she toldMedical Economics. In addition, VBC models focusing on members' long-term health outcomes deliver higher profitability to providers. Highlighting its benefits, George Renaudin, Medicare President of health insurer Humana (NYSE:HUM), said that value-based care models deliver a 20% higher contribution margin to the company, reducing total medical costs by an estimated 13.4% compared to original Medicare. Humana (HUM) expects its value-based primary care and home health services to sustain EPS growth beyond 2025. Some government policies are in place to support the shift: In June, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed a 4.2% cut in home health services for 2023. Estimating its impact at $30M, Susan Diamond, HUM's Chief Financial Officer, said at the recent earnings call that the decision has put "more emphasis on value-based payment models." On Thursday, Humana (HUM) was named alongside CVS Health (CVS) as one of the potential buyers for Cano Health (CANO), an operator of a value-based care delivery platform. Meanwhile, HUM's rival UnitedHealth Group (UNH) plans to accelerate its VBC shift, leveraging analytics and decision support tools of the company's Optum unit in a10-year collaboration with Walmart Inc. (WMT). In July, Amazon (AMZN) drove interest in value-based care when the tech giant agreed to acquire One Medical (ONEM), a membership-based primary care organization, for nearly $3.9B. Weeks later, AMZN and UNH were cited as potential bidders to buy Signify Health (SGFY), a company focused on the value-based payment industry, which eventually agreed to be acquired by CVS for nearly $8B early this month. According to experts, the FFS model is unlikely to completely go away partly due to its delivery of certain medical practices, such as vaccinations, effectively. "I don't think fee-for-service will ever be eliminated entirely, because in some cases it can be an appropriate mechanism for incentivizing care that we want to see more of," Commonwealth Fund's Lewis added. However, the stock performance of VBC-leveraged healthcare players indicates otherwise. Oak Street Health (OSH), Privia Health Group (PRVA), agilon health (AGL), CareMax (CMAX), and Cano Health (CANO) have all outperformed the broader market over the past three months,
Stoney! Macau gambling stocks are the flavor of the day. MLCO---> $5.82 +9.8% LVS +7% WYNN +6% GNRC $176.90 --->
And Stoney... lets not forget.... this week we'll see Q4 portfolio re-balancing by the whales. You don't use scanners, but if you did, you'd set them up to flag large block-trades on the buy side this week. Of course Stoney says "I don't use scanners Van they're stupid".... so Stoney will get the info AFTER all his favorite Seeking Alpha writers get the info using scanners, get in, and then blog about it for all the retail rookies a day or so later... and after the smart money has also jumped in.