Some Giant thoughts gone wrong-- 1- Retail over staffed? The failings of poorly run retail has led to this wrong headed banter. Amazon cutting jobs etc. There is an argument going around that retail has over hired. This contrasts COMPLETELY with every merchant I have spoken to-- WE HAVE A WORKER SHORTAGE. 2- Work from Home is dead. Really? Where is everyone then they aint' at the office. 3- the Fed hates stocks. More and more people have come to me with the Fed hates stocks angle. The Fed Put is gone (that's different) The Fed will trash any stock rally... Rally = inflation somehow. This is wrong. When people focus on their portfolios and see how much they are down it has a direct impact on the economy. It's mental. Since we are in a period of STAGFLATION the Fed can't be depressing stocks that much, or they will be adding to the Stag. That doesn't mean the Fed will support stocks far from it but I don't buy that any future rally will be clipped at the knees by the Fed and that's what a lot of hedgies are telling me.
-----> We'll see what today brings. Some are predicting gasoline at $10/gallon. I can't imagine what things would be like then.
Tough to fill the tank no doubt. As gas goes up vitality of the economy goes down. Shouldn't that damper inflation not stoke it.
Remember when you bought SHOO? What I tell you? Deckers was better. SHOO is $34 now. Decker just reported DECK>>>> $260 +$34
Apple should have pretty strong support down here at $138. That's a critical level for it. If it gives by much... bad juju And since it's pretty much part of every index out there... keep an eye on it fwiw.
4300? No way. 4170 +/- a bit is now a hard ceiling on the S&P. I doubt we'll see anything north of that this year Stoney.
See Stoney, here's what's up. And I write this for our Robinhood readers that have never experienced a bear market and/or a pending recession. As a general rule of thumb, sell every 3% upspike, just like we used to btfd for the last year and a half. So today if the SPX makes it to 4025, that'a when you come in short. Pretty easy, but you have to identify levels to define your 3% upmove, it doesn't always happen in one day. That's where it becomes an art, but just like btfd worked, you can ballpark this too and still come out ahead.