Goldman leans to growth picks in either recession scenario Apr. 03, 2023 5:21 AM ET|SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)|IWV, LVS, AMD, NVDA, OLED, MRVL, TTWO, LLY, MPWR, POWI, SLAB, TER, CSGP, FSLR, CHDN, RGEN, DXCM, VICR, ERII, FTNT, AL, ENPH, NOW, PANW, WDAY, MARA, VEEV, CRWD, PCTY, FIVN, PAYC, QRVO, ABNB, PLTR, ZS, EAF, PLL, LTHM, SWAV, SP500, DT, DDOG, SITM, MP, HRMY, U, CVT, SHLS, DOCN, DOCS, CTKB, DH, AMLX, CRDO...|By: Kim Khan, SA News Editor|7 Comments Michael M. Santiago Goldman Sachs is sticking with its S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) target of little change by year end as valuations and earnings face headwinds near term, its equity team said. "Our Long Duration basket has outperformed the Short Duration basket by 6 pp YTD (2% vs. 8%)," strategist David Kostin wrote in a note. "This has created an asymmetry that supports our recommendation ... to own high-margin growth stocks vs. low-margin growth stocks." "If the economy avoids recession, real yields are likely to rise and pose a headwind to low-margin growth stocks," Kostin said. "If the economy enters recession investors will likely rotate toward stocks with 'quality' attributes, including high profit margins." Goldman selected high-margin stocks growth stocks from the Russell 3000 (IWV) excluding Biotech, Financials, Real Estate and Energy with market cap above $1B and revenue of $100M. The stocks by sector are: Communications Services Take-Two (TTWO), second twelve months sales growth consensus 25%, net margin consensus 17% Consumer Discretionary Las Vegas Sands (LVS), 24%, 21% Churchill Downs (CHDN), 15%, 19% Airbnb (ABNB), 15%, 24% Healthcare Amylyx (AMLX), 64%, 37% Harmony Biosciences (HRMY), 25%, 32% Cytek Biosciences (CTKB), 23%, 15% Definitive Healthcare (DH), 19%, 16% Eli Lilly (LLY), 18%, 30% Shockwave Medical (SWAV), 23%, 21% Veeva Systems (VEEV), 18%, 31% Doximity (DOCS), 20%, 26% Repligen (RGEN), 20%, 21% DexCom (DXCM), 19%, 15% Industrials GrafTech (EAF), 28%, 19% Vicor (VICR), 21%, 18% Shoals Technologies (SHLS), 40%, 22% Energy Recovery (ERII), 37%, 19% Air Lease (AL), 16%, 23% CoStar Group (CSGP), 17%, 16% Materials Piedmont Lithium (PLL), 133%, 72% Livent (LTHM), 22%, 37% MP Materials (MP), 44%, 48% Info Tech Marathon Digital (MARA), 25%, 17% Qorvo (QRVO), 18%, 19% Credo Technology (CRDO), 56%, 18% Unity Software (U), 18%, 16% First Solar (FSLR), 29%, 31% Silicon Labs (SLAB), 17% 16% Five9 (FIVN), 19%, 16% Cvent Holding (CVT), 18%, 19% Teradyne (TER), 20%, 24% DigitalOcean (DOCN), 20%, 28% Palantir (PLTR), 19%, 22% AMD (AMD), 15%, 24% Workday (WDAY), 18%, 20% Marvell (MRVL), 17%, 30% Zscaler (ZS), 27%, 17% Power Integrations (POWI), 19%, 21% Palo Alto Networks (PANW), 20%, 19% Paylocity Holding (PCTY), 20%, 22% Enphase Energy (ENPH), 26%, 19% Datadog (DDOG), 30%, 20% Dynatrace (DT), 20%, 22% CrowdStrike (CRWD), 28%, 19% Fortinet (FTNT), 19%, 21% ServiceNow (NOW), 22%, 22% Paycom Software (PAYC), 21%, 26% SiTime (SITM), 32%, 25% Universal Display (OLED), 19%, 34% Monolithic Power (MPWR), 16%, 34% Nvidia (NVDA), 24%, 31% Mohamed El-Erian on why the Fed should pause.
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