The hard part is over': Here's what Goldman Sachs sees in the year ahead as markets and the economy return to pre-2008 conditions Nov 11, 2023, 8:15 AM EST Goldman Sachs' outlook for 2024 is fairly upbeat, with the bank eyeing just a 15% chance of a recession. Goldman Sachs said the economy and investing landscape is returning to a pre-2008 environment. Strategists said the global economy has outperformed expectations in 2023, and disinflation should carry on. Conditions are normalizing as the era of ultra-low rates ends. Goldman Sachs sees a 15% recession probability for the year ahead, and the bank expects a handful of tailwinds to support global growth and investments as the macro landscape reverts to pre-2008 conditions. In a note to clients this week titled, "The Hard Part Is Over," Goldman strategists led by Jan Hatzius highlighted that economies around the world have outperformed even optimistic expectations through 2023. "2024 should cement the notion that the global economy has escaped the post-GFC environment of low inflation, zero policy rates and negative real yields," Hatzius said. "The period since the GFC has often felt like an inexorable move towards lower global yields and low inflation — 'liquidity trap' and 'secular stagnation' were the decade's buzzwords." Policymakers have put an end to the easy-money era, and the transition to higher rates has so far been rocky, as illustrated by high volatility in the stock market, the rapid tightening of financial conditions, and the rising number of "zombie" corporations going belly up. "The big question is whether a return to the pre-GFC rate backdrop is an equilibrium," according to the strategists. "The answer is more likely to be yes in the US than elsewhere, especially in Europe where sovereign stress might reemerge." The Fed pulled interest rates to near-zero in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, but a return to a high-rate environment could spell trouble for heavily indebted firms and broader business conditions. Other Wall Street forecasters, too, have cautioned that a wave of distressed debt and troubled balance sheets will come to the surface in the coming months as tighter financial conditions bite. Charles Schwab has estimated that defaults will peak sometime between now and the first quarter of 2024. Upside for markets Goldman expects returns in rates, credit, equities and commodities to exceed cash in 2024. "The transition [from the easy money era] has been bumpy, but the upside of this 'Great Escape' is that the investing environment now looks more normal than it has at any point since the pre-GFC era, and real expected returns now look firmly positive," Hatzius said. Non-cash assets could outperform cash in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs Inflation should continue to decline in 2024, real household income growth should grow, manufacturing activity will bounce back, and central banks led by the Federal Reserve should become increasingly willing to cut rates, in the firm's view. "We don't think the last mile of disinflation will be particularly hard," Hatzius said. "First, although the improvement in the supply-demand balance in the goods sector — measured for example by supplier delivery lags — is now largely complete, the impact on core goods disinflation is still unfolding and will likely continue through most of 2024." Despite their relative optimism, Goldman strategists said they see "higher-than-normal risks" for 2024. Even if disinflation continues at a steady clip, it's possible that the Fed and other central banks still keep interest rates high for longer than expected. Goldman Sachs says its probability-weighted fed funds forecast is below its modal baseline forecast Goldman Sachs There are also downside risks around growth, the bank said. A recovery in global manufacturing could be delayed, particularly if high rates push companies to normalize inventory levels relative to sales below 2019 levels.
STONEY!!!!! Another Monday, and another "L" on the board as once again the NY Giants get what appears to be their obligatory Sunday afternoon ass-whipping. Barstool Sports Book is giving out $500 bonuses and a free touchdown for anyone that takes these dogs for the win. Apparently the books are askew. TTWO---> $152
--> Advantage Solutions says CEO Peacock buys 30K shares in co Nov. 13, 2023 11:11 AM ET Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) Advantage Solutions (NASDAQ:ADV) disclosed that CEO David Peacock bought 30K class A common stock at $2.08 per share on Nov. 9.
Symbol Last Price Change % Change HOT- CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 200.56 +4.25 +2.16% MNDY monday.com Ltd. 158.10 +17.98 +12.83% NOAH Noah Holdings Limited 12.06 +0.67 +5.88%
Int read- Will big bets on critical minerals pay off?-> in 2017 Forecasts from the International Energy Agency and others have made plain the vast profits that stand to be made in the next few decades from metals such as lithium and cobalt. Yet this has been an extraordinarily treacherous year for that area of the commodities market. How can investors navigate the turmoil to emerge on top — and is it worth the risk? TechMet bets on riding a choppy wave to $1bn Ireland-based investment company TechMet grabbed attention this summer when it announced a $200mn investment round that it said put it “on track to exceed a billion-dollar valuation in the next few months” — without disclosing what its current valuation was. That might be fairly described as typical start-up braggadocio. But not every start-up counts the US government among its shareholders, with a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff helming its advisory board. The interest from Washington, according to TechMet founder and chief executive Brian Menell, reflects the geostrategic importance of the company’s mission: investing in the world’s output of “critical minerals” to power the energy transition — and mitigate a dangerous reliance on China. “The world needs 50 TechMets, yesterday,” Menell told me at his office in London’s Mayfair district. Few other investment firms, however, have the same focus on critical minerals — making TechMet an interesting case study for investors looking to bet on this space. Mike Mullen during his tenure as chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. He now helms TechMet’s advisory board /Menell, a South Africa-born mining veteran, set up TechMet in 2017 to profit from a gathering shift in the world’s natural resources market. Surging global investment in low-carbon energy was set to turbo-charge demand for the minerals required — from battery metals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt, to the rare earth metals used in permanent magnets for wind turbines and electric car motors. But the leading global mining companies were proving slow to rise to the challenge — leaving China to acquire a dominant role in the supply chain for several of the most important critical minerals. Menell’s concern about critical mineral supply has since become mainstream among western governments. The US International Development Finance Corporation in 2020 made an equity investment in TechMet, with retired admiral Mike Mullen agreeing to lead the company’s advisory board. In TechMet’s August funding round, the DFC was joined by London-based hedge fund manager Lansdowne Partners and S2G Ventures, backed by Walmart heir Lukas Walton. Workers at a drilling site operated by TechMet portfolio company Cornish Lithium in Cornwall, south-west England © Tom Skipp/Bloomberg TechMet’s 10 portfolio companies include the UK’s Cornish Lithium and its fellow lithium miner EnergySource Minerals of California; rare earth producers such as South Africa-focused Rainbow Rare Earths; and Brazilian Nickel, which plans to mine nickel in Brazil’s north-eastern Piauí state. Menell argues that projects such as this will be vital if developed nations are to meet their clean energy goals while addressing their dependence on Chinese suppliers. According to the International Energy Agency, China accounts for about 90 per cent of global refining for rare earth metals, and about two-thirds for lithium and cobalt. The IEA predicted in July that, under the climate pledges announced by governments so far, demand for critical minerals will more than double from current levels by 2030. But companies in this space have been taking a bruising of late. The lithium price, which had quadrupled in the 12 months to September 2022, has since given up nearly all those gains, with comparably sharp falls seen for other critical minerals such as cobalt and nickel. Analysts have pointed to a waning of earlier “irrational exuberance” in the market, coupled with a slowdown in Chinese electric car sales and a surge in mining output. Menell insisted that his long-term growth expectations remained intact. “There’s no model, no scenario,” Menell told me, “where these metals do not have to go up in price much, much further and stay up in price much, much longer to incentivise the growth in supply that will eventually . . . balance with the growth in demand.” A Nio electric car in a showroom. Analysts have blamed a slowdown in China’s electric vehicle market for a slump in lithium prices © Qilai Shen/Bloomberg Investors who agree with Menell and want to emulate his strategy will need strong stomachs, after the battering that shares of listed companies in this space have taken this year, as higher interest rates worsened the impact of lower mineral prices. While neither TechMet nor its current portfolio companies — with the exception of London-listed Rainbow Rare Earths — are publicly traded, there are options for risk-hungry investors who view this as an opportunity to buy into the energy transition on the cheap. Battery recycler Li-Cycle, an early TechMet investment that has since gone public, has lost 63 per cent of its market value so far this year. The world’s two biggest lithium producers, Albemarle of the US and SQM of Chile, have slipped by more than two-fifths. Toronto-listed Canada Nickel and Australian nickel producer IGO are down 44 per cent and 27 per cent respectively. “I’m not in any moment worried,” Menell said, “that the basic macro driver of our investment thesis — which is ongoing structural short supply of critical minerals — can in any way not occur.” The question for investors such as TechMet, and for the companies they bet on, is whether they can ride out the ongoing turbulence to secure a serious piece of the long-term spoils. This article has been amended to make clear that Rainbow Rare Earths is listed in London
HERE WE GO-! THRUSTERS ON... Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR)- WE HAVE LIFT OFF! NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. 5.15+0.18(+3.62%) As of 11:41AM EST.