The federal funds futures market on Friday was pricing in a 46% chance of a cut at the Fed's March meeting, and a nearly 80% chance of a cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Chance of a rate cut in March is 0%// What will happen when 46% of the people recognize that? This is really our only problem now. These stupid people. Higher For Longer. Repeat after me. Many investors believe stocks can continue rising in the weeks and months ahead, with the S&P 500 just 4% from making a fresh all-time high. Past rate cycles have shown that stocks tend to climb during the period when monetary policy is “on hold.” The S&P 500 has gained an average of 5.1% in periods that the Fed has paused its rate-hiking cycle and before the central bank’s first cut, according to an analysis of nine such periods by ClearBridge Investments. The S&P 500’s rally has brought it back to around where it stood when the central bank last raised rates in July, "suggesting there could be upside" from current levels, ClearBridge strategists said in a Dec 4 blog post. When we started this whole process of raising rates and folks were freaking out.. I repeatedly said it's when they start lowering that we have to worry. In fact my investments are timed to be pulled when we actually cut. That is your imperfect timing mechanism / That and the election. At the same time, a period of strong gains often sees stocks continuing to push ahead for months, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at The Carson Group. The S&P 500’s 8.9% gain in November put it in the 20 best-performing months since 1950, Detrick wrote in a recent report. The index was higher a year later 80% of the time after those exceptional months, rising 13.3% on average, according to Detrick. Oh boy... 13% from here would be what? 5,985<-- WTF is my math right.... /// I'm not sure at all now what our year end target 2024 should be....
I mentioned last week that for the first time we have to be aware of other staocks participating not just the big Tech/ There were days NVDA lagged. I spotted this trend first and now the numbers are saying-- Yup. You are right./ The stock market is likely to see record highs in early 2024 after an "extremely rare" signal just flashed. That's according to Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick, who highlighted another sign that breadth is improving. "We continue to expect stocks to do quite well and we remain overweight equities," Detrick said. An "extremely rare" signal just flashed in the stock market, suggesting to Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick that record highs are imminent. Detrick highlighted in a Thursday note that more than 60% of all components in the S&P 500 hit a new 20-day high last week. This runs counter to the idea that mega-cap tech companies are driving the bulk of the gains in the stock market. "Last week, we saw a very rare breadth thrust, which suggested many stocks were surging, which tends to be a signal of impending strength," Detrick said. "This is extremely rare and showed a lot of buying has taken place recently, not just in a few large stocks." Since 1972, this rare signal has flashed 15 times, not counting last week's signal. The S&P 500 was higher a year later 100% of the time after the signal flashed, generating an average return of 18%. 100% Chance of 18% gain....? This is feeling like Oak Island. If a similar gain occurs over the next year, the S&P 500 would trade at just above 5,400, which exceeds even the most bullish stock market forecasts. Please Help me come up with a 24' Target!!!!!! (need by Dec 22)
I have been obsessed with the TV show Oak island for it seems like seven years. It is so tantalizing this show. I love treasure, I love seeking it and these guys discover just enough of nothing to keep you interested week after week for way too many years. My wife used to ridicule me after each coin is dug up-- that's all you got! But even she has gotten a bit hooked, she'll watch it now anyway without making fun of the situation. It is very weird that old Roman coins get dug up on this Island. There could of been a world traveling hermit in the 1700's - it is possible and he constantly dropped change from all around the world... but it also possible the Knights of Templar came here and hid stuff..
NPR did this odd story about shoplifting. And Retail Federations fishy numbers and in some ways it is true. You know they go off value of merch and that cost has gone up and so shoplifting total numbers have gone up.. but to say we are not in a full blown problem now is ignorant. I don't understand the value in parsing numbers and showing things aren't as bad as they say-- we see it. We see it.
What is it about this time of year that makes so many people die. It's amazing one after another -- now we have lost Ryan. This is a rare clip--- Lets hope that's it! No more deaths-- can we just have a Merry Christmas? RIP
After picking up 4,000 viewers in a week we have now added double that- 8,000 views in a week!!!!! I know what you are saying: Something is fishy at ET-- they have a list of most viewed threads each week and that list has a bunch of 1,000 view names and here we have proof of 8,000. What gives. I wish I knew.- Views: 158,561
Who doesn't like the concept of a flying car? These ARCHR and JOBY aircraft are not quite that but they are real. And as I have been doing research on the EVTOL space for quite some time now, IN DOING SO I have continually run into parts made by old school Honeywell.. Guess what. ---------THIS AIN'T YOUR DADDY'S HONEYWELL-------------------- Vertical Aerospace’s VX4, which has a projected range of 100 miles (161 km) and 150 mph (241 km/h) cruise speed, will feature Honeywell’s fly-by-wire and cloud-enabled Anthem avionics system, while the Lilium Jet will utilize Honeywell’s Anthem and fly-by-wire controls, and “electric jet engines” developed in partnership with Honeywell and Denso. Honeywell also is providing navigation and sensor technology for Pipistrel’s uncrewed Nuuva V300 long-range autonomous cargo aircraft. The aircraft will be equipped with Honeywell’s attitude and heading reference system (AHRS) and air data module (ADM). The UAV is being designed to carry loads up to 1,000 lb (460 kg). “We have other arrangements we hope to soon announce,” said Jia Xu (pronounced Jha Zu), CTO of Honeywell’s AAM business. Asked why Honeywell entered the all-electric aircraft field, Xu said, “We recognized that this sector needs Honeywell to provide primary flight control and other systems… To make the system work, you need a fly-by-wire (FBW) system that interprets pilot’s actions and translates that into an integrated aircraft actuation response.” Honeywell’s FBW system is one-tenth the size of a standard FBW system (see “Honeywell Goes ‘All In’ on Urban Air Mobility,”Vertiflite, Jan/Feb 2020). Business Case The interview with Xu pivoted from Honeywell’s advanced technology to making a business case for eVTOL aircraft and the numerous players currently vying for a piece of the market. “Do we expect all these companies to succeed?” asked Xu. “No. There will be a group that has the financial backing, talent and partnerships to succeed. We are seeing those leaders emerging.” Some technological challenges remain, he said. Will the batteries and motors be good enough to power successive eVTOL operations and will the flight range remain limited? “Many of the initial technical questions have been solved,” said Xu. “The challenge now is to move toward certification and initial operations.” https://evtol.news/news/honeywell-multi-faceted-evtol-provider