http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={51C9E488-5DAA-4197-B943-9A5FE83E9E88}&siteid=mktw "A new academic study has found that a not-insignificant number of investment newsletters are able to successfully time the stock market." [this is especially for our resident EMH'er, vlad]
The paper, upon which the article is based, may be found here: http://www.eea-esem.com/papers/eea-esem/eea2002/1947/newsletters paper.pdf Regards Bernd Kuerbs
Thanks. Much appreciated ...but I can't download it. Is it just me or is something wrong with the link?
Works fine for me. Try it this way: copy and paste this string into your browser address window "http//www.eea-esem.com/papers/eea-esem/eea2002/1947/newsletters%20paper.pdf" and remove quotes. Regards Bernd Kuerbs
Babak, If you right click on the link and do save target as and put it in a file folder you should be able to view it using Adobe Reader. For some reason about 2 months back I started getting this error message when I tried opening PDF files on my computer.
Investment advisors as rated by Investors Intelligence, found that only 28.4% were bullish, and 43.2% were bearish. Wow, what a little rally will do to the sentiment..... currently, bulls - 49.4%! bears - 24.7% The bearish number is just off the 5 year low of 22.6%. The letter writers were all wrong once again at the botttom, and now have swung 180 to the bullish side. What does this tell you about the current rally continuing? Right
Babak - Be sure you have the latest Adobe Acrobat Reader version installed on your computer and in order to open a PDF in place in your browser, you have to be allowing ActiveX object activation and scripting in your browser option settings.
Thanks guys. It works now. Must have been a connection (ISP) issue of some kind. Getting back to the topic at hand. I did a similar research paper in my last year of bachelors. Similar in that both my paper and this one tackles 'stickiness'....something which simply should not exist (theoretically). I got an A+ in case you cared.
that's good question re this study: wouldn't just about any ole method, including dart throwing and it's cousins, have made money the last 10 years?
vvv, you're absolutely right. The study covered about 20 years worth of data (mostly a bull market interrupted by some small bear mkts). But when I did the study I compared and measured my strategy (stickiness) through Jensen's Alpha, Sharpe ratios, etc. It outperfomed (even after taking risk into account). It was horribly complex with formulas flying around everyewhere. I think there was a student t distribution in there somewhere also.