I am very strongly considering it. I'll post my exact entry data for all to see if I go for it. The fact that oil was not up significantly on Friday on the Israel-Iran issue, nor today, on the Nigeria and North Sea issues....I think this long trade is running out of steam. Inventory data this week is going to be particularly interesting. All forces are uniting against oil bulls - Democrats, Republicans, most industries... ...and voters are mad as hell and November is only 5 months away!!!
I own DUG (shorts oil stocks not oil) and short DEE (more of a commodity short) Next position im taking when oil does run to 140+ is DTO. All you need is a little time, look at what happened to the high flying homebuilders during the real estate boom, look at them now, some in the single digits, some down 60% to as much as 75%+ off their highs, when oil DOES correct it will worth holding onto DUG, DEE and eventually DTO. Its going to happen soon, with the US in a recession demand for oil and all related commodities is drifting lower especially in the other countries which are experiencing a slowdown as well now. Short Emerging markets and commodities. When I tune into cramer and listen to him talk up nearly every commodity stock its time to sell, he did the same thing with tech in 1999 and 2000.
We need this kind of leadership during the early '80s to save the CAD (Canadian Dollar) from the free fall. Prime Minister Brian Mulroney declared categorically, âWe will not allow Chicago speculators to determine the value of our currency. Our currency is solid and we will not permit it to fall apart because of a bunch of gamblers.â If we have this kind of leadership from both White House and OPEC then oil must fall down... If it's really due to speculation as Saudi has argued. I suspect that the real speculator is the OPEC themselves. They were playing with the output since oil were trading around $60.
By Lo take a positions soon, oil prices will peak and drop like a rock, so quick you will be in aweeeeeeeeeee, ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...... It happened with Gold in the 80's, tech in 2000 and that housing bubble in 2006, its going to happen to oil and the rest of the commodities, I hate repeating myself but short, short, short the commodities. Once the federal reserve finally decides to fight inflation and raise rates 1, 2, 3, 4 times, commodities will be 30%+ off their highs.
Chrysler might sell a couple of these if gas falls to $2 a gallon. American corps are always praised as being so great. Well thats all ok for the propaganda spinners but in real life they are usually only FORCED to innovate, modernize etc. Is it any wonder they lost the WHOLE luxury mkt to the overseas car makers? Right, they screwed that up also for lack of vision blinded by now profits. http://thewheeldeal.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/06/18/dodge-challenger-srt8/
Exactly. And those "daydreamers" like S2007S are only fooling themselves. Lending rates show that the credit crunch continues and the banking system still fragile. Rate hikes are pretty rare during an election year and housing is still extremely weak. And finally, a flattening yield curve would put pressure on bank profits. Thus, the FED will not be raising rates anytime soon. Keep dreaming . . . S2007S
Well the crying bulls over the past 10 months got more rate cuts then they could ever imagine THIS is why we are in this position. Actually you can blame greenspan for the historical low interest rates back 5-6 years ago that created this credit crisis. If anyone thinks low interest rates are going to fix the problem you are a complete idiot. They think by lowering rates to historical lows is going to prop the economy back up, ITS NOT, NOT anytime soon. This market is headed further down, along with the economy thats already in a recession. Bernanke has nothing left to give the bulls, just like I said months ago that there would be no catalyst for this market after the biggest catalyst (rate cuts) would be finished. They are now done with their rate cuts, and what did we create in the process, SKYROCKETING COMMODITY PRICES, and SKY ROCKETING INFLATION, how great is that. He will eventually have to raise rates to fight off heavy inflation and falling dollar and I give a 99% chance of a 1/4 rate hike by the end of 2008. Anyone who thinks this is a bull market and not a bear market, anyone who thinks were not in a recession and that this is a goldilocks economy is a FOOL.