You are wrong You can definitely have weak US economy and strong Chinese & Indian economy and also high oil prices together which is what is going on right now. US consumes less than %20 of all oil in the world right now. Give it 10 years, the ratio will be less than %5 so the strength of US economy will be meaningless.
Exactly. As Asia rises, the US loses its power over the price of commodities, and can easily experience stagflation. Stagflation, properly understood, is the process of an economy losing ground to others. Central bank actions can only either accelerate or slow down the underlying process. Anyway, I don't think that's necessarily inevitable over the long term for the US. Once the cost gets high enough, substitution and conservation will take over with a vengeance. Medium term we do have a problem.