Considering the fact that the last 2 months the monthly employment numbers have been completely the opposite of expectations we are looking to get short the USD infront of the number. the fact is from a technical perspective the EUR/USD has broken the downtrend on the the 1 hr, 4 hr, 8, hr and ther DAILY. First pullback to 1.2025 - 50 range should be an area of support. Draw a trendline from the lows of the last 10 days to draw the uptrend line from the bottoms. Big problem is the fact that gold is down $5.50 as I write this and as you all know there is an 80% correlation gbetween the USD and Gold. main reason is the fact that gold transactions are in USD and the fear factor. With respect to our gameplan to be long into the number, part of the reason is contrarian, part of the reason is buying the pullback and the main reason is risk reward. If the usd is rallying into the number the upside will be limited BUT if the number comes out bad and the USD has rallied into the number the upside will be at least 100 to 150 pips. be short 5 to 10 minutes into the number, try to get a good entry point and put a stop 15 to 20 pips from the market 5 to 10 seconds before the number comes out. Remember guaranteed stops at FXCM/REFCO! these analysts always get it wrong so I'de rather play that they will get it wrong again.
Okay, I constantly get gamed by this damn number and usually start 50K in the hole at 8:31 am . So make sure you do the opposite of this message. Last time, some greedy bastard (probably at Goldman, remember the 30-year's?) thought he could shave a few seconds off the news embargo, and the futures rose just ahead of the report. So I'm thinking HAH, head fake. So I short that spike, and curtains... So what about tomorrow? We're going to get similar action before 8:30 am but this time it really will be a head fake. Short any mofo spike up!
In our opinion there is no way that the number will be leaked again. the amount of outrage will keep the idiots at the treasury from leaking it. If they did heads will fly. But I can understand the concern.
What do you mean the "idiots at the treasury"? The report is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at exactly 8:30 am to the public but is released under a news embargo to select news organizations, such as Reuters (I believe they were responsible for the early headline last time). And yes, because this number will be tightly controlled this time, any futures spike will be bogus. But again, my 1 for 120 track record on this number speaks for itself.
Look.. read to what u are saying. You are in no shape qualified to give any type of advice. You wanna give ideas and strategies which really have no edge regardless.. and you dont even know who releases the unemployment #? What a joke. The more you guys talk the less credibilty u have. --MIKE
My apologies, the bureau of statistics but it was definitely leaked out and we do not anticipate that happening again. So having a position close to the number 5 minutes or less should be close enough so that if you are wrong you will lose 20 to 30 pips but make 100 to 150 if you we are right. good risk reward and a contrarian play. if you have a heard mentality then play the other way. sheep get slaughtered!
We will see if it works mike. We expect an apology if it does. No point going tit for tat with respect to knowledge of the market. again it might not work but the risk reward in our opinion gives us an edge. with all the numbers that have come out, especially wed ISM non-manufacturing the report should be good BUT if the USD rallies into it how much has been built in at this point. EUR/USD looks to Fib retrace to 1.2350. Thats a 50% retracement from the high to the recent low. do the chart work and tell us we are wrong. 1.2003 is the 38.2% retracement as well. As we keep posting we will see how you feel about our credibility. would love for you to send us your resume
What ever happened to sitting on your hands until the news is disseminated? If you have tight stops during this release you will get shaken out for sure only to watch it move back in your direction. I am no FX trader but have dabbled and it seems to me that a 15 or 20 pip move can happen in a heartbeat. Whatever...good luck!
Jack, on this number and pretty much only this number there is usually a straight up or down move but usually on other numbers you are right.