Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss

Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss



Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.

Gallup ads:

Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexami...-state-numbers-predict-huge-obama-loss/352881

 

So rather then using a head to head match up poll you use an approval poll,even though someone might not approve of Obama but might still vote for him because they approve of the GOP candidate even less

 

KKK47,

The article I posted pertains to the election on a state by state basis. The RCP average does not. There is a difference. The election will be won or lost on a state by state basis (i.e., Electoral College).

 

Now come on, apples and oranges. Of course Obama has a lower rating than we would all hope for. But, since 50% of the public 'have' to disapprove of everything he does, the pols is a foregone conclusion. Even Obama supporters, even me, aren't real happy with how things have gone. He could have been a lot stronger.

Doesn't mean they're not going to vote for him as opposed to what is being presented by the Republicans.


c

 

I am not posting every state by state poll but here are a few examples

Your poll shows Obamas approval below 50 % in states like Florida,Pennsylvania,North Carlina and Nevada,yet in polls that asks directly will you vote for Obama or Romney,Newt etc Obama is ahead in all those states because people who might not approve of Obama will still vote for him because they approve of the GOP candidate even less

 

The wildcard is the veep. If Romney is smart, he'll choose Christie. That would actually almost guarantee a victory in Nov based on NJ going red, PA almost certainly doing so, and even NY being in play. CT would also be tough, and NH would be likely to go red too. Obama wouldn't repeat in Indiana anyway, so that's another one flipping from blue to red.

Unless of course the Dems hit them hard on Medicare. They need to be absolutely merciless on that.

 

Romney will end up with a huge bump in the polls regardless of whether he picks Rubio, or Christie, at this point it is to close to call, as there is to much that can still happen, plus the second it comes down to Romney vs. Obama all of the right wing people who are hesitant about Romney will jump on board with him.

Given the fact that the incumbent is generally a huge favourite in presidential elections, Romney has to like where he is standing at the moment in a statistical tie with Obama.

I think Obama is a slight favourite right now, but so much can change that there is really no way to to predict it at this point in mye eyes.

 

the dems will go after rubio on the natural born citizen issue.

since his parents were not naturalized until after he was born, we would not be sure if he is eligible until the supreme court gives us a definition of NBC.

 

That is the real question. Does Romney choose Christie and go for the Northeast Obama block, or does he choose Rubio and go for the Hispanic vote and completely lock up Florida.

IMO, without FL a GOP win is almost impossible. There is one route though, if FL goes for Obama. It is very likely that North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan would go for Romney by a small margin.

Nevada and Colorado will go for Romney too. They were already close in '08 and Romney would have an incredible Mormon grass roots organization in both states.

That puts it @ Obama 284 vs Romney 254.

So if he doesn't get Florida, then Romney must get Iowa and New Jersey, which he could do with Christie on the ticket. Or he could go with Rubio and lock in FL, which would allow a loss in Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado, and still get a narrow victory.

Of course, Virginia also has a very high probability of switching to red this year. Michigan is the tough battle. Romney is popular there, but Obama bailed out the auto sector while Romney said he wouldn't have saved them.

 

Then Rubio is inelgible by the current understanding of the law. We don't need that problem on the ticket.