This election is going to end up in a courtroom. You would expect an incumbent to be ahead this close to the election. However, you would epect the opposition to be ahead if the country is fraught with economic and financial problems. Either way, we should not be in a dead heat right now. One of these two should be comfortably out of the margin of error right now.
same poll Romney up by 4 among likely voters. http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx