G-7 and IMF

Discussion in 'Economics' started by drsteph, Apr 23, 2006.

  1. Both the G-7 and the IMF met this weekend, with apparently some significant results.

    1. G7 to allow Japan to continue to tighten


    2. After what was probably an unproductive meeting between Bush and Hu, the big guns are being called in to force China to revalue and ease the trade deficit lest it upset the reserve currency status of the dollar (& its alternative, the Euro)


    3. Further adding to the pressure on China to revalue, the IMF is being called in as the new G7!



    4. And check THIS out!!!


    5. Note the above which allows the IMF to monitor and potentially enforce trade disagreements. Considering the disaster of the doha round of trade talks currently set to go useless as of 2006 when the president's authority to unilaterally negotiate expires, this is probably looked upon as a means to end the doha round and gain some useful results.

    6. Note that pressure can only be applied by the IMF in such cases where there are outstanding loans owned by the IMF or world bank. What is the BRIC's exposure to the IMF/World Bank?

    So... you have until September to set up your trades. If you buy what these reports are saying, how do you plan your macro strategy? Aside from long China equities (a no-brainer), what else?
  2. I would suspect that the dollar is set to start a significant downtrend, buy gold/silver.
  3. It's funny the whole group has taken China on.

    There is a article in barron's this weekend that mentions the Yuan revaluation spectacle.

    It compared it to when Japan revalued it's Yen in the 80's because of US pressure and the terrible consequences it had for the country, which is just finally getting back together.

    A Chinese "pop" could really hurt. Wonder if these guys really know what they are asking for....

    Never a dull moment in this business.......

  4. Once debts are paid...the IMF has no further influence....

    The IMF will never overcome politics....

    The IMF has implemented ruinous policies to the developing countries...and are always a big big negative politically...

    The IMF will never tell China what to do....and now that Brazil and Argentina are rid of them...they would never go back to them...

    Because along with the loan come unwanted US demands that are good for the US ...and bad for the local voting population...

    No...the IMF will not be a solution....besides where is it going to get the kind of money that the US is going to need in the near future??

    The IMF will never represent a politically favorable climate....