My 2 cents - if you knew, you knew. Helps to live in USA to understand. Otherwise best to move along.
Last 3 election cycle Sept-Dec performance: Year Sept-Oct Nov-Dec 2020 -6.5% +14% (part of this was the Pfizer/mRNA vaccine) 2016 -2.2% +5.2% 2012 -0.1% +0.8 I think 2024 looks a lot like the 2016 cycle.
(CNBC) The bottom line Yeo Boon Ping | Monday September 30 2024 Do you remember? The past four Septembers have not been kind to stocks, with the S&P 500 dropping at least 4%. Even when the broad-based index jumped more than 24% over the course of 2023, it still lost 5% during September. Not this time. Despite the S&P retreating 0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite losing 0.39% on Friday, both indexes ended the week about 0.6% and 1% higher, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had a more impressive showing, climbing 0.33% for its sixth consecutive positive day and closing at yet another all-time high. The three major U.S. indexes have thus far posted three straight positive weeks. With just one trading day left in the month, it’s almost certain they’ll finish September in the green. Stocks’ defiant showing this September was helped by positive sentiment generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s jumbo rate cut and upbeat economic data. The PCE price index, which tracks the amount consumers spend on goods and services, came in cooler than expected. Relatedly, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for September rose to a better-than-forecast 70.1 from 67.9 in August. “All quiet on the inflation front,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may be slowing, there’s no indication it’s falling off a cliff.” In fact, growth is far from “falling off a cliff.” Second-quarter gross domestic product grew at 3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Even better, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast estimates third-quarter growth to touch 3.1%. While no one is sure how long this period of golden dreams and shiny days can last, it’s hard to deny stocks are dancing in September.