FX view for Q1 2013, EUR/USD and RUB

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Iron Dog, Jan 8, 2013.

  1. Iron Dog

    Iron Dog

    Here is the brief summary.

    Animal of the quarter: Bos taurus, the domestic bull, the most banal of the bovine, is exactly the kind of animal which looks natural within this approach while also reflecting our market view.

    On the US debt, rating agencies: Now that the Federal Budget for 2013 has been signed and the relative consensus regarding The Can has become clear, the pending decisions of the rating agencies, of which the analysts focus on Moody's, whatever they come out to be, can hardly influence the expectations regarding the economic growth in 2013.

    On the US economy: we expect a reduction in the market demand for USD as a safe haven currency.

    On the Europe: the global economic stimulation leads to increased demand for European goods and thus to increased demand for EUR, while the American QE3 increases the USD amount exported by the US to the world markets. Besides, European OMT decreases the systemic risks in the Euroland. The remaining interest rate differential in favor of EUR -- and we do not expect rate cuts from the ECB in the first quarter of 2013 -- increases the relative attractiveness of EUR under the conditions of QE3. The volume of EUR/USD currency swaps between the Fed and the ECB has dropped 8 times in 2012, indicating a reduction in the USD liquidity demand in Europe.

    Therefore the background economic process is bullish for EUR/USD.

    On Russia and BRIC: We expect an improvement in the investment climate in China. 2013 will quite possibly become the year of the emerging markets, which implies an increased demand for the currencies of these markets. The rise in the popularity of BRIC will indirectly enhance the market demand for RUB via theme and index investing under the BRIC brand. The background economic process will support the price of the Russian commodity exports, while the convertation of the export revenues will support RUB.

    On the correlation analysis: no sound of the Pied Piper's pipe yet. More details at the link: http://en.maragingpartners.ru/index...-forecast-for-q1-2013-eur-usd-usd-rub-eur-rub