Fx Time Projection/Counts

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Wallace, Apr 30, 2004.

  1. There are several methods of fx time forecasting — projecting time targets, often using 2 crossing lines such as various trendlines, MAs, Stochastic and similar indicators.

    While the fibonacci ratio is very accurate in projecting price targets, it appears to fail when used to project accurate fx time targets, or rather, the Fibonacci number series fails.

    The following is the use of the Lucas numbers fibonacci series to both count and project time targets, and, the invitation for others to contribute their method/s of time projection to this thread.

    While the Fibonacci numbers series work well on stocks, futures etc, they fail when attempting to use them on fx currency pairs, what does work — for me at least is using the Lucas numbers fibonacci series, 1 3 4 7 11 (14) 18 (22) 28/29 36 47 54 61 76.

    For the most part time counts/projections are made on the 60 min and Daily charts, plus 4H and Weekly.
    Counting with Lucas numbers applies to bars and (Elliott) price Waves.
    Key numbers used are 3/4, 7, 11, 14, 18, 28. No formula per se is used such as the natural fibonacci numbers progression that may be applied to stocks etc, rather counts and wave formation imply a completion/direction change to the current movement.

    My only explanation for Lucas rather than Fibonacci numbers applying to fx trading is that the fx market is 24x7 (online brokers notwithstanding) whereas stocks etc are '8'x5.

    When counting one has to take into account that a 4th, 7th, 11th bar etc may be the 'bar after', which may be the HH/LL but is actually the turn, and, is included as 1 in the next count. Also take note of HC/LC.

    14 is an interesting number, not a Lucas number excepting 7+7, in numerology when reduced 1+4=5 is the number of Change, and often the 'change trend' bar. 22 appears sometimes at the end of a move though seldom, but more often than not, 28 rather than 29 is the key count/bar.

    While the 4H chart compresses data so more of the price movement can be seen on screen and is serviceable for Lucas counts, because of the 4 hours it contains in the bar it's not recommended to use for trading time counts since turns often occur within the bar and not seen, unlike the 60 min chart.

    When it comes to trading, several components confirm the end/beginning of a move, having a time/bar count is a particularly useful addition.

    As to cycles, none exist that I know of that may be applied with any accuracy to fx.

    of interest: http://www.fin-ware.com/article2.html
  2. US$ Index Weekly detail
  3. EUR Weekly update
  4. Updated Weekly count.
  5. eur - usd goes to 1.27-1.29 by mid summer ?

    what if your count is wrong ? what will tell you that ?

    good luck with your method and please correct me if I am wrong

    in my understanding of your chart
  6. great article. Very interesting
  7. Hello SethArb, thanks for your post.

    Please accept my apologies, I've obviously created confusion with the Weekly chart.

    White 28/22 Red 18 Lucas counts do not also indicate projected price levels, only Lucas counts.
    Price projection is limited currently to the Grey fibo Retracement levels.

    The 'EUR Weekly update' chart of 05-05-04 11:21 AM has a scenario of higher prices, created in part because of the much touted 1.36 price target. However, as the attached Monthly chart shows, even tho synthetic, price Retraced to 76.4 during Lucas count 29 months, has a Lucas count of 7 Waves, AB reversed, and July will be Lucas count 7 down when the Feds begin raising Interest Rates, the US $ will presumably grow stronger and EUR/USD continues to decline.

    Revising projections is a combination of Lucas counts, EWave counts/formations on M, W, D and 60 min charts, much as the projection is first made, revised 'on the go', particularly if the projection is not being fulfilled — and perceptive questions are asked of me.

    Trust I've answered your questions SethArb, and again, apologies for causing the confusion.