FX spot fwds and vol calls

short AUD/USD @ 1.0506. Would prefer to have been long USD/CAD @ around 1.002 but need some risk off exposure, having not taken a ES short today. And short XLE at avg of 69.47 small size as well, comms have had a good run here.

 

yea i would have been liked to been long USD/CAD at the low (to the pip) also... i dont even think it printed 0002... well it did but only the bid... couldn't have been filled... low 1.00027

 

covered eur/aud @ 1.1696. will look to that again if euro squeezes on ECB and pops 1.1750...

took profit on enough aud to pay for a stop out on usd/cad.

trying to work this before the events.

 

Hearing from Azumi under 78 UJ.

"Japan's government is worried about exports._ BoJ rates are virtually at zero and the central bank has eased monetary policy via asset purchases. Finance Minister Jun Azumi has said he is "ready to do what needs to be done". But he has rejected calls from some lawmakers for the BoJ to buy foreign bonds as a substitute for currency intervention. Azumi says that would breach the finance ministry's jurisdiction on FX policy. Bank of Japan meets Aug. 8-9."

thought that might be handy.

This means his way is FX intervention I guess.

 

yet they can blow money on ETFs, and that's all ok. yeah, this news is from May, but that was when yen was topping, and the intervention talk seemed to go away as the move down happened. "don't make us buy more AAPL! we'll do it."

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-08/markets/31609040_1_etf-stock-market-central-bank

"Since then, the Bank of Japan has bought almost ¥1 trillion worth of ETFs — along with another ¥78.9 billion in REITs — and has an additional ¥642 billion to spend on the stock funds after raising the program’s size at it last policy meeting in April.

The central bank emphasizes that the program has only broad goals such as supporting interest rates and reducing risk premiums, rather than supporting financial markets.

Jefferies Japan’s head of Japanese strategy Naomi Fink says that while the ETF purchases are really part of the broad push to reflate asset prices in the deflation-plagued country, they do “provide a bit of a backstop, when they think they can curb the downside” for the market.

“Still, it’s a very small amount,” Fink said of the ETF purchases. “It’s more designed to bolster sentiment ... [and] it works best when sentiment is fragile.”
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interesting

 

took another long aud/usd ahead of the ECB at 1.0460 after data. stop @ 0420 keeping uj and ucad on.

target 0500 area and above.

 

If I didn't take that long aud/usd last night and take decent profit at 0530 area, I would probably take half off on usd/cad right here, but it's essentially a free trade at stop-out...

I am thinking maybe I should take some profit anyway? Those parity barriers look doomed...

I was looking for 1.0075-1.0100 for the first target on USD/CAD, but I doubt we'll break the range before the ECB but who knows.

Also have my eye back on eur/aud here... doubt thats going anywhere ahead of the ECB either.

for this aud/usd trade I am watching the s&p futures closely along with the oil, $ and gold... then again I always am.

Doesn't seem like QE was what we were running so hard on?? Most didn't expect an announcement until sept anyway from what I gather.

 

half off the aud/usd long at 1.0519... letting the rest roll, higher target 0550 after ECB.

little profit on stop-out worst case.

 

sweet... Thinking we might pullback to the 0300's now into the weekly close and/or possibly consolidate here. Watching pullbacks and 1..0424 level.